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There's a Path

zeeblet01 said:
This is not Saban's alabama.
They lost by double digits to FSU.
Narrowly escaped Auburn.

They are not a guarantee. We may jump them this week. They haven't looked great.

No one in the SEC has looked great which is why having 5 of them is ******* baffling. They should have 3 at most but I can see the argument for 4. After that it's BS. There are holes in all of their resumes... TA&M beat no good SEC team... ******* SC blew it, Ole Miss might not only lose the coaches but also players, OU is garbage and other than them being Alabama's version of Louisville and winning a weird game, they got blown out by Texas, got a phantom call (and illegal play that wasn't called resulting in a TD) to beat Auburn and snuck by an LSU team with no head coach (that almost lost to western kentucky the week before) . Bama lost to FSU and looked bad lately.

They are all fluffed up by wins against ranked teams like South Carolina, Tennessee, Mizzou, and Vandy. All of which haven't beaten anyone of significance.

Any argument for an SEC team to be ranked over Miami either negates another SEC team or ND and vice versa.

They need to either livestream the discussions for transparency or have former coaches like Saban, Fisher, etc. with real football "eyes" doing the rankings. ADs are sports management people, not football people.

Rant over...:6fps6:
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I agree with absolutely every word of this other than “they aren’t guaranteed to get in.”

The committee doesn’t care about the eye test with SEC teams, all they care about is protecting specific brands.

Oklahoma making the playoff this year is a total travesty.

Would love to be wrong, but unless they do the right thing and swap us with Notre Dame, it’s over. And I have almost zero faith they do it.
 
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We're out. I'll continue to say this until I'm proven wrong, but my money is on I won't be. I've said it for well over a month, we need help. We didn't get it.

HOWEVER, the only thing that's even moderately interesting to me is, Notre Dame's odds continue to drop. And they're beating the **** out of teams.

A couple weeks ago, I posted they were -4000 to make the playoff. A certainty.
Then I saw it was down to -2000
Then last week it was -1000
Today, it's -400

Even though they keep winning games by 60, or 40, or 20, their odds continue to drop.

I do think *most* of this is due to the fact that, weeks ago, the books assumed that they'd keep winning because the teams they had left to play were pure *** (and this happened), but other teams around them would lose because they had harder games, so ND's resume would continue to climb. But that didn't happen. As we all know, we needed a couple upsets, so of ******* course all the chalk has won and won and won for the past 3 weeks.

But -400 is certainly not a lock. It's a big favorite, of course. But it's not a certainty. So, we're out, we know this. But this is at least 0.1% something to keep in mind. Alabama, for example, doesn't even have odds at DK. They are -3000 to make the playoff at Fanduel. And they still have a game to play. ND is only -400 at DK. They are -420 at FanDuel. So the books think Alabama has WAY MORE of a chance to make the playoff than ND does, even though Alabama has a game to play. Intradasting.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We're out. I'll continue to say this until I'm proven wrong, but my money is on I won't be. I've said it for well over a month, we need help. We didn't get it.

HOWEVER, the only thing that's even moderately interesting to me is, Notre Dame's odds continue to drop. And they're beating the **** out of teams.

A couple weeks ago, I posted they were -4000 to make the playoff. A certainty.
Then I saw it was down to -2000
Then last week it was -1000
Today, it's -400

Even though they keep winning games by 60, or 40, or 20, their odds continue to drop.

I do think *most* of this is due to the fact that, weeks ago, the books assumed that they'd keep winning because the teams they had left to play were pure *** (and this happened), but other teams around them would lose because they had harder games, so ND's resume would continue to climb. But that didn't happen. As we all know, we needed a couple upsets, so of ******* course all the chalk has won and won and won for the past 3 weeks.

But -400 is certainly not a lock. It's a big favorite, of course. But it's not a certainty. So, we're out, we know this. But this is at least 0.1% something to keep in mind. Alabama, for example, doesn't even have odds at DK. They are -3000 to make the playoff at Fanduel. And they still have a game to play. ND is only -400 at DK. They are -420 at FanDuel. So the books think Alabama has WAY MORE of a chance to make the playoff than ND does, even though Alabama has a game to play. Intradasting.
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I also, unfortunately, think we're out. But there's a slim chance. Maybe 15 percent.

