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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

ALLoverCANE said:
Put your tinfoil hat back on, buddy. Everyone, including me, the CFP committee, the voters, the people behind FPI/SP+/Sagarin, and Vegas are all out to get your precious Canes. That's the only explanation for why ND would be higher!
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There are very clear explanations why ND is higher at this moment in time. That will not be the case if we’re both 10-2 at the end of the year. You’re ignoring the CFPs own criteria because it undermines your entire argument.

You even just argued in another post that us having more ranked wins doesn’t matter, because those teams are no longer ranked. By that same principle NDs ranked win against Pitt no longer matters, leaving us each with a ranked win, and us having the better one. Again, your whole argument boils down to ignoring CFP criteria, and valuing good losses over actual wins.
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
SP+, FPI, SOR, # of ranked wins, # of unranked losses

>

Your cherry-picked "data points"
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Funny that a head-to-head matchup is a “cherry picked” stat. Would think that’s a pretty **** relevant stat. But I guess you think that doesn’t matter. Common opponents? Doesn’t matter also, according to you.

And acting like we’re way behind ND in the metrics you cited is extremely disingenuous.

FPI? They are 5. We are 11.

SP+? They are 5. We are 10.

SOR? They are 12. We are 16

So, clearly, there is not much daylight separating us. You’re acting like there is some insane gap here when it simply doesn’t exist.

If only, in times like these, we had more “data” to figure out who truly belongs….

Maybe, a head-to-head?? Nah, that would be crazy….
 
FL Cane said:
There are very clear explanations why ND is higher at this moment in time. That will not be the case if we’re both 10-2 at the end of the year. You’re ignoring the CFPs own criteria because it undermines your entire argument.

You even just argued in another post that us having more ranked wins doesn’t matter, because those teams are no longer ranked. By that same principle NDs ranked win against Pitt no longer matters, leaving us each with a ranked win, and us having the better one. Again, your whole argument boils down to ignoring CFP criteria, and valuing good losses over actual wins.
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I do agree that at the end of the year, things could look different. At the moment, they are clearly ahead of us - based on the committee's own criteria.

Each team has 1 ranked win. They're comparable (9 vs 15, both at home.) At no point have I given credit to ND for beating Pitt. BTW, Navy could very well be ranked this week, so they may be at 2.

Losses also matter, and theirs are better than ours.

They also look at a host of metrics - and ND is consistently ahead of us, both in resume metrics (e.g. SOR, SP+ resume) and predictive metrics (e.g. SP+, Sagarin)
 
Genghis Cane said:
Funny that a head-to-head matchup is a “cherry picked” stat. Would think that’s a pretty **** relevant stat. But I guess you think that doesn’t matter. Common opponents? Doesn’t matter also, according to you.

And acting like we’re way behind ND in the metrics you cited is extremely disingenuous.

FPI? They are 5. We are 11.

SP+? They are 5. We are 10.

SOR? They are 12. We are 16

So, clearly, there is not much daylight separating us. You’re acting like there is some insane gap here when it simply doesn’t exist.

If only, in times like these, we had more “data” to figure out who truly belongs….

Maybe, a head-to-head?? Nah, that would be crazy….
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4-6 spots, in every single metric across the board, is not a trivial gap.

If we were ahead in some and we were ahead in others, then sure, it's a coinflip. Right now, it's not. It could change these next couple of weeks.
 
Genghis Cane said:
Funny that a head to head matchup is a “cherry picked” stat. Would think that’s the most relevant. But I guess you think that doesn’t matter. Common opponents? Doesn’t matter also, according to you.

And acting like we’re way behind ND in the metrics you cited is extremely disingenuous.

FPI? They are 5. We are 11.

SP+? They are 5. We are 10.

SOR? They are 12. We are 16

So, clearly, there is not much daylight separating us. You’re acting like there is some insane gap here when it simply doesn’t exist.

If only, in times like these, we had more “data” to figure out who truly belongs….

Maybe, a head-to-head?? Nah, that would be crazy….
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We should be ahead of ND because we have the same record and we beat them head to head. We are not because the rules don’t apply equally. Everyone here is making a valid point. As I have now said for the third time, if this is how it goes, we should bring a federal anti-trust lawsuit for unfair competition within a monopolistic system. If they set up rules they need to be held to account to follow them.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
4-6 spots, in every single metric across the board, is not a trivial gap.

