This model means virtually nothing. They have JMU at 52.4% when JMU literally has 2-3% chance of making the playoffs (if Duke wins out and wins the ACC-CCG).
Tulane and North Texas are the group 5 teams that matter. Tulane beat ECU, northwestern and Duke. North Texas beat navy. Louisville beat JMU.
Idk how their tiebreakers work; right now Tulane and north Texas are in a 4 way tie with navy and ECU. ECU winning the CCG; along with Duke winning the CCG; would give JMU a chance.
Army went 12-1; winning the American with a their only loss being against notre dame; and didn’t get in.