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The Ole Miss Thread

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@OrangeBowlMagic
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ll do a deep dive tomorrow on the Ole Miss defense, but unless Chambliss just plays like an NFL MVP in this game, if we lose, it’s on Dawson and the offense. Their defense is 45th in FEI. Significantly worse than Pitt, SMU, Louisville, even USF and Florida and honestly more on par with FSU and Stanford. This is really like the 8th or 9th best defense we’ve faced this year. If we don’t have a ton of success and score a lot of points in this game, we don’t deserve to win a natty. There is no reason to not go kick their *** up and down the field when we have the football. 30+ or bust, for sure.
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following up on this.

did you compare stats between the Ole Miss offense and the Miami D and the Miami offense and the Ole Miss D?

if not, get with it meng. we dumb, poor plebes need the intelligentsia to guide us, meng
 
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hurricaneman said:
I watched the Washington State game, Florida, and LSU. I gotta say...this team lives on the absolute edge. They succeed when things are chaotic and they sputter when things become traditional. But man, all 3 of those games could have easily been L's for them. I watched those games because those aren't particularly great teams but found success against them.

I'm absolutely shocked Chambliss doesn't have more than 3 INTs. There were so many plays where LBs and DEs are dropping back in coverage on the quick passes and these guys either take one step the wrong way or just aren't quick enough and are getting finger tips on a lot of these balls. If Heatherman can scheme it up there are some balls that would absolutely be going the other way and nobody is going to stop the defender. Contain on Chambliss during his scrambles is also really important and I hope they're preaching it. You can't over pursue and you have to work in tandem with the guys you're chasing him with. Force him to the sidelines and make him throw a pass with hands in his face or take him down. When he escapes that's when he does the most damage.

Much of the success of their offense seems to be just waiting for that explosive play from either a wide open crosser or Lacy busting through a tired d-line. If those aren't there the offense stalls out. It makes sense why in the FL/LSU/Wash St games they couldn't put up a ton of points.

I think the spectrum for this game ranges from Ole Miss winning by 1 score to Miami winning by 3 scores. I don't see things collapsing for Miami but I can absolutely see things collapsing for them if the defense finds their groove or Lacy isn't 100%. I thought them not having a coaching staff to prepare would be a problem but honestly, they're better off just rolling with chaos.

A couple other things:

-Some of the stuff they do reminds me of FSU and Malzahn. They even ran that bulls*** look to the sideline like you're waiting for the play then clap and snap the ball while the defense isn't ready.

-Lots of 4th down gambles that kept them in games. Really curious how that goes without Kiffin. This is the type of thing where I say they live on the edge. A couple of these could have lost them these games, had they gone the other way or had they chose to punt/FG.

-Defense is very meh. They can get after it at times but I can see why all the teams they play get to their season average.

-If we stop Lacy then it's going to be very hard for them to win

-I have found it very funny watching college football over the past few years and seeing a lot of stadiums pretty empty, even though Miami gets so much s*** for having empty stadiums. This was a shot of their stadium from the broadcast vs Washington State. The #4 team in the country.

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UF caused most havoc but Lacy gashed them for 200+ yards.. They got multiple sacks on Chambliss (want to say 5) and got an INT with a DE catching the TE crosser they eat on soo much. (guessing thats more from Norm Chow stuff). When I watch their offense I see soooo much Briles influence, I dont think people connect it because they dont do the extreme wide splits soo much. But watching the tape you see the quick pass game and being completely comfortable with 5 yard hitch to stay on track as extension of run game. You see the deep choice routes, where if corner is off they come back in space and if pressed they spam the fade routes til you die. You see the one man routes and deep shots while other side might fake a hitch. Verticle RPOs. All Briles stuff to me.

I thought a bunch of teams defenses did decent enough but their offenses left them hanging. USCe had a close game late in 3rd. Okla. no offense also. They played the bottom 5 SEC offenses, nice I guess. They do have weapons though. I have complained about our WR recruiting for a while and it irks the **** out of me because yea we miss out on Judas Smith but there are talented WR everywhere. So Stribling being in portal twice Im aware of his game and it ****es me off when you see talent can be had and not expensive but we dont go after it. Dude to me in this offense is like break in case of emergency for them, they have other weapons but he reminds me of a Jamar Chase type. Kinda Blasphemous to type but strong WR with great play speed. They have weapons. Sigh.

Against UGA game #2, they took the FGs more than go for it so the coaching definitely changed. They have a great strong leg kicker who is good from 55 yards+.. But like you mentioned they have typically been very aggressive for 4th downs.
 
CaneandAbel said:
I probably won't go as far as you Ole Miss is a great team but they did get a lucky draw with playing 2 teams they already played. Tulane was never going to beat them and in the Georgia case, the cliché hard to beat a team twice played a factor there. Also as much as the Lane stuff makes them a good story. At some point its a distraction that and Chambliss waiver situation I think we'll be the more prepared team on Thursday.
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It's not that I don't think they are good, it's that I don't think they are AS good as their record suggests. The SEC was very weak this year, and they played no one OOC.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
They blitz at one of the lowest rates in the country. Maybe Golding dials that up this week, but that's not who they are. I expect them to stay true to who they are, and sit back in zone. Beck and Dawson have to continue to do what we do best, which is carve up defenses in the short passing game when Beck is clean. When he's clean, he's fantastic. Completion percentage of almost 80%, awesome passing grade, etc. We give up the lowest pressure rate in America, and Ole Miss generates no pressure.

