This guy does analytics??

IDCANE

Recruit
Joined
Jan 30, 2017
Messages
274
Here’s what you all gloss over, we still have the same head coach. Yes, great recruiting. Fine, be our recruiting coordinator. Has he out schemed anyone? He’s great at washing his hands of Enos’s failures. They are his failures though. He let them play out. He didn’t know any better. He still doesn’t. He doesn’t scare anyone.
You're right- too bad he didn't make any off season changes.
 

simplycanes

Senior
Joined
Aug 3, 2012
Messages
6,132
Has nothing to do with undefeated.... He predicted 5-5 lol
You guys get bent out of shape that he predicted 5-5 and act like it's completely absurd. I'd like to think it is too, but step outside our UM centric world and look at what the rest of CFB sees, the data. Over the last 15 years, our record against P5 opponents is about 0.500, in fact I think it's exactly that. We have a losing record against teams with winning records. We've just been handed an exclusively P5 schedule, including a power house, and the weakest link is also a team we've lost to and had a lot of trouble with over the years in GT.
 

simplycanes

Senior
Joined
Aug 3, 2012
Messages
6,132
No, that's not the issue.

The issue is that he uses "our last two years" to justify predicting a .500 performance, even though the past 2 years have included a burned-out coach spiraling towards resignation and a first-time HC with an OC so bad he had to be fired after 1 year. Our recruiting has been solid and we are heading into Year 2 with some solid transfers-in.

COMPARED TO an F$U team with nearly identical stats and record...but we BEAT F$U in those past 2 years, and last year's F$U team was so bad that they had to fire a coach in mid-season and replace him with a guy who has already had to weather a scandal. Plus, where is F$U's infusion of talent from recruiting and/or the portal?

AND THIS IS THE F$U TEAM THAT HE PREDICTS TO BE 3 GAMES BETTER THAN MIAMI?

Are you fvcking kidding?

Look, I've heard of optimism. But what in god's name supports an 8-2 prediction for F$U? Jimbo's national championship?

Insanity.
I'll tell you the same thing I told the other guy, step outside our UM centric world and don't get pissed off when people disrespect us. We have a 500 record over the last decade-and-a-half against Power 5 teams, and a losing record against teams with winning records. Yes, FSU has been a gigantic joke, but there's a lot more respect nationally for Norvell than there is Diaz. So, who cares what this guy projected or didn't? The bottom line is, he's some guy who's just looking at info and saying my odds are that Miami still sucks. I certainly don't want to believe that myself, but I'm not going to get bent out of shape if people think it either.
 

JgDaCane

All-ACC
Joined
Jul 22, 2014
Messages
9,273
You can put King on ANY team in the ACC & they’d be better then 5-5. Any team. That’s how good he is. He just so happened to land on the second most talented team in the conference.
 

Caneinator

Russian Bot
Joined
Jan 24, 2018
Messages
1,642
I'd rather go by Phil Steele, who has a track record of success. He has us as the #1 Surprise Team in the Nation, and finishing second in the Coastal behind North Carolina. That's more believable than a 7th place finish.
As much as I believe we will do much better this year than last year...Phil said the same thing about us last year lol

I agree with him...but...I agreed with him last year too.
 

GojiraCane

Sophomore
Joined
Dec 31, 2018
Messages
1,254
As much as I believe we will do much better this year than last year...Phil said the same thing about us last year lol

I agree with him...but...I agreed with him last year too.
And he acknowledged that in this year's issue. Phil doesn't have a perfect record, but he's pretty good.

And with more experience, looking at this season versus last season far more comprehensive improvements appear to have been made. We knew last year that the offensive line was hugely suspect, and after a disastrous scrimmage in early August my hopes dimmed considerably (I called for a 6-6 season on another site that included an FIU loss, albeit as a worst case scenario). Last year the OL was the biggest challenge going into the season. Unlike last season, this year there's grounds for far more optimism in that our returning offensive linemen are theoretically stronger, we've added Williams, we have a blue-chip lineman coming in, we've gone to the spread, and we have a new OL coach. We've done just about everything thinkable in seven months to turn this position around, and if that is fixed....the team as a whole has a lot going for it. Thus the cause for improvement.
 

RemainMack

Junior
Joined
Oct 14, 2018
Messages
1,566
Philosophically, ignoring any prior information makes no sense given so much roster/staff/etc may be very similar for up to several years.

It can depend on how far back he’s pulling historical prior information and obviously what he’s using. If he’s a Bayesian in his thinking then his priors can be useful but it’s likely the same parameters of data used for this season will not be close to what he’s historically pulling.

