- Dec 31, 2018
Did Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops have disastrous first years? By that standard...yes. Because they won 6 and 7 games respectively in year 1.Philosophically, ignoring any prior information makes no sense given so much roster/staff/etc may be very similar for up to several years.
It can depend on how far back he’s pulling historical prior information and obviously what he’s using. If he’s a Bayesian in his thinking then his priors can be useful but it’s likely the same parameters of data used for this season will not be close to what he’s historically pulling.
My opinion is I think there is plenty of historical information he can use but if I were doing anything, going back 10-15 years doesn’t make too much sense. If he uses up to four years where the roster we have now and staff we have now is more representative then it makes a little more sense. Given Diaz was head man first time last year it makes most sense to just use that, so not too much information at all.
-our hc is only in his second year but had disastrous results. Norvell is new but has a much longer and successful history despite this being his first year at FSU.
-our offensive staff dramatically changed from last year and hypothetically the playcalling. Our qb is a preseason maxwell candidate and likely won’t be doing drugs before the game.
-our defense is breaking in new lb leadersbut everyone else on defense is essentially returning and we added Roche.
- we have a kicker that can hypothetically make extra points and field goals now
so some information is there but it’s likely he used Hc and programs historical winning trends and not much else. Norvell clearly has a much better body of work but he is inheriting a nightmare.