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UL is a 2.5 point favorite (Updated 9/14)

Ajcane8 said:
Again - "Vegas" always winning has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with whoever “Vegas” thinks is going to win any individual game - especially when the spread in that game is 2 points. In fact, if you were so inclined, you could’ve made a lot of money betting against “Vegas” in 5 or 6 of our games last year.

Books LOVE when favorites lose, especially big ones. I guarantee you the guy running Caesars was rooting for Georgia Tech more than most people here.
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Actually, Vegas loves games where the line doesn't need to change much, if at all, and the $ comes in equally spread between the two teams. Vegas keeps their 10ish % and are happy. Vegas loses in the short run when they open a bad line and the $ comes in very unequally. When they need to shift the line to attract money on the light side, they expose themselves to an in between final score that can have them paying out lots of bets on both sides. In the longer run, when you get to keep 10% on the total action, you're going to win.
 
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TpaBayFlyFisher said:
Vegas doesn’t pick anything other than the line’s starting point. Thereafter, it is the betting public that picks their favorite. But, the fact that the public is favoring UL has caused Vegas to increase the “price” paid to bet on UL. I still like Miami in a high scoring game. As always turn-overs will determine the outcome. But, everyone knew that already.

The U 30 UL 27.
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That shows you the sad state of affairs here when 30-27 is considered a "high scoring" game.
 
The 58 really does seem low. Last year's game went way over that. UM looks to have a more explosive offense this year, and UL has a second year in the system. Thought both teams held back to bit in the openers, after getting leads.

Maybe the lines are depressed across the board, because of the general football incompetence last saturday.
 
Here is something I posted last year which breaks down why any bookmaker/Vegas/offshore does not want equal money wagered on both sides:

If a bankroll is sufficient - and we all know Vegas has a sufficient bankroll - why would a bookie move a number that has attracted a large amount of squares? Vegas views each game as one part of a larger series, forming the long run. The casino knows it will win ~50% of those imbalanced games and therefore it plays out mathematically just as though the casino had every game balanced.

The "equal action" way with a 2-game scenario:
$10,000 on Miami -6.5
$90,000 on UVA +6.5

Those who think Vegas wants equal money on both sides are suggesting that casinos will call off $80k of its action and "guarantee" itself $1k profit.

Game 2:
$10,000 on VT -6.5
$90,000 on UNC +6.5

They again suggest that casinos call off $80k to guarantee just $1k on vig of $10k. Thus, according to them, casinos have zero risk and guarantee a grand total profit of $2,000 of $220,000, a hold of 1%.

The real way it's done:
$10,000 on Miami -6.5
$90,000 on UVA +6.5
$10,000 on VT -6.5
$90,000 on UNC +6.5

The casino keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the time, regardless how heavy or imbalanced the action is. It splits here, losing $79k on the UVA game and winning $89k on the VT game for a net profit of $10k of $220k, a net hold of 4.54%. 4.54% > 1%
 
Something I've noticed listening to podcasts/radio and reading articles is that while some people are concerned about the offense's progression from last year, they are even more concerned about Manny as a head coach. I tend to hear more concerns about his ability, or lack thereof, than how good the team may be but I guess those go hand-in-hand. A lot of"Satterfield is the superior coach, but Miami is more talented".
 
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NCCanefan said:
Actually, Vegas loves games where the line doesn't need to change much, if at all, and the $ comes in equally spread between the two teams. Vegas keeps their 10ish % and are happy. Vegas loses in the short run when they open a bad line and the $ comes in very unequally. When they need to shift the line to attract money on the light side, they expose themselves to an in between final score that can have them paying out lots of bets on both sides. In the longer run, when you get to keep 10% on the total action, you're going to win.
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I’ll just say I’ve been told, by someone who knows, that this isn’t wholly true. Generally, lines don’t “correct” to simply even out the action.
 
Ajcane8 said:
I’ll just say I’ve been told, by someone who knows, that this isn’t wholly true. Generally, lines don’t “correct” to simply even out the action.
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Why would they move to even out the action? When they don't they become bettors on the outcome. Otherwise they just keep cashing 10% of total take which is a huge number.
 