If we were ahead in some and we were ahead in others, then sure, it's a coinflip. Right now, it's not. It could change these next couple of weeks.
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I disagree. That is trivial. If the gap was in the double digits, you might have a point.
 
Keeping an undefeated FSU out because of an injury was a pretty clear indicator that the game is rigged against ACC teams. If Mateer goes down for the season, you think the committee will drop OU? Of course not. ACCCG or bust.
 
Genghis Cane said:
I disagree. That is trivial. If the gap was in the double digits, you might have a point.
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I think a handful of spots in any single metric is trivial. But that's not the case here. It's a handful of spots in every single metric. Other than H2H, Miami has no current advantage over ND in the committee's stated criteria. Again, that could change the next 2 weeks.
 
Genghis Cane said:
I disagree. That is trivial. If the gap was in the double digits, you might have a point.
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I agree with you that Miami should be in over ND, but 2 spots, from 9 to 11, is the difference between making the cfp and not making the cfp. So a 5-10 spot difference in the metrics is substantial.
 
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dycane said:
Keeping an undefeated FSU out because of an injury was a pretty clear indicator that the game is rigged against ACC teams. If Mateer goes down for the season, you think the committee will drop OU? Of course not. ACCCG or bust.
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This is a good point. While I think that FSU minus the QB that season was a far lesser non-playoff team, it’s not supposed to work that way and I agree, OU would absolutely not be treated the way FSU was in a similar situation.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
I think a handful of spots in any single metric is trivial. But that's not the case here. It's a handful of spots in every single metric. Other than H2H, Miami has no current advantage over ND in the committee's stated criteria. Again, that could change the next 2 weeks.
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1. Head-to-head results
2. Results against common opponents
3. Conference championships
4. Strength of schedule
5. Strength of record
6. Quality wins (ranked wins)
7. Game control / eye test
8. Losses (quality of losses)
9. Overall team résumé and performance metrics

These are the CFP metrics in order of importance. We have the advantage on ND in metrics 1, 2, and 6. They have the advantage on 4, 5, 7, and 8. Again, 4 and 5 are a wash, and we lead on the top two. So that’s hardly “no current advantage.”
 
ALLoverCANE said:
I think a handful of spots in any single metric is trivial. But that's not the case here. It's a handful of spots in every single metric. Other than H2H, Miami has no current advantage over ND in the committee's stated criteria. Again, that could change the next 2 weeks.
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the fact they didn't play a FCS team this year is helping them in most of those metrics. Miami is getting punished for having BCC on the schedule instead of two G5 schools like ND does. So Miami is going to continue to be behind them in those metrics if things continue the way they are which sucks because it ignores both teams are playing weaker opponents Miami's was just weaker.
 
dycane said:
Keeping an undefeated FSU out because of an injury was a pretty clear indicator that the game is rigged against ACC teams. If Mateer goes down for the season, you think the committee will drop OU? Of course not. ACCCG or bust.
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Mateer has not won any games for OU. Jordan Travis put that team on his back every week. It’s a bit different. Also I think they would keep them out.
 
OrangeSlidez said:
Why isn’t SMU being shown as a 2 loss team in the graphic. I’d assume they only loose 1
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They need to lose one. The biggest domino is GT losing next week. If they don't, it eliminates most of the paths for us, or all if I'm not mistaken.
 
OldhamA said:
Do rankings mean anything when the majority of the SEC ranked wins are because they have a circle-jerk in the pre-season and rank everyone in that god**** Conference so there are no bad losses?
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I know the AP and Coaches polls take a back seat to the CFPO rankings, but there are 3 teams with 3 loses that are still ranked.
They're also from the same conference.
Guess which one?
 
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FL Cane said:
1. Head-to-head results
2. Results against common opponents
3. Conference championships
4. Strength of schedule
5. Strength of record
6. Quality wins (ranked wins)
7. Game control / eye test
8. Losses (quality of losses)
9. Overall team résumé and performance metrics

These are the CFP metrics in order of importance. We have the advantage on ND in metrics 1, 2, and 6. They have the advantage on 4, 5, 7, and 8. Again, 4 and 5 are a wash, and we lead on the top two. So that’s hardly “no current advantage.”
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What's your source for that? It's clearly wrong. They have said repeatedly that H2H is not anything close to their top criteria
 
TOcane said:
Mateer has not won any games for OU. Jordan Travis put that team on his back every week. It’s a bit different. Also I think they would keep them out.
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