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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Tony4Canes said:
Thoughts?


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I don't think the change is a bad thing for larger caps, but the small/micro caps (especially the ADRs) the exchanges list it could be disaster for investors only posting earnings twice a year.

For the largecap case just look at Meta, Netflix, and Spotify during the '22 bear market. Those got sold to levels they had no business getting sold to, and I think it's pretty clear that it would have been better for investors had they only posted twice a year considering they were all massively restructuring their biz models.
 
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Michigan gonna get even more WRs for Underwood. Divorce wife 5 Larry, marry wife 6 (who didn't graduate from Michigan)
 
Fed cuts rate by a quarter-point today, signals two more cuts by year's end.

I'm dying for a re-fi, I'm at 7.499%, talked to a lender yesterday he said he can get 6.125%....what do you guys think, with this news we should be under 6 sometime this year for a refi, no? Help a clueless brother out.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Fed cuts rate by a quarter-point today, signals two more cuts by year's end.

I'm dying for a re-fi, I'm at 7.499%, talked to a lender yesterday he said he can get 6.125%....what do you guys think, with this news we should be under 6 sometime this year for a refi, no? Help a clueless brother out.
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Someone on here in Mortgage business so he could answer better than me but if you can hold, wait a few months.
 
Crash over. Less than an hour this time (No jinx, forgot to add lol)
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Fed cuts rate by a quarter-point today, signals two more cuts by year's end.

I'm dying for a re-fi, I'm at 7.499%, talked to a lender yesterday he said he can get 6.125%....what do you guys think, with this news we should be under 6 sometime this year for a refi, no? Help a clueless brother out.
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Most mortgage rates are loosely tied to the 10y treasury + 2-3% (the spread).

The FED Funds are not directly tied to the 10y. Instead, the bond market determines the rate they are willing to pay for buying long-duration bonds, be it treasuries or mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These longer duration investors are likely looking at a number of factors: FED Funds, unemployment, GDP, national debt...

My opinion: we see the 10yr and mortgage rates continue down under 6% and we also see 2 more FED Fund rate cuts. Now if inflation comes raging back, the real estate market heats up, unemployment heats up... we very well maybe looking at the lowest rates we will see. I personally have a bunch of 6.5-8% loans but I'm holding out for 5-5.5% for most. A good percentage of the assets I plan to sell soon, so no point in refinancing. Any that I'm going to hold, I'll refi once it makes sense. How I determine when/if?

Cost to refi = $A (amount)
$a/6 < Old bill-New Bill

I may be willing to do $a/12 or $a/18 if I think I'll keep the asset for much longer.

Example:$500k loan
$4000 refi cost including lawyer, apprasial...
(7.5%) Old $1750, (5.5%)new $1420 = $330/month savings
12-month payoff of refi cost. 330*12 = $3960
Now you technically can just roll that into the loan ($0 closing cost) to reduce your risk and allow you to refi every 6 months. You may need to pay for the appraisal out of pocket so $600-800.

My two cents. Hope that helps you or anyone else.
 
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One more thing:

The FED is still doing QT. What does that mean? QT reduces the money supply as the FED doesn’t purchase replacement bonds for the bonds that mature. Thus, new buyers are needed just to keep the money supply the same. This drives up the cost of money OR rates especially mid and long duration investments.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level

View the total value of the assets of all Federal Reserve Banks as reported in the weekly balance sheet.
fred.stlouisfed.org
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Fed cuts rate by a quarter-point today, signals two more cuts by year's end.

I'm dying for a re-fi, I'm at 7.499%, talked to a lender yesterday he said he can get 6.125%....what do you guys think, with this news we should be under 6 sometime this year for a refi, no? Help a clueless brother out.
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I think 6.125 is ok if it’s a conventional. If FHA you could get it under 6 for sure.

I don’t work in originations but I’m in mortgage servicing. I’m streamlining a FHA right now locked at 5.75.

The IR cuts won’t have much of an effect but for the last two weeks rates have been at their lowest in a year or more.

If you have an FHA now I’d go ahead and streamline at whatever is offered by your mortgage company. You can streamline every 6 months anyway with no closing costs or credit check. Just an appraisal (sometimes not even) and your ID/utility bill.

Here are the past few months from the federal reserve 1 year constant.

IMG_5993.jpeg


The past two weeks have held steady. Rates are posted Tuesday/Wednesday for each week. If you want to hold off I can give an update.

