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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)
1.482M 0.04 1.45M 1.459M
12:30
USD Building Permits Change (Mar)
1.6% - - -1%
12:30
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.885M 0.66 1.87M 1.844M
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)
1.324M -1.03 1.42M 1.494M
12:30
USD Housing Starts Change (Mar)
-11.4% - - 9.8%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims
215K -4.14 225K 224K
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
220.75K - - 223.25K
12:30
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
-26.4 -1.17 2 12.5

March numbers.
Jobless claims down
Continuing jobless claims down
Housing starts down
April..
Manufacturing conditions down

As economic indicators continue to come out, remember that Trump inherited
2.9 GDP, 4% unemployment and lowering inflation…
 
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90scane said:
I’m sticking with defensive position. I think we are far from over on the bear market. Historically, the bottom is 12-18 months after the FED pivot. Not sure if they have Pivoted yet. Some could point to the rate cuts but those are pretty far in the review mirror.
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For me the key question is whether the market will continue to trend or are we in the midst of a transition from a trending market to a multi-decade balance/chop where price goes nowhere? Markets trend or they chop; doesn't matter the time frame you look at.

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I honestly don't know, and it's too early to tell with any certainty, but am leaning towards the chop theory. Structurally there are a lot of similarities with the early60s-early80s period when price went nowhere. Sub COVID Crash for '62, '22 bear mkt for '66, and perhaps this current market for the '68-70 bear. %-wise the price corrections have been similar so far. If history continues to rhyme that would suggest a 35-40% drop in SPX from this years highs which would put price around the '22&'23 lows.
 
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flips said:
Powell

For me the key question is whether the market will continue to trend or are we in the midst of a transition from a trending market to a multi-decade balance/chop where price goes nowhere? Markets trend or they chop; doesn't matter the time frame you look at.

View attachment 323232
I honestly don't know, and it's too early to tell with any certainty, but am leaning towards the chop theory. Structurally there are a lot of similarities with the early60s-early80s period when price went nowhere. Sub COVID Crash for '62, '22 bear mkt for '66, and perhaps this current market for the '68-70 bear. %-wise the price corrections have been similar so far. If history rhymes that would suggest a 35-40% drop in SPX from this years highs which would put price around the '22&'23 lows.
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Short term, I'm bearish due to the fundamentals.
Mid-Term, I'd like to see what comes of deficit spending, wars, China, taxes, rates, and where the bottom lands at for fundamentals.
Long-term, I'm bullish on AI, robotics, and technology, and bearish on population decline and consumer spending decline due to AI, robotics, and other technologies.
 
The only stock I purchased during this downturn was CRM Salesforce. A lot of people I know, who have small and medium sized businesses that use Salesforce for overall running of the company. Excellent service for marketing, communications and sales follow up.
I’m assuming that they are integrating AI which will make it more efficient….jmo
I did not buy a large amount…just sticking my toes in and watching.
Hopefully we do not fall into a full blown recession…GLTA
 


Am still bullish short term. Looking for ~5650-700 on ES and 19700-900 on NQ to sell some short term longs into
 
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Tony4Canes said:
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The play on this one is the 2-3% moving off of Visa/MC of Capital One cardholders.

CapOne already has direct processing for Walmart transactions. If they can process all transactions for their cardholders on the Discover network when possible, it would be a MASSIVE profit. It would also dent Visa/MC profits.

$115B of transactions annually is what I've read. That is around $2.5-3B of profits cut from Visa/MC and moved to CapOne/Discover IF they can close the deal and move the transactions.
 
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Added some Tesla at 224.50. Only a few as I was waiting for an earnings fall this week. Couldn’t resist the price so bought a small amount, but hoping for a sub 200 price this week.
 
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