MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

[TheOriginalCane]

Miami and ND have never been back to back in the rankings. The committee has gone 14/14 this cycle with putting the team with the H2H win above the team with the H2H loss when the teams are back to back.

We want to get as close to ND as possible. The best way to do that is to have them stay put at 10, and have BYU drop. No need to get any murkier than that. Go Bama.

First of all, "back-to-back" was the invented excuse-of-the-week THIS WEEK. It hasn't been cited by the CFPC before now. And more importantly, when teams ARE "back-to-back" in the 14 instances that you cite, it is the result of a movement up or down based on, you know, actually playing games. A "forced-back-to-back" that arises solely because one or more "in-between teams" drop out, while the "suddenly-back-to-back" teams have remained idle is an event that can only happen during championship week.

If you honestly believe that idle teams are going to be moving up and down the rankings due to what happens wth teams playing in the championship games, I have a bridge in the Everglades to sell to you.

And MOST importantly, the CFPC Committee (and the hopeless dreamers such as yourself) are inventing a whole "back-to-back" fantasy world of rules and policies that simply doesn't exist. MEANWHILE, the CFPC has a written set of guidelines that allow them to COMPARE THE FOUR TEAMS IN A POD, and they have declined to give Miami the head-to-head advantage over Notre Dame EVEN WHEN THEY COULD HAVE DONE SO CONSISTENTLY WITH THEIR WRITTEN POLICIES.

Not happening. I'd love to be wrong about that. Unlike certain people, I won't put anything at 100% happening or 100% not-happening. I'm just noting that we have been ranked below Notre Dame for ALL FIVE WEEKS of the CFP, during the FIVE WEEKS we had an identical number of losses.

Again, as I said to @Calinative , I don't hear any of the hopeless dreamers acknowledging that the CFPC has penalized the loser of the SEC-CG for 10 consecutive years, five of which involved two or more ranking spots.

Why will nobody acknowledge that stone-cold fact? Why do certain people continue to put all the focus on the dream that the CFPC will wake up and finally & belatedly acknowledge Miami's head-to-head victory over Notre Dame?

I'm not denying that it's an uphill challenge for Alabama to lose by a large enough margin to move two spots. But there ABSOLUTELY IS a history of the CFPC penalizing the loser of conference championship games, something that certain people have (falsely) been claiming the CFPC would never do.

 

[hurricaneman]

josh pate sat around for minutes defending bama as if theyre some ridiculous stud team. even advocated for a 2 loss team who struggled the entire year esp on offense to deserve a bye if they win the SEC. his reason? bc the SEC and b10 are better (with no real evidence provided other than his words)

He's huge on Vandy and Bama, two flawed teams.

He thinks Vandy should jump teams ahead of them. His whole thing is, "if the logo was different they'd be in the playoffs", which I think is bulls***. They don't currently hold a victory over a ranked team and they lost to the two best teams they played, one by 16.

As for Bama, I'm all for the debate whether they should be in. I don't think they should. But what drives me insane are people like Pate who don't even want to have the discussion that because Bama has played like s*** the last 5 games and are a bubble team that we can't discuss it, they should just be in. Especially with the context of last year when they lost to two 6-6 teams.

Like, people want to s*** on Miami for losing to two 8-4 teams and calling them "bad" losses but Alabama has lost to .500 and below teams in consecutive seasons. They are a flawed team. Who else in that top 12 this year has lost 3 games over the past two years to .500 and below teams AND struggled this year against other .500 or below teams? The last 5 games they played two below .500 teams and beat them each by one score. Like....that's a f***ing pattern. A big, big, long pattern.

I think Bama is the biggest fraud of the bunch.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Seriously, are people actually arguing that Miami does nothing, Notre Dame does nothing, and now SUDDENLY the CFPC will give Miami the head-to-head edge SIMPLY BECAUSE THIRD-PARTY BYU LOSES AN UNRELATED GAME?

Strange.