NCCanefan said:
Why would they move to even out the action? When they don't they become bettors on the outcome. Otherwise they just keep cashing 10% of total take which is a huge number.
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They’re not getting 10% by getting equal action, see my above post. They move the line for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it’s an adjustment when injury news breaks. Sometimes they’re betting, not booking, which is one reason why every casino doesn’t offer the same lines. But the main reason they move the lines aside from an injury is because they took a sizable bet from a sharp. That’s why online they use sophisticated software to know who their winners are and why in the casino you have to use a player’s card. They know who is betting what.
 
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NCCanefan said:
Why would they move to even out the action? When they don't they become bettors on the outcome. Otherwise they just keep cashing 10% of total take which is a huge number.
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I’m just saying - the 50% myth is an old wives tale. It’s simply impossible to get equal action on every game. The vig (which isn’t 10% of the total number) is more an operational cost than a money maker.

That’s what I’ve been told, anyways. And I have no reason to doubt it.
 
407cane said:
i get the win prediction but you honestly think that only 30 points going to be scored in this game?
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No. I said we win by about 13-17 points. I think we score 40 plus and they get about 4 TDs.
 
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LoungeLord said:
LOL, this must be your first day here. It was said so many times this pre-season you couldn't even track it.
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Ok fine, he's new. But maybe instead of harassing him, you could show him the way we do things here and make him feel welcome. I really don't understand why you guys feel the need to bash other Canes just because they're new.
 
CanesFan93 said:
Something I've noticed listening to podcasts/radio and reading articles is that while some people are concerned about the offense's progression from last year, they are even more concerned about Manny as a head coach. I tend to hear more concerns about his ability, or lack thereof, than how good the team may be but I guess those go hand-in-hand. A lot of"Satterfield is the superior coach, but Miami is more talented".
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At moment that is true compared to Satterfield vs Diaz as HC. Its not even close, Diaz did less with more then tried to sell this is a complete rebuild while getting blown out by FIU and the like, got called out on it and folded like a cheap suit. Off every bye week team looked like a complete mess. Satterfield took a complete mess at UL with 2 wins and turned it around and won 8 games and bowl game..

Verdict is still out on Diaz, thats not even including him looking and corching sideline celebrations and giving gold stars to players who dance/show enthusiasm for plays.. Last year was utter embarrassment and he immediately put himself on hotseat, he had to **** can his hand picked OC in year 1 to save himself, thats crazy.
 
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Everyone is forgetting special teams in regards to our score last year.

We blocked a Punt and scored a TD. We recovered a muffed punt return and scored a TD.

that 52 comes down to 38-27without those.

Special Teams is a part of the game and if we can repeat last years performance on special teams then I expect similar results.

If we do not repeat last seasons performance on special teams I suspect the score will be closer.

Miami doesn’t score 52 last season without help from the special teams.

With that said the Louisville special teams was also a disaster against WKU.
 
I'm surprised L'ville isn't already favored by a TD.

Comparing both teams opening performances, it is going to be a long day for our Canes without improvements.

Possible for sure, but O still a work in progress and D isn't going to hold down Cardinals all game
 
CanesFan93 said:
Something I've noticed listening to podcasts/radio and reading articles is that while some people are concerned about the offense's progression from last year, they are even more concerned about Manny as a head coach. I tend to hear more concerns about his ability, or lack thereof, than how good the team may be but I guess those go hand-in-hand. A lot of"Satterfield is the superior coach, but Miami is more talented".
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Satterfield, so far, appears to be a vastly superior HC v Manuela.

Then again that bar is set low.

Satterfield vs de facto HC Lashlee? I'm not sure the gap is that large, if at all. Rhett needs just a touch more time given the albatrosses of Manuela and Baker.
 
gruntking said:
Most of all because Vegas sees an anemic defense , like they saw an anemic defense last year, they see a common denominator... need I spell it out.
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I’m tempted to putting my money on Ville... the defense I seen last Thursday I think the Cards are gonna drive up and down the field... I just hope we can keep up
 
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