Our Pitt beatdown erased any argument that ND has over us. The Committee has shown they're okay ranking two-loss teams ahead of one-loss teams (see ND over BYU right now). There's a small, unlikely chance we jump ND and BYU. But the Committee has lost the plot. They've convinced themselves their judgment matters more than the actual games on the field. It's disgusting.

As for the OP, the SEC runner-up isn’t getting left out. Maybe if Alabama suffers three or more critical injuries, including to Simpson, and gets blown out, but short of that, we’re not jumping them after they lose to the No. 3 team in the country and the SEC champ.

Our only hope is jumping ND and BYU, and then praying Texas Tech takes care of business.
 
F-MarioCristobal said:
See SMU last year and report back.

I still think if that game didn’t come back close after it looked like a blowout, SMU was gone and Alabama was in.

They haven’t made the comment this year that conference championship game participants wont be “punished” and miss the playoff but they did last year.
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No they didn't. They 100% said you could be punished last year. But thats SMU. Less than 1% chance that holds true for bama and the sec runner up
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tdjones34 said:
so Bama if still #10 will be the 1st to not drop a spot?
so we will punish you but only if not on bubble?

lets see it
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The teams that lost just got reseeded. Thats different than punishing them all the way out. Again smu, who they didnt want in the first place, absolutely could be out, bama and thr sec runner up losing to #3 isnt being punished to 13.
 
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goblin deez nuts said:
The teams that lost just got reseeded. Thats different than punishing them all the way out. Again smu, who they didnt want in the first place, absolutely could be out, bama and thr sec runner up losing to #3 isnt being punished to 13.
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They don't need to be 13th
If they are still 10th tomorrow they only need to fall to #11 if they lose to be out
Every CC game loser had fallen

Espn has brainwashed this country about sec
 
Even Chatgpt has us in right now on pure merit, no auto CC bids, and would move us to #10 with BYU and Bama losses:

My 12-team CFP (pure merit analysis — no committee deference)​

  1. Ohio State — undefeated, best résumé in the country; dominant wins vs. top competition and clear Big Ten title contender. Big Ten Conference
  2. Indiana — also undefeated with quality wins and the kind of body-of-work you reward under merit-based logic. (If they finish the same way they’ve earned a top spot.) Big Ten Conference+1
  3. Texas A&M — overall résumé and wins remain excellent; one loss lowers them slightly but their season quality keeps them a top-tier selection. NCAA.com
  4. Georgia — one of the nation’s best one-loss teams, strong SOS and high-value wins; merits a CFP slot. AP News+1
  5. Texas Tech — top-five performance late in season, strong signature wins and conference résumé make them a deserving pick. AP News+1
  6. Oregon — very strong résumé, quality wins, one loss — but their overall season strength and SOS justify inclusion. Wikipedia+1
  7. Ole Miss — 10–1 with quality results and wins vs. good opponents; still deserving if evaluating pure performance. NCAA.com
  8. BYU — 10–1 with strong resume metrics (good record vs. competitive schedule); merits an at-large look. NCAA.com
  9. Alabama — one of the more battle-tested teams on strength-of-schedule lists and a traditionally high performer; earns a spot on merit despite two losses because of SOS and quality wins. TeamRankings+1
  10. Notre Dame — independent schedule but several quality wins and a strong SOS; their résumé belongs in the conversation on merit. TeamRankings+1
  11. Oklahoma — solid résumé with quality wins, head-to-head / common opponent results that support inclusion as an at-large. NCAA.com
  12. Miami (FL) — resumes with 9–2 and quality wins late in the year (and a strong conference performance); as a final at-large pick they have the case on merit. AP News+1
 
F-MarioCristobal said:
Yep they changed their stance that one time for the ACCCG. Prior to that, they were very consistent that teams wouldn't be punished.
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They are always moving the goal posts and no one calls them out for the BS. Last year they put emphasis on great wins because it shows what teams are capable of, like when Bama was ahead of Miami because of their "great wins" despite two losses to 6-6 teams.