I'm nervous just because I'm a puddle of emotion and we're a game away from playing for a **** natty, which is still bizarre to try to comprehend. But honestly, if I'm an Ole Miss fan, I'm even more nervous, because I've got Chambliss and he's coming off his best game of the season, but other than that, I'm looking at the best defense I've seen all year, and I'm looking at the best OL I've seen all year. I'm not great on defense, and Miami isn't an offensive juggernaut, but they have a mauling OL who won't let me near their QB, that QB is a 5th year player who is really protecting the ball right now, and they have skill players everywhere on offense who are better than my guys on defense. I have 2 very good DTs, I like that. But if #4 gets through that first line and into my 2nd level, he's going to hurt by backers and DBs. I've given up 5 runs this season of 40+ yards, which is 94th in America. (Miami has given up zero). I've given up 8 runs of 30+ yards. Can I tackle #4 when he's running loose in my secondary?

A QB playing on God mode can almost win a game by himself. It's like an elite ace in baseball. So of course if Chambliss plays like he played against UGA, they have a great shot to win. But Miami's defense is better than Georgia's, full ******* stop.

Can we get 30 on offense? I keep coming back to that. We haven't given up more than 24 points in a game all year. We've given up 24 points TOTAL in our last 3 games. If Chambliss goes nuclear and they drop 34 points on us, so be it. They probably deserve to be in the natty. I don't think that's gonna happen, not at the pace we play and how much we hold the football. So give me 30 on offense and let's see what happens. We should be able to do that against their defense, but we do need to generate more explosives than we have been.
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If you tell me Miami scored 30 and my choice is to take that without knowing any other details, I am taking that deal 100/100 times.

If we are giving up more than 30 points, I see us having a hard time winning that game.
 
skyman said:
UF caused most havoc but Lacy gashed them for 200+ yards.. They got multiple sacks on Chambliss (want to say 5) and got an INT with a DE catching the TE crosser they eat on soo much. (guessing thats more from Norm Chow stuff). When I watch their offense I see soooo much Briles influence, I dont think people connect it because they dont do the extreme wide splits soo much. But watching the tape you see the quick pass game and being completely comfortable with 5 yard hitch to stay on track as extension of run game. You see the deep choice routes, where if corner is off they come back in space and if pressed they spam the fade routes til you die. You see the one man routes and deep shots while other side might fake a hitch. Verticle RPOs. All Briles stuff to me.

I thought a bunch of teams defenses did decent enough but their offenses left them hanging. USCe had a close game late in 3rd. Okla. no offense also. They played the bottom 5 SEC offenses, nice I guess. They do have weapons though. I have complained about our WR recruiting for a while and it irks the **** out of me because yea we miss out on Judas Smith but there are talented WR everywhere. So Stribling being in portal twice Im aware of his game and it ****es me off when you see talent can be had and not expensive but we dont go after it. Dude to me in this offense is like break in case of emergency for them, they have other weapons but he reminds me of a Jamar Chase type. Kinda Blasphemous to type but strong WR with great play speed. They have weapons. Sigh.

Against UGA game #2, they took the FGs more than go for it so the coaching definitely changed. They have a great strong leg kicker who is good from 55 yards+.. But like you mentioned they have typically been very aggressive for 4th downs.
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I eventually watched that Oklahoma game and man, Mateer was absolutely trash down the stretch. The same thing happened with Florida. Same with Washington State. Those offenses just needed something at the end but they were inept. They needed what Miami has, which is long and physical drives to close games out. It may be another case where Miami is up 3 or 7 with 8 minutes left and they go on a drive to close out the game. That's what all those teams couldn't do.

-Oklahoma received a punt down 5 with 7:00 left and fumbled. They got the ball back again down 8 with 4:00 left and couldn't do anything.
-Washington State gets the ball down 3 with 12:00 left and can't put a drive together. Get the ball back down 3 with 1:00 left and can't do anything.
-Florida, down 3, stops them on 4th down and gets the ball back with 2:00+ minutes left and can't go down the field. Also had the ball with 9:00 left and threw an INT in Ole Miss territory
-Georgia is 1st and goal with 1:00 left and can't get a TD
-Arkansas has the ball down 6 at the Ole Miss 30 yard line with 1:50 left and fumble
-Kentucky is down 7 at the Ole Miss 30 with 5:00 left and turn it over on downs

This is what I mean when I say they live on the edge. It's not just Chambliss scrambling for his life, extending plays. It's not just the 4th down conversions. It's a team living entirely on the edge and somehow coming out on top each time. It's wild. It's also why I think Miami could go in there and just absolutely dominate. Or they continue to live on that edge, play fantastic on offense, and it's an absolute struggle for us to keep pace.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Go look at who they played even within the SEC….
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Not exactly a hard schedule. And scraping by Arkansas? I get the excitement over them winning a couple games without a coach, and their QB looking good, but they simply have not been that tested. Georgia was a paper tiger. OU as well. Just a terrible conference this year.
 