If you lock in now and the rate is drastically lower the lender should adjust it. I can’t recall exactly how much difference between the lock in and new rate qualifies for an update though.
 
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mirvin88 said:
I think 6.125 is ok if it’s a conventional. If FHA you could get it under 6 for sure.

I don’t work in originations but I’m in mortgage servicing. I’m streamlining a FHA right now locked at 5.75.

The IR cuts won’t have much of an effect but for the last two weeks rates have been at their lowest in a year or more.

If you have an FHA now I’d go ahead and streamline at whatever is offered by your mortgage company. You can streamline every 6 months anyway with no closing costs or credit check. Just an appraisal (sometimes not even) and your ID/utility bill.

Here are the past few months from the federal reserve 1 year constant.

View attachment 336184

The past two weeks have held steady. Rates are posted Tuesday/Wednesday for each week. If you want to hold off I can give an update.

If you lock in now and the rate is drastically lower the lender should adjust it. I can’t recall exactly how much difference between the lock in and new rate qualifies for an update though.
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My current loan is a conventional loan. I don't think I qualify for an FHA maybe because of the amount of the loan?
 
mirvin88 said:
I’m going to ask somebody on our originations side their thoughts on the conventional rates.
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You're the man. I think if I could even get 5.75% I'd do it today. That probably saves me a grand a month. Always fun to try to hit the timing right on, though. (I know you can't and shouldn't even try, but I do kind of have a feeling they're going to continue to drop from what they are today, even if it's just a little.)
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
You're the man. I think if I could even get 5.75% I'd do it today. That probably saves me a grand a month. Always fun to try to hit the timing right on, though. (I know you can't and shouldn't even try, but I do kind of have a feeling they're going to continue to drop from what they are today, even if it's just a little.)
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6 to 6.125 for conventional is the lowest at the moment.

The FHA loan amount limit ranges between 450k-1.2m depending on the area.

Keep in mind FHA loans you’ll never get rid of MIP. Unless you put a large amount down already and you don’t have PMI with your conventional this won’t matter really for 8-10 years. At that point normally your loan to value ratio is low enough for PMI to drop, MIP would never.
 
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mirvin88 said:
6 to 6.125 for conventional is the lowest at the moment.

The FHA loan amount limit ranges between 450k-1.2m depending on the area.

Keep in mind FHA loans you’ll never get rid of MIP. Unless you put a large amount down already and you don’t have PMI with your conventional this won’t matter really for 8-10 years. At that point normally your loan to value ratio is low enough for PMI should drop, MIP would never.
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That's what I was seeing too. I still think it's going to drop a little more by the end of the year, I really want to re-fi before the end of the year if possible but I think another month or two we'll start to see high-fives. I'll pull the trigger then.

I probably want to stay conventional because I am paying PMI right now but I should be able to shed that in the next couple years. Really don't want to get stuck with MIP for the life of any loan I have.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
That's what I was seeing too. I still think it's going to drop a little more by the end of the year, I really want to re-fi before the end of the year if possible but I think another month or two we'll start to see high-fives. I'll pull the trigger then.

I probably want to stay conventional because I am paying PMI right now but I should be able to shed that in the next couple years. Really don't want to get stuck with MIP for the life of any loan I have.
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Totally agree under your circumstances. I went with an FHA for the flexibility to keep chipping away at the IR without much cost. That way I could just pull the trigger whenever I saw it lower and not think “what if” in a few weeks/months. The MIP won’t matter so much, I’ll be renting this out in a few years.
 
mirvin88 said:
Totally agree under your circumstances. I went with an FHA for the flexibility to keep chipping away at the IR without much cost. That way I could just pull the trigger whenever I saw it lower and not think “what if” in a few weeks/months. The MIP won’t matter so much, I’ll be renting this out in a few years.
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What's the general rule? You can re-fi an FHA whenever you want but conventional is usually only every 6 months? Or is that totally off?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
What's the general rule? You can re-fi an FHA whenever you want but conventional is usually only every 6 months? Or is that totally off?
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No frequency limits for convention. For FHA there’s no limit either, but every 210 days you can do a streamline where you usually pay nothing. At most an appraisal fee and no other closing costs like a conventional. No credit checks either. Just sign the forms and upload a utility bill and IDs. Right now most will be offering no appraisal fee I’m sure.
 
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