 

[ssvir]

Miami and ND have never been back to back in the rankings. The committee has gone 14/14 this cycle with putting the team with the H2H win above the team with the H2H loss when the teams are back to back.

We want to get as close to ND as possible. The best way to do that is to have them stay put at 10, and have BYU drop. No need to get any murkier than that. Go Bama.

 

[ssvir]

Seriously, are people actually arguing that Miami does nothing, Notre Dame does nothing, and now SUDDENLY the CFPC will give Miami the head-to-head edge SIMPLY BECAUSE THIRD-PARTY BYU LOSES AN UNRELATED GAME?

Strange.

We aren't getting in either way by the looks of things but there is 0.0% chance Bama is eliminated from the playoffs by losing the SEC title game unless the score is 70-7.

 

[flips]

Bama is -1600 to make the playoff and been trading 89-93% yes since the volatility from the CFP rankings. ND is -340 to make the playoff and has been trading 75-78%. We have the same odds to make the playoff as BYU. It's extremely unlikely (though possible through a Simpson injury, Bama getting blown out, or both) that we would jump Bama relative to the chance we would jump ND.

Yes, the CFP has moved the loser of the SECCG down historically, but for us to get in over Bama it would require the CFP to do something they haven't done before - push out a P4 CG loser who was in the playoff prior to the CG. And they would be pushing out the SEC-CG loser. I have my doubts. (well this premise was wrong, h/t @TheOriginalCane for fataliating me)

As @OrangeBowlMagic has pointed out ranking Miami ahead of ND if we are back-to-back in the rankings on account of the h2h is precedented. If BYU loses and Bama wins, they would have to break that precedent, or as @MumbleRap suspects, keep BYU at 11. Perhaps I'm being to credulous but I think faced with such a scenario (Bama win, BYU loss) they will do the right thing and give us the last at large.

 

[Calinative]

And a Bama win AND a Bama blowout loss are BOTH more likely to happen than for the CFPC to suddenly and belatedly change its mind about applying the head-to-head outcome of the Week 1 Miami-Notre Dame game.

Head-to-head is not happening. The CFPC will invent any reason NOT to do it. They don't care. It doesn't matter. We have been in the SAME POD as Notre Dame for two weeks, and they simply will not use the head-to-head.

But, sure, keep trying to pull open a push-door. Again, you have NO RESPONSE to the factual proof that the CFPC has "penalized" the loser of the SEC-CG every single year for 10 consecutive years, with 5 of those 10 instances involving 2 or more ranking spots.

But you're going to stay focused on how Alabama can't lose, and certainly can't be blown out. That remains to be seen.

The CFP has penalized the SEC-CG loser EVERY YEAR for 10 consecutive years, ranging from 1 spot to 5 spots. We only need TWO spots.

Tell me again how "unlikely" it is...because that will be a lie.

You simply 100% wrong.

 

[Calinative]

Bama is -1600 to make the playoff and been trading 89-93% yes since the volatility from the CFP rankings. ND is -340 to make the playoff and has been trading 75-78%. We have the same odds to make the playoff as BYU. It's extremely unlikely (though possible through a Simpson injury, Bama getting blown out, or both) that we would jump Bama relative to the chance we would jump ND.

Yes, the CFP has moved the loser of the SECCG down historically, but for us to get in over Bama it would require the CFP to do something they haven't done before - push out a P4 CG loser who was in the playoff prior to the CG. And they would be pushing out the SEC-CG loser. I have my doubts.

As @OrangeBowlMagic has pointed out ranking Miami ahead of ND if we are back-to-back in the rankings on account of the h2h is precedented. If BYU loses and Bama wins, they would have to break that precedent, or as @MumbleRap suspects, keep BYU at 11. Perhaps I'm being to credulous but I think faced with such a scenario (Bama win, BYU loss) they will do the right thing and give us the last at large.

