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mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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Business Insider:
- Jamie Dimon has raked in $183 million from his planned sale of 1 million JPMorgan shares.
- JPMorgan's CEO sold stock worth $33 million on Monday, after selling a $150 million tranche in February.
- Dimon's first disposals in 19 years were for diversification and tax planning, JPMorgan said.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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This is a short term blip and the reason why so many investors lose their ***.
We have a strong economy. Jobs…jobs…jobs…made in America ..Inflation is still low, It is not runaway inflation. Talk of interest rate hikes are ridiculous. The Fed has signaled that they are in no rush to lower rates. That is different than saying no rate cuts. AI will spur tech growth long term. Every growth cycle takes a pause.
So you buying now?
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Think there will be a war in middle east and gas takes off?
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I'm buying here and there for only Tesla at the moment.. like 1 share a week on down days.
There are positives to buying now if you are going to hold for years:
Public debt will drive up assets, stocks, inflation...
The FED will need to do QE at some point soon (maybe 2024, very likely no later than 2025). They are also likely to drop rates at some point, too.
AI will drive up productivity and down the COGS
Some companies will do just fine
There are negatives to buying now:
ME war is possible which would likely drive up oil prices
public debt could cause the bond market to fall apart which is bad for stocks
regional banks are close to failure due to MTM losses
Stagflation appears very likely with a wage/price spiral
Jobs growth is mostly government and healthcare jobs, not private sector
Public Debt to GDP has never been this high including in the 1940s
The inverted curve is past 600 days, the last ones over 500 days each caused 50-90% drops in stocks.
Public debt will drive up assets, stocks, inflation...
The FED will need to do QE at some point soon (maybe 2024, very likely no later than 2025). They are also likely to drop rates at some point, too.
AI will drive up productivity and down the COGS
Some companies will do just fine
There are negatives to buying now:
ME war is possible which would likely drive up oil prices
public debt could cause the bond market to fall apart which is bad for stocks
regional banks are close to failure due to MTM losses
Stagflation appears very likely with a wage/price spiral
Jobs growth is mostly government and healthcare jobs, not private sector
Public Debt to GDP has never been this high including in the 1940s
The inverted curve is past 600 days, the last ones over 500 days each caused 50-90% drops in stocks.
Excerpts from ML yesterday:
The economy that can’t stop; the Fed that won’t stop it
Each sector still seems impervious to Fed hikes: consumers are strong, corporates have$7tn in cash, and Congress can’t stop spending (see barometer update, Exhibit 3). Supercore inflation is surging; prices for essentials outpace wages (gas +49%; utilities +27%;food +21% - Exhibit 2). As the “2% world” of the past two decades reverts to the 5% norms of the 20th century, easy financial conditions fuel a bubble in “imprudent yield”
Government: The Fed can’t make Congress spend less. Government spending equals 44% of the economy, and the deficit at 6% of GDP has never been this wide outside of war or depression. Only 20% of the “Inflation Reduction Act” has been spent, and from now on, every Treasury auction causes US interest expense to rise as we replace cheap T-bills with more expensive debt.
Fed hikes haven’t worked. Progress on containing inflation has stalled and our economists don’t expect the Fed to cut rates until December. Investors are trained to chase the wrong assets after more than a decade of easy money and ample liquidity
The economy that can’t stop; the Fed that won’t stop it
Each sector still seems impervious to Fed hikes: consumers are strong, corporates have$7tn in cash, and Congress can’t stop spending (see barometer update, Exhibit 3). Supercore inflation is surging; prices for essentials outpace wages (gas +49%; utilities +27%;food +21% - Exhibit 2). As the “2% world” of the past two decades reverts to the 5% norms of the 20th century, easy financial conditions fuel a bubble in “imprudent yield”
Government: The Fed can’t make Congress spend less. Government spending equals 44% of the economy, and the deficit at 6% of GDP has never been this wide outside of war or depression. Only 20% of the “Inflation Reduction Act” has been spent, and from now on, every Treasury auction causes US interest expense to rise as we replace cheap T-bills with more expensive debt.
Fed hikes haven’t worked. Progress on containing inflation has stalled and our economists don’t expect the Fed to cut rates until December. Investors are trained to chase the wrong assets after more than a decade of easy money and ample liquidity
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mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 9,851
This is a short term blip and the reason why so many investors lose their ***.
We have a strong economy. Jobs…jobs…jobs…made in America ..Inflation is still low, It is not runaway inflation. Talk of interest rate hikes are ridiculous. The Fed has signaled AI will spur tech growth long term.
I have not pulled the trigger. I would buy AAPL if it dipped below 160. They are transitioning to India and other countries more favorable than China. It definitely a $200-250 stock.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
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| 08:30 | USD | Continuing Jobless Claims(Apr 5) | 1.812M | - | - | 1.81M | ||||
| 08:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims(Apr 12) TRADE NOW | 212K | -0.56 | 215K | 212K | ||||
| 08:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Apr 12) | 214.5K | - | - | 214.5K | ||||
| 08:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Apr) TRADE NOW | 15.5 | 1.94 | 1.5 | 3.2 |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey explodes upward
Made in America
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mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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META up bigly
WHY?????
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Meta Platforms on Thursday released early versions of its latest large language model, Llama 3, and an image generator that updates pictures in real time while users type prompts, as it races to catch up to generative AI market leader OpenAI.
WHY?????
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Meta Platforms on Thursday released early versions of its latest large language model, Llama 3, and an image generator that updates pictures in real time while users type prompts, as it races to catch up to generative AI market leader OpenAI.
When the concern is inflation, this is actually bad news.
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Low oil and less spending
Iran disagrees with the Low Oil unless you mean our reserve is nearly empty.
Less spending- just the treasuries maturing over the next year will drive up spending due to the higher rates.
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mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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growth equals moderate inflation. We do not have runaway inflation. Our inflation rate is relatively low in the 3% range and below wage growth.
The slowing global economy will eventually slow our economy down. Consumers will stop buying products that are too expensive, driving those prices down.
A war in the mideast can change everything.
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Like food and energy?
Inflation in the latest round was
Car Insurance- required (can't stop buying)
Car repairs- lots of people need them
Housing- last I checked we are way under demand and higher rates are killing new supply, especially in Multi-family.
From the WSJ:
Stock portfolios at large pension funds had a blockbuster run. Now, managers are cashing out. Corporate pension funds are shifting money into bonds. State and local government funds are swapping stocks for alternative investments. The nation’s largest public pension, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, is planning to move close to $25 billion out of equities and into private equity and private debt, The WSJ reports. For pension funds, which target specific investment returns to fund future obligations, this is a welcome change: It means they can take less risk and stay on track toward those goals. They can sell stocks, lock in price gains and move the money into bonds without sacrificing too much return. Or they can continue to push for higher returns without taking on much more risk.
Stock portfolios at large pension funds had a blockbuster run. Now, managers are cashing out. Corporate pension funds are shifting money into bonds. State and local government funds are swapping stocks for alternative investments. The nation’s largest public pension, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, is planning to move close to $25 billion out of equities and into private equity and private debt, The WSJ reports. For pension funds, which target specific investment returns to fund future obligations, this is a welcome change: It means they can take less risk and stay on track toward those goals. They can sell stocks, lock in price gains and move the money into bonds without sacrificing too much return. Or they can continue to push for higher returns without taking on much more risk.