Now quality losses are important and eye test matters more than actual results. It's whatever they want it to be and they only do interviews with ESPN so they can't get their words pinned against them
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
We're out. I'll continue to say this until I'm proven wrong, but my money is on I won't be. I've said it for well over a month, we need help. We didn't get it.

HOWEVER, the only thing that's even moderately interesting to me is, Notre Dame's odds continue to drop. And they're beating the **** out of teams.

A couple weeks ago, I posted they were -4000 to make the playoff. A certainty.
Then I saw it was down to -2000
Then last week it was -1000
Today, it's -400

Even though they keep winning games by 60, or 40, or 20, their odds continue to drop.

I do think *most* of this is due to the fact that, weeks ago, the books assumed that they'd keep winning because the teams they had left to play were pure *** (and this happened), but other teams around them would lose because they had harder games, so ND's resume would continue to climb. But that didn't happen. As we all know, we needed a couple upsets, so of ******* course all the chalk has won and won and won for the past 3 weeks.

But -400 is certainly not a lock. It's a big favorite, of course. But it's not a certainty. So, we're out, we know this. But this is at least 0.1% something to keep in mind. Alabama, for example, doesn't even have odds at DK. They are -3000 to make the playoff at Fanduel. And they still have a game to play. ND is only -400 at DK. They are -420 at FanDuel. So the books think Alabama has WAY MORE of a chance to make the playoff than ND does, even though Alabama has a game to play. Intradasting.
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The last two weeks were brutal for our odds. Virtually everything worked against us. Had OU beaten Bama and/or LSU beaten OU, that would have been our biggest chance to get in.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We're out. I'll continue to say this until I'm proven wrong, but my money is on I won't be. I've said it for well over a month, we need help. We didn't get it.

HOWEVER, the only thing that's even moderately interesting to me is, Notre Dame's odds continue to drop. And they're beating the **** out of teams.

A couple weeks ago, I posted they were -4000 to make the playoff. A certainty.
Then I saw it was down to -2000
Then last week it was -1000
Today, it's -400

Even though they keep winning games by 60, or 40, or 20, their odds continue to drop.

I do think *most* of this is due to the fact that, weeks ago, the books assumed that they'd keep winning because the teams they had left to play were pure *** (and this happened), but other teams around them would lose because they had harder games, so ND's resume would continue to climb. But that didn't happen. As we all know, we needed a couple upsets, so of ******* course all the chalk has won and won and won for the past 3 weeks.

But -400 is certainly not a lock. It's a big favorite, of course. But it's not a certainty. So, we're out, we know this. But this is at least 0.1% something to keep in mind. Alabama, for example, doesn't even have odds at DK. They are -3000 to make the playoff at Fanduel. And they still have a game to play. ND is only -400 at DK. They are -420 at FanDuel. So the books think Alabama has WAY MORE of a chance to make the playoff than ND does, even though Alabama has a game to play. Intradasting.
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I'm personally still in the denial/bargaining phase of trusting a bunch of corrupt bureaucrats to do the right thing, succumb to the public pressure, and not set a very dangerous precedent of Head to Head not being the deciding factor when all of the analytics are a virtual dead heat. I expect they'll f*ck with the rankings and make it so Miami and ND are not in comparative pools and focus that our losses are worse.

Right now we're at +600 so Vegas says that implies a 14.21 percent chance we swap with ND AND TT beats BYU. A punchers chance.

However there is one bit of hope I've pointed to in this thread. FSU was -800 to make the playoffs the night before selection Sunday after they won the ACC. Then saw their odds plummet over night and through selection day. Would we have already seen that drastic movement? IDK but I guess there is that possibility out there we see a massive swing as we get closer. That's what I'll be watching.



Having said all that I'll probably see you all in the Depression stage tomorrow night.
 
goblin deez nuts said:
The teams that lost just got reseeded. Thats different than punishing them all the way out. Again smu, who they didnt want in the first place, absolutely could be out, bama and thr sec runner up losing to #3 isnt being punished to 13.
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Again, this brain-dead moronic concept of "punishing them all the way out" only means anything IN A 12-TEAM WORLD. Which has only existed for 1 year before now.

Stop making up these infallible truisms WHEN THERE IS ONLY ONE YEAR OF COMPARABLES. It's just pathetic.
 
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