A Conference Championship game loser who finished #1 in the SEC regular season lol

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Seriously, are people actually arguing that Miami does nothing, Notre Dame does nothing, and now SUDDENLY the CFPC will give Miami the head-to-head edge SIMPLY BECAUSE THIRD-PARTY BYU LOSES AN UNRELATED GAME?

Strange.

It's certainly more feasible than the committee dropping Alabama out of the playoff for losing a game they earned their way into, with that game being the Southeastern Conference Championship game.

None of this is probable, that's why we're +650 to make the playoff. But it's far likelier to have BYU out of the way, which would naturally move Miami up to 11, and then they can have the DIRECT debate about Miami vs ND with zero other discussion points than it is to have Alabama get the **** kicked out of them so badly that the committee removes the regular season ACC leader out of the playoff entirely to move in a team they've given virtually zero respect to the entire cycle.

If you want to root for Bama to lose 40-6, go right ahead. Good luck with that. I'll be over here hoping they win a close game, which is a **** of a lot more probable than them getting blown out of the building, and pray sanity prevails if Miami and ND are discussed as direct comparisons to one another, as they will be if ND stays at 10 and Miami moves up from 12.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

We aren't getting either way by the looks of things but there is 0.0% chance Bama is eliminated from the playoffs by losing the SEC title game unless the score is 70-7.

Again, in HALF of the last 10 seasons, the SEC-CG loser has dropped by 2 or more spots.

I present facts. You have presented a fake percentage, just as @Calinative did.

 

[hoops156]

He's huge on Vandy and Bama, two flawed teams.

He thinks Vandy should jump teams ahead of them. His whole thing is, "if the logo was different they'd be in the playoffs", which I think is bulls***. They don't currently hold a victory over a ranked team and they lost to the two best teams they played, one by 16.

As for Bama, I'm all for the debate whether they should be in. I don't think they should. But what drives me insane are people like Pate who don't even want to have the discussion that because Bama has played like s*** the last 5 games and are a bubble team that we can't discuss it, they should just be in. Especially with the context of last year when they lost to two 6-6 teams.

Like, people want to s*** on Miami for losing to two 8-4 teams and calling them "bad" losses but Alabama has lost to .500 and below teams in consecutive seasons. They are a flawed team. Who else in that top 12 this year has lost 3 games over the past two years to .500 and below teams AND struggled this year against other .500 or below teams? The last 5 games they played two below .500 teams and beat them each by one score. Like....that's a f***ing pattern. A big, big, long pattern.

I think Bama is the biggest fraud of the bunch.

they still think bama is coached by saban

 

[Yoyo423]

A Conference Championship game loser who finished #1 in the SEC regular season lol

Exactly.

I heard it said a few times today.

Regular season SEC champs- Alabama.

Also, SEC regular season champs and losers to ACC bottom dweller, FSU -Alabama

 

[ssvir]

You simply 100% wrong.

This ought to be good for at least a half dozen 1/4 page posts in response.

 

[hoops156]

It's certainly more feasible than the committee dropping Alabama out of the playoff for losing a game they earned their way into, with that game being the Southeastern Conference Championship game.

None of this is probable, that's why we're +650 to make the playoff. But it's far likelier to have BYU out of the way, which would naturally move Miami up to 11, and then they can have the DIRECT debate about Miami vs ND with zero other discussion points than it is to have Alabama get the **** kicked out of them so badly that the committee removes the regular season ACC leader out of the playoff entirely to move in a team they've given virtually zero respect to the entire cycle.

If you want to root for Bama to lose 40-6, go right ahead. Good luck with that. I'll be over here hoping they win a close game, which is a **** of a lot more probable than them getting blown out of the building, and pray sanity prevails if Miami and ND are discussed as direct comparisons to one another, as they will be if ND stays at 10 and Miami moves up from 12.

they earned their way the same way Duke did. backdoored in even though OM had less losses, better overall record, higher ranked, and same SEC record.

 

[ssvir]

Again, in HALF of the last 10 seasons, the SEC-CG loser has dropped by 2 or more spots.