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ThomasM said:
Not exactly a hard schedule. And scraping by Arkansas? I get the excitement over them winning a couple games without a coach, and their QB looking good, but they simply have not been that tested. Georgia was a paper tiger. OU as well. Just a terrible conference this year.
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They also lost to Georgia once and gave up 43 points and beat them when they gave up 34.

If they let us get 34 we're winning this game.
 
Sorry if already discussed—I haven't been keeping up with the thread—but how do Ole Miss' receivers stack up compared to TAMU and OSU? I keep hearing about how the guys Chambliss throws to during the scramble plays and how our secondary will struggle to cover them. Haven't followed Ole Miss enough to know, but I feel our secondary has stood tall this year (pass rush definitely a factor).
 
PIPO said:
If you tell me Miami scored 30 and my choice is to take that without knowing any other details, I am taking that deal 100/100 times.

If we are giving up more than 30 points, I see us having a hard time winning that game.
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The most we gave up all year was 26 to SMU and 6 of that was in OT. We gave up 24 twice, once to ND and once to Louisville.
 
CreativeCane said:
Sorry if already discussed—I haven't been keeping up with the thread—but how do Ole Miss' receivers stack up compared to TAMU and OSU? I keep hearing about how the guys Chambliss throws to during the scramble plays and how our secondary will struggle to cover them. Haven't followed Ole Miss enough to know, but I feel our secondary has stood tall this year (pass rush definitely a factor).
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Worse. Just track stars who can occasionally win a 1 on 1. Don’t think receivers want to get in a track meet with Miami athletes but they’re not as talented, although they are still pretty **** good in their own right. But they’ve got nothing on Smith, Tate and Concepcion
 
Big thing I’m counting on is they haven’t had to gameplan anyone since Kiffin left. This is their first clean slate game that we see what their actual staff is made of
 
ThomasM said:
Am I the only one that thinks Beck and Co will go off this game?
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Seems like Dawson really structures around what the team is doing in game. You'd think they'd rather test Beck and the passing game vs letting us run the ball. That being said, this is also true:

Ole Miss Rushing Defense vs Rushing Offenses Played:
#26 Arkansas: 192 avg (gave up 221)
#32 UGA: 182 avg (gave up 221)
#32 UGA: 182 avg (gave up 124)
#52 Tulane: 166 avg (gave up 178)
#52 Tulane: 166 avg (gave up 115)
#71 Miss St: 148 avg (gave up 262)
#82 Wash St : 136 avg (gave up 127)
#90 Kentucky: 133 avg (gave up 172)
#95 UF: 131 avg (gave up 108)
#104 Oklahoma: 120 avg (gave up 136)
#118 USCe: 110 avg (gave up 50)
#123 LSU: 104 avg (gave up 57)
#130 Georgia State: 124 avg (gave up 191)

Miami Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense:

#7 Ohio State: 89 avg (gave up 153 to Miami)
#8 Pitt: 95 avg (gave up 140)
#10 Notre Dame: 99 avg (gave up 134)
#20 SMU: 111 avg (gave up 159)
#24 Louisville: 114 avg (gave up 63)
#25 Stanford: 119 avg (gave up 199)
#40 Texas A&M: 131 avg (gave up 175)

Miami faced 7 top 50 rushing defenses and exceeded that teams average in 6 out of the 7. Ole Miss had 3 games against top 50 rushing offenses and gave up more yards in 2 out of 3. Also worth noting Ole Miss faced a lot of bad rushing offenses and are still ranked 65th.
 
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ThomasM said:
Am I the only one that thinks Beck and Co will go off this game?
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I think the Offense is salivating rn. Two games and though they've been instrumental, they're itching for some explosives. Mark put'em in a stretch Fletcher will be knocking some people back and those hits will take a toll to demoralize them, but I keep thinking Pringle or Marty are going to have a big game.
 
TooColdToHold said:
In Toney’s defense, Dawson has put way too much on the plate of a true freshman.
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jakeman1 said:
Toney might be hitting that freshman wall, especially considering her should be a senior in high school right now. He's done a great job without the ball though. This also might be a game where Pringle can get more touches.
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I didnt think about it in those terms until you two guys noted it. I tend to agree. We've overused Toney in the second half of the season and he may now be hitting that freshman wall. Hopefully the staff sees what we're seeing.
 
SFbayCane said:
I didnt think about it in those terms until you two guys noted it. I tend to agree. We've overused Toney in the second half of the season and he may now be hitting that freshman wall. Hopefully the staff sees what we're seeing.
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This can all be true AND we played two really good pass defenses that knew how to cover him without another huge threat. Ole Miss doesn't match that level of pass defense. I hope this is a bit like the FSU or Pitt games where we just hit them on multiple fronts and keep them off balance. Marion is due for a deep ball at some point.
 
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