forums

TAMU Defensive Strengths and Opportunities

kryptonite said:
That's what I meant. Let's say you start Ivey, then lose the HC job. I get hired. I've got complete freedom to not play Ivey...I didn't recruit him, I didn't place my faith in him last year, I never told another guy on the team I was riding with Ivey over them. How does not starting him have anything to do with my ego? Not starting him is an indictment of past staffs, not me.
Click to expand...
You’re overthinking it maybe...

They start him because of his physical size & their ego makes them believe they can get something out of him & mold him into a player that the last guys couldn’t, but alas...
 
Advertisement
DTP said:
I’ve watched both their games and their defense is legit. Especially the guys up front. Although it’s hard to say how great they are playing against two outmatched offensive lines. If you look strictly at the numbers from the App game, you’d have a hard time believing they lost. I’m curious what percentage of teams hold an opponent to under 4 yards per play and still lose. It’s got to be <5%. The idea that App State set the formula for how to defeat them is nonsense. Their offense is trash so playing keep away isn’t really that beneficial. I’m in the camp that if we can score early, we can put the game away. This might be a race to 21 points.
Click to expand...
Bingo! I couldn't agree with you more! My thoughts are that this has to be a team with doubts creeping in. If we can come out and take it to them through the air and get a couple of quick scores they just might fold up.
 
Liberty City El said:
You’re overthinking it maybe...

They start him because of his physical size & their ego makes them believe they can get something out of him & mold him into a player that the last guys couldn’t, but alas...
Click to expand...
Ah, I see. I thought you meant like when you keep starting a guy because you started him before and you don't want to admit you were wrong to start him.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I posted it in another thread, but check out Bill Connelly's advanced box score on the App State game. When I get a minute, I'll link it here, but it's on his Twitter. App State had a 22% postgame win expectancy. What they did is not any kind of sustainable blueprint, specifically their offense. And remember, this offense just torched UNC the week before. So I think anyone underestimating A&M's defense is incredibly misinformed. They're better up front than we are on the offensive line. We couldn't block Southern Miss last week, now here comes waves of 4 and 5 stars, who are ****ed off and playing in front of the biggest crowd in the history of Kyle Field.

I still think we can absolutely win this game because we have the far superior quarterback, but if there are any of you out there saying "Well App State beat them, how good can they be?" I implore you to watch the game and check out the advanced metrics. App State averaged 3.8 yards per play, they had a 38% success rate (terrible) and a 3.7% explosive play rate (very terrible). Meaning, they got VERY lucky that they were able to sustain drives with such a low output per play and virtually no explosive plays. It was the literal definition of 3 yards and a cloud of dust. App State won the game because they were able to convert a lot of short 3rd and 4th downs, which again isn't incredibly sustainable, and the A&M offense is terrible. They also won the turnover battle, 2-0. So yes, if you can guarantee me that A&M will turn it over twice, we won't turn it over at all, and we'll be able to convert almost 50% of our 3rd downs and multiple 4th downs, then I'll agree with you that we can do what App State did on offense and win. But I don't think that's very realistic. Meaning our offense is going to need to be efficient against a very nasty defense, especially in the secondary (hello, receivers?). The total in this game is 48. That's very, very low for a college football game featuring ranked teams. I don't think we can sniff 30 points without help from the A&M offense, but if we do, I think we win going away. I just don't see that offense exploding. Expect a hard-fought, low scoring game. If we get through the 1st quarter and TVD is still upright and we have some decent rushing numbers, we're gonna win. If we see 2020 Clemson all over again, where the QB is on his *** before he hits his back foot and we can't open a crack, nevermind a hole, it's gonna be a long night.
Click to expand...
TAMU had a Total of 186 yards of offense.

APP ST. had two TD's called back that resulted in Field goals or else it might have been worse for TAMU.

I agree we will see a different TAMU but to try to justify them losing to APP is comical.
 
UMFarArcher said:
That was one of the questions I was going to ask.

How many points do we need to win?

And if it's above 30, it's going to take a lot more than a long string of run-three-up-the-middles.

Lord, I hope we don't come out flat for the first half! Need to smack them in the mouth - and keep smacking.
Click to expand...
We aren't sniffing 30pts against this D, our defense has to come to play for us to have any chance. If we can hold them around 17 or less, we have a shot. Frankly, don't think we will. I predict something like 23-13 A&M
 
This is definitely one of those games that's a total mystery going in. Not sure what to make of either team based on what we've seen.

I'm more interested in seeing how Miami competes and how we look against a team with as much or more talent then we do. So many times in the past with these types of games we've seen Miami **** down their own leg repeatedly, and seem unprepared and overmatched.
 
1. When you have a talent deficiency - and to be clear they ARE the more talented team - you want to shorten the game & reduce the number of possessions in order to increase variance.

2. Mario is predisposed to running the ball.

3. aTm/Durkin runs a lot of 3 man fronts.

4. In the pass game, historically Durkin ran a defense in the Iowa State mold, whereby they try to get pressure with their front 3 and drop 8 into coverage. Jimbo/Elke was running a 4-2-5 the past few seasons.

Combing these 4 things, and I think we will see Miami lean on the run game. I think Mario will be just find turning this into a rock fight.

There is basically no doubt in my mind that we haven’t shown the bulk of our stuff offensively. What that is, I have no idea. I would guess Brashard Smith, but if the X news is true, Brashard won’t be sneaking up on anyone.

Tough to see how we move the ball, tbqh.
 
Liberty City El said:
You’re overthinking it maybe...

They start him because of his physical size & their ego makes them believe they can get something out of him & mold him into a player that the last guys couldn’t, but alas...
Click to expand...

Correct. Every coach thinks they can win a reclamation project and tbh, Ivey probably excels at practice. Some people just ignore 3 years of film and would rather focus on practice highlights, which we all know, is a yuge mistake. The other reality is that our backups are sub optimal and coaches would always prefer to go with the guy that "knows his assignments". SSDD.

As for ATM defense, they are big and physical. Their LBs can run and their safeties are very physical. Typically with physical teams like this, the running game is not going to work well. They remind me of old FSU teams - very physical DL and running the ball is always tough sledding. With these kinds of games, the passing game is the thing that needs to excel in order to win and soften up that defensive front. I'm no convinced our WRs can consistently win 1v1 battles so it will have to be up to TEs and RBs in the passing game.
 
Our D needs to come out and punch them in the mouth. End of story. Parrish all day.
 
Advertisement
skyman said:
They shut down throwing in this game because the run was working and qb threw early pick in like double coverage.. plus the elements were not up to snuff..

I like the msu game also because it was on the road and pretty sure its known Gattis LOVES flea flicker lol..

Click to expand...

We can haz #1?
 
Feels like the kind of game a guy like Citizen is made for. I know the kid hasn’t played in college yet, who knows what we’re actually gonna get, but by all accounts he’s built for this level of opposing talent and strength.

Doesn’t help at all, obviously. Just an observation. We’ll need that type down the line to give us a better shot in games like this, whether sooner or later.

To Cribby’s point, we just can’t afford to be losing guys this season, let alone arguably some of our more talented ones. Hope we’re done with all that.
 
Liberty City El said:
You’re overthinking it maybe...

They start him because of his physical size & their ego makes them believe they can get something out of him & mold him into a player that the last guys couldn’t, but alas...
Click to expand...
I think this is right. All good coaches have a certain amount of ego. But so do many of the poor ones.

They see a strong, tall player with length who shows desire and drive and they all think, "last staph couldn't get him there, but I can." But maybe... and very sadly... the truth is nobody can.
 
Back
Top