I present facts. You have presented a fake percentage, just as @Calinative did.

and out of those HALF how many were eliminated from the playoffs? Never happening unless Bama loses 70-7 or Simpson gets Joe Theisman'ed

 

[Calinative]

Again, in HALF of the last 10 seasons, the SEC-CG loser has dropped by 2 or more spots.

I present facts. You have presented a fake percentage, just as @Calinative did.

Believe and root for what you want dude. Lmao

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Bama is -1600 to make the playoff and been trading 89-93% yes since the volatility from the CFP rankings. ND is -340 to make the playoff and has been trading 75-78%. We have the same odds to make the playoff as BYU. It's extremely unlikely (though possible through a Simpson injury, Bama getting blown out, or both) that we would jump Bama relative to the chance we would jump ND.

Yes, the CFP has moved the loser of the SECCG down historically, but for us to get in over Bama it would require the CFP to do something they haven't done before - push out a P4 CG loser who was in the playoff prior to the CG. And they would be pushing out the SEC-CG loser. I have my doubts.

As @OrangeBowlMagic has pointed out ranking Miami ahead of ND if we are back-to-back in the rankings on account of the h2h is precedented. If BYU loses and Bama wins, they would have to break that precedent, or as @MumbleRap suspects, keep BYU at 11. Perhaps I'm being to credulous but I think faced with such a scenario (Bama win, BYU loss) they will do the right thing and give us the last at large.

There is a massive, massive, massive difference between moving a conference championship game loser down and moving a conference championship loser from IN the playoff before the game to OUT of the playoff afterwards.

Also, what's more likely? Bama winning, or losing by 30, or 40, or whatever it'd take to have the committee say "Holy Christ, we can't put the SEC regular season champion in the playoff, did you see that?!" What's that number? 50-10? 45-3? It's nonsense.

This is the SEC invitational. The committee isn't dropping the a team in the **** SEC Championship from in to out. It's total nonsense. You think the national noise is loud for Miami right now....wait till the committee tells Ala-******'-Bama (shoutout Vincent Gambini), "You're in the playoffs, but since you earned your way into the SECCG and OU, A&M, and Ole Miss sat on their asses, they're in and you're out". Best of luck.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

they earned their way the same way Duke did. backdoored in even though OM had less losses, better overall record, higher ranked, and same SEC record.

It doesn't matter, but this is all moot anyway. UGA isn't beating Alabama by 40 points.

 

[Sabetta]

If the doomsday scenario happens does the committee have to put in a second G5 champ?
Cant they just manipulate the rankings if that's the case?

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Yes, the CFP has moved the loser of the SECCG down historically, but for us to get in over Bama it would require the CFP to do something they haven't done before - push out a P4 CG loser who was in the playoff prior to the CG. And they would be pushing out the SEC-CG loser. I have my doubts.

You gave yourself away with this bull**** and FALSE paragraph.

From 2014 to 2023, the size of the CFP field was FOUR TEAMS. In 2024, it expanded to 12 teams.

Here are the years in which the loser of the SEC-CG actually FELL OUT of the playoff field (and I haven't even bothered to assemble the history on the Big 10, the ACC, the Pac 12, or the Big 12):

2017: SEC-CG loser Auburn 2-down-to-7
2018: SEC-CG loser Georgia 4-down-to-5
2019: SEC-CG loser Georgia 4-down-to-5
2023: SEC-CG loser Georgia 1-down-to-6

So now, would you like to reconsider your statement that the CFP has NEVER BEFORE pushed out a P4 CG loser who was in the playoff prior to the CG? Because facts are facts. For the SEC ALONE, it has happened 4 times in the past 10 years. I haven't even bothered to check the OTHER FOUR Power 5 conferences (up through the untimely death of the Pac 12).

FOUR TIMES. Four times, the loser of the SEC Championship Game has fallen out of the Top 4 just after losing the SEC-CG.

Any questions?