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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

If you have access to FanDuel, I think it's smart to bet a couple bucks on Bama to NOT make the playoff. Simply because of the odds.

Alabama to NOT make the playoffs is +1120 right now. I think that's a smart bet to put $100 on, and here's why:

You're basically just playing a parlay of UGA and BYU. If UGA beats Alabama, and BYU beats Texas Tech, Alabama is out of the playoffs. It's just math, there isn't enough room for them, plus they'd have 3 losses. So I understand the whole "we won't ding you for losing a conference championship game", but they won't have a choice. BYU is in as the Big 12 champ, and Texas Tech obviously isn't falling all the way out.

A parlay of BYU moneyline and UGA moneyline pays about +750. But just betting on Bama to miss the playoffs pays +1120, as I said above.

Is this likely? No, BYU is a significant dog to Texas Tech. But it's a "loophole" that gives you much better odds than just betting on the games.

$100 to win $1120 at FanDuel, Bama to NOT make the playoffs. If you like risking a little cash.
 
Yoyo423 said:
The subjectivity of the committee is completely biased.

The narrative of "Miami has 2 bad, unranked losses" has stuck since they first happened. But both SMU and Lou could both be ranked, if the committee wanted to. It's like a self fulfilling narrative.

They're both going to be top 30 teams by pretty much every metric but they're "unranked". If they were top 25 teams they'd be ranked.m and we'd have 2 ranked losses.
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We could all agree that Miami has the worst losses of the two teams. But we can all agree that Miami has a better win.

Miami has proven that when given the opportunity to play an elite team they can win while Notre Dame has not proven they can beat an elite team. They had two chances and lost

How can a team with the head to head while also being the only team that beat an elite opponent is considered the worst team. SMU is a playoff team last year in Louisville is a good team as well.
 
Crimpy said:
As per usual, you are a wind-bag who has no idea what he's talking about.

Your wording shell game was cute, but nobody ever said anyone was leaving next year, or even the year after. Everyone knows that 2030-31 is the target season because that is when the SEC and Big 10 will be renegotiating their media rights deals, with the CFB Playoff negotiating it's rights shortly thereafter. The exit fee will also be down to only $75 million at that time.

Pay attention, here's the most important part: any team leaving the ACC retains their media rights under the settlement, as long as they pay the exit fee. There's even a nifty little "limited exit" option, where schools can leave for a single sport while remaining in the ACC for all other sports. Under that option, the exit fee immediately drops to $75 million. You don't even have to wait until 2030.

And no, the exit cost is not more than before the lawsuit. It's the same as it was before, $165 million, ...dropping around $18 million per year until bottoming out at $75 million. There is no additional GOR fee, just a single exit fee.
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You are such a bull****ter.

Here is YOUR POST which I responded to. A post which uses the words "right about now", not "someday in the future".

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There's no "wording shell game". That's what you did. For whatever reason, you thought that the LAWSUIT established some different set of rules for F$U. A "lowered exit fee", to quote your own post.

And you are WRONG about the ACC exit fee BEFORE the filing of F$U's lawsuit. The "Severe ACC Withdrawal Penalty" in 2023 was $130 million, as evidenced by F$U's statement in its legal filing:

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The "realignment" thread is full of posts that I made documenting every step of this "exit fee" process. In short, it involved:

A. Pre-litigation exit fee of $130 M, plus what I believed (correctly) to be a speculative and unenforceable set of GOR damages that exceeded $400 million.

B. Post-litigation REMOVAL of the GOR.

C. Post-litigation INCREASE in the ACC exit fee from $130 M to $165 M.

D. EVENTUAL reduction of the exit fee.

I know that you're not going to admit this, but your glib and inaccurate posting involved Miami IMMEDIATELY availing itself of a non-existent preferential ACC exit fee accorded to F$U. All I said was that your post was not true, and was based on a misreading of headlines surrounding the legal settlement, rather than a full understanding of the amended ACC Constitution and By-Laws.

But, sure, keep trying to argue with me. Pay no attention to my dozens of posts in the Realignment thread that involve exit fees, GOR, and litigation. I'm just a "wind-bag who has no idea what he's talking about", right?

Bull****. I've been researching and commenting on these issues for years.

I'm sorry that you were wrong. I'm sorry that you posted what you posted. I'm sorry I had to correct your misstatements publicly.

But none of those things are my fault.
 
AUcane said:
There are people out there who kind of dismiss the h2h claiming ND almost won that game and given it was a road game, the h2h win isn’t as valued as we think it is. I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the committee has that mentality. I don’t get the sense the commute values that h2h win as much as they should. We whipped that team that night.

Frustrating that the score didn’t reflect that
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Guess that means our 2 losses don’t count either, right?
 
JennStrawley’sBabyDaddy said:
Guess that means our 2 losses don’t count either, right?
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"2 losses" (one to F$U) don't seem to count for Alabama.

"2 losses" (one to MIAMI) don't seem to count for Notre Dame.

****, even Texas is arguing that THREE LOSSES (one to Florida) shouldn't keep them out.
 
When do Sumrall and Morris leave for UF and OkSt? Does the committee lower the rankings of old Miss, Tulane, and North Texas due to coaching changes? If that happens and JMU loses, that is one extra spot as a G5 wouldn’t be ranked. Add in Duke winning, you have two spots. Lol
 
JD08 said:
Did you see who he responded to?
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Yes I saw his response to Rads post (in which Rad copied a graphic from another tweet he was tagged in) lol. Rad should have been booked on every radio and sports show he could trying to campaign and make noise about this. His little tweet and then the article he put out this morning miss the mark IMO.
 
CBS Sports has

Oklahoma: yeah, the offense has struggled, but they've grinded out wins

Notre Dame: hottest team in the nation and the committee isnt having any Miami talk

The emphatic of that is incredibly silly
 
90scane said:
When do Sumrall and Morris leave for UF and OkSt? Does the committee lower the rankings of old Miss, Tulane, and North Texas due to coaching changes? If that happens and JMU loses, that is one extra spot as a G5 wouldn’t be ranked. Add in Duke winning, you have two spots. Lol
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Someone like @TheOriginalCane could give better insight on the situation, but I don’t think it matters where they’re ranked. The 5 highest ranked conference champs get in, regardless of whether they’re in the top 25 or not. It’s a **** show. Meanwhile 3 playoff hopefuls lost their coach, with 1 of those losing at least 1/2 their staff. Then there’s Miami, with almost identical resumes as ND, beat ND, and it’s somehow sacrilege to compare the 2.
 
I'm surprised the Pokes and UF are not insisting their new HCs get to work. Pretty weird stuff.
 
JennStrawley’sBabyDaddy said:
Someone like @TheOriginalCane could give better insight on the situation, but I don’t think it matters where they’re ranked. The 5 highest ranked conference champs get in, regardless of whether they’re in the top 25 or not. It’s a **** show. Meanwhile 3 playoff hopefuls lost their coach, with 1 of those losing at least 1/2 their staff. Then there’s Miami, with almost identical resumes as ND, beat ND, and it’s somehow sacrilege to compare the 2.
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"The College Football Playoff (CFP) is the event that crowns the national champion in college football. The CFP selection committee ranks the top 25 teams at the end of the regular season. The five highest ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will be seeded into a 12-team bracket based on the final ranking, with the four highest-ranked teams receiving a first-round bye. The teams ranked Nos. 5-12 will play in the CFP First Round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds. "

See the bottom of the page: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/11/4/cfp-rankings.aspx
 
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