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Google beats on Q1 results…should help tech
5% increase in dividend
70 billion buyback
 
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Tesla poppin today
 

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flips said:
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....and still bullish. If we don't close the week above the "tarrif pause pump" prices I'll prolly change tune. We've knocked on the door and been rejected on like 4 subsequent trading days. Can't break through next time and we prolly tank. Should be some kind of announcement with some kind of country by end of week, or this is a complete clown show. Am still targeting the last FOMC meeting prices to take some profit off.

If we're going to avoid recessionary bear market '98 & '18 are useful analogs to look to.

'98 swept the low after a nice rally. '18 just ripped up till it got to the prior ATH.
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Where do you stand now?
 
90scane said:
Where do you stand now?
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Don't have strong conviction right now. I hope we push higher to ~565-570+ on SPY so I can take some profit on some longs I bought near trough, but if not I won't lose any money so not the worst outcome.

On Friday, SPY and QQQ closed above 50% of the selloff range for first time. There's also the gap up on Wednesday from last week. Way I'm trying to think about is:

Price generally stays above 50% correction level (meaning weekly closes) = very bullish
We don't completely fill the Tues/wed gap = bullish
We fill the gap but price balances just below (say max 3-5% below) the Tuesday high (like what happened on both in late 22/early 23) = still bullish, but I'll probably be sick to my stomach and find excuses not to buy until back above 50% level lol
 
@90scane

Am away from computer till Monday night but here prior major corrections/bears on SPY back to DotCom bust: (weekly closes only, while we we did retrace 50% of the intraday correction range on friday, still have a bit to go get to 50% on weekly close level)

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Takeaways: Quicker selloffs ('18 & '20) cross 50% and blast off. Longer bear markets see some upside on initial crosses but free and easy long term investor gains come from back tests (most recently seen in fall of '23).

My general rule is while it can be fun to trade long below 50% of the selloff, it's not advisable to try to invest long-term below that level. Dollar cost averaging in a declining market below 50% of the sell off range a great way to induce stress/get margin called/run out of cash way too early IMO (and experience lol).

If this is gonna be like '98/'18/'20 we close in coming weeks above 557 on SPY and shouldn't see subsequent weekly closes much below that. If we don't start closing the week above that soon and/or close above and start selling hard again, I'll assume the lows not in and just wait to invest long-term.
 
This week:
On the economic front, updates on inflation and economic growth in the first quarter will be in focus before the release of the April jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.

In corporate news, 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly financial results, headlined by Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Chevron (CVX).
Big Tech.
 
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SpikeUM said:
Its actually been very volatile, but up and down. I appreciate @flips technical analysis, I personally am also focused on gold and rates, which are both down as I write this.
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Am short GLD from last week. Had to change a few adult diapers but working out okay rn lol
 
Relative weakness of Nvidia to rest of market worth watching. Guess deepseek releasing new AI doodad which they trained on Hauwei chips
 
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