My opinion is I think there is plenty of historical information he can use but if I were doing anything, going back 10-15 years doesn’t make too much sense. If he uses up to four years where the roster we have now and staff we have now is more representative then it makes a little more sense. Given Diaz was head man first time last year it makes most sense to just use that, so not too much information at all.

but:

-our hc is only in his second year but had disastrous results. Norvell is new but has a much longer and successful history despite this being his first year at FSU.

-our offensive staff dramatically changed from last year and hypothetically the playcalling. Our qb is a preseason maxwell candidate and likely won’t be doing drugs before the game.

-our defense is breaking in new lb leadersbut everyone else on defense is essentially returning and we added Roche.

- we have a kicker that can hypothetically make extra points and field goals now

so some information is there but it’s likely he used Hc and programs historical winning trends and not much else. Norvell clearly has a much better body of work but he is inheriting a nightmare.
 

Caneinator

Russian Bot
Joined
Jan 24, 2018
Messages
1,642
And he acknowledged that in this year's issue. Phil doesn't have a perfect record, but he's pretty good.

And with more experience, looking at this season versus last season far more comprehensive improvements appear to have been made. We knew last year that the offensive line was hugely suspect, and after a disastrous scrimmage in early August my hopes dimmed considerably (I called for a 6-6 season on another site that included an FIU loss, albeit as a worst case scenario). Last year the OL was the biggest challenge going into the season. Unlike last season, this year there's grounds for far more optimism in that our returning offensive linemen are theoretically stronger, we've added Williams, we have a blue-chip lineman coming in, we've gone to the spread, and we have a new OL coach. We've done just about everything thinkable in seven months to turn this position around, and if that is fixed....the team as a whole has a lot going for it. Thus the cause for improvement.
And I totally agree with you. I just like pointing out other people (phil in this case) shortcomings to make me feel better about myself
 

Miami[]_[]Smoke

Recruit
Joined
Apr 5, 2017
Messages
312
You can put King on ANY team in the ACC & they’d be better then 5-5. Any team. That’s how good he is. He just so happened to land on the second most talented team in the conference.
That seems especially homeristic considering he went 1-3 last year while completing <53% of his passes.
 

Miami[]_[]Smoke

Recruit
Joined
Apr 5, 2017
Messages
312
Philosophically, ignoring any prior information makes no sense given so much roster/staff/etc may be very similar for up to several years.

It can depend on how far back he’s pulling historical prior information and obviously what he’s using. If he’s a Bayesian in his thinking then his priors can be useful but it’s likely the same parameters of data used for this season will not be close to what he’s historically pulling.

My opinion is I think there is plenty of historical information he can use but if I were doing anything, going back 10-15 years doesn’t make too much sense. If he uses up to four years where the roster we have now and staff we have now is more representative then it makes a little more sense. Given Diaz was head man first time last year it makes most sense to just use that, so not too much information at all.

but:

-our hc is only in his second year but had disastrous results. Norvell is new but has a much longer and successful history despite this being his first year at FSU.

-our offensive staff dramatically changed from last year and hypothetically the playcalling. Our qb is a preseason maxwell candidate and likely won’t be doing drugs before the game.

-our defense is breaking in new lb leadersbut everyone else on defense is essentially returning and we added Roche.

- we have a kicker that can hypothetically make extra points and field goals now

so some information is there but it’s likely he used Hc and programs historical winning trends and not much else. Norvell clearly has a much better body of work but he is inheriting a nightmare.
I think our kickers could make hypothetical kicks last year too...the real ones are always the problem
 

atlCanesFan

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Apr 13, 2015
Messages
641
It's just an opinion, albeit not highly respected. He want's to go with 5-5 fine, it's not like he can predetermine the season.
FWIW, I'm going with 7-8 wins.
 

pacusmc

Freshman
Joined
Aug 27, 2016
Messages
6,520
It’s the age of the internet. Everyone can be a doctor, engineer, political scientist, virologist epidemiologist,
I never played football or coached it, but I’m on here putting my 2 cents worth like i know wtf I’m talking about.
 

JD08

Clever tagline goes here
Joined
Dec 19, 2014
Messages
10,797
It’s the age of the internet. Everyone can be a doctor, engineer, political scientist, virologist epidemiologist,
I never played football or coached it, but I’m on here putting my 2 cents worth like i know wtf I’m talking about.
WTF are you talking about? We were on the same team in high school, then, after college, we were both GA's.

Your too modest Mr. Saban.
 

sdaly12

Recruit
Joined
Oct 5, 2012
Messages
897
have no issue, with his tweet...... we have not done anything yet. please remember we lost 3 games out right as double digit favorites..... Butch schooled young CMD and CMD is still one of 10 worst HC's in Power 5 till he changes the narrative. will not drink the kool aid.... if we do not win 9+ goodbye top 5 class
 
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