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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

TheEye said:
New York Fed says rent rates are going up? Locally? As in New York? That would make sense since the mass exodus during covid times.

Here in Florida I don't see any higher rent from a year ago. One of my landlord friends had to cut $50 a month per unit to find tenants.
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I was expecting the same issue in Richmond but I was crushed with interest on the last one I listed 10 days ago. That said our furnished homes are not performing to the point we could be removing the furniture on 1-2 and converting them to long terms again.


Market related:
Tesla could be a good buy soon.
1. Oil will go higher due to multiple factors (China, ME war)
2. I expect Congress to pass big tariffs on Chinese EVs.
3. Cutting 10% of their workforce should get profits higher.
4. I expect them to finally start mass producing the cyber truck and semi in the coming year.
5. It is nearing the 52w low of 152.

For the AI junkies, this is a company I believe can use AI for multiple things: cars, robotics, design, manufacturing
 
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When is everyone starting to jump ship? Or sell specs.

Have s&p and nasd approaching -3% over 5 days.

Thoughts?
 
Business Insider:
  • Jamie Dimon has raked in $183 million from his planned sale of 1 million JPMorgan shares.
  • JPMorgan's CEO sold stock worth $33 million on Monday, after selling a $150 million tranche in February.
  • Dimon's first disposals in 19 years were for diversification and tax planning, JPMorgan said.
 
Bird4um said:
When is everyone starting to jump ship? Or sell specs.

Have s&p and nasd approaching -3% over 5 days.

Thoughts?
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This is a short term blip and the reason why so many investors lose their ***.
We have a strong economy. Jobs…jobs…jobs…made in America ..Inflation is still low, It is not runaway inflation. Talk of interest rate hikes are ridiculous. The Fed has signaled that they are in no rush to lower rates. That is different than saying no rate cuts. AI will spur tech growth long term. Every growth cycle takes a pause.
 
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mr.h said:
This is a short term blip and the reason why so many investors lose their ***.
We have a strong economy. Jobs…jobs…jobs…made in America ..Inflation is still low, It is not runaway inflation. Talk of interest rate hikes are ridiculous. The Fed has signaled that they are in no rush to lower rates. That is different than saying no rate cuts. AI will spur tech growth long term. Every growth cycle takes a pause.
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So you buying now?
 
mr.h said:
This is a short term blip and the reason why so many investors lose their ***.
We have a strong economy. Jobs…jobs…jobs…made in America ..Inflation is still low, It is not runaway inflation. Talk of interest rate hikes are ridiculous. The Fed has signaled that they are in no rush to lower rates. That is different than saying no rate cuts. AI will spur tech growth long term. Every growth cycle takes a pause.
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Think there will be a war in middle east and gas takes off?
 
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There are positives to buying now if you are going to hold for years:
Public debt will drive up assets, stocks, inflation...
The FED will need to do QE at some point soon (maybe 2024, very likely no later than 2025). They are also likely to drop rates at some point, too.
AI will drive up productivity and down the COGS
Some companies will do just fine

There are negatives to buying now:
ME war is possible which would likely drive up oil prices
public debt could cause the bond market to fall apart which is bad for stocks
regional banks are close to failure due to MTM losses
Stagflation appears very likely with a wage/price spiral
Jobs growth is mostly government and healthcare jobs, not private sector
Public Debt to GDP has never been this high including in the 1940s
The inverted curve is past 600 days, the last ones over 500 days each caused 50-90% drops in stocks.
 
Excerpts from ML yesterday:

The economy that can’t stop; the Fed that won’t stop it

Each sector still seems impervious to Fed hikes: consumers are strong, corporates have$7tn in cash, and Congress can’t stop spending (see barometer update, Exhibit 3). Supercore inflation is surging; prices for essentials outpace wages (gas +49%; utilities +27%;food +21% - Exhibit 2). As the “2% world” of the past two decades reverts to the 5% norms of the 20th century, easy financial conditions fuel a bubble in “imprudent yield”

Government: The Fed can’t make Congress spend less. Government spending equals 44% of the economy, and the deficit at 6% of GDP has never been this wide outside of war or depression. Only 20% of the “Inflation Reduction Act” has been spent, and from now on, every Treasury auction causes US interest expense to rise as we replace cheap T-bills with more expensive debt.

Fed hikes haven’t worked. Progress on containing inflation has stalled and our economists don’t expect the Fed to cut rates until December. Investors are trained to chase the wrong assets after more than a decade of easy money and ample liquidity
 
Bird4um said:
When is everyone starting to jump ship? Or sell specs.

Have s&p and nasd approaching -3% over 5 days.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
This is a short term blip and the reason why so many investors lose their ***.
We have a strong economy. Jobs…jobs…jobs…made in America ..Inflation is still low, It is not runaway inflation. Talk of interest rate hikes are ridiculous. The Fed has signaled AI will spur tech growth long term.
SpikeUM said:
So you buying now?
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I have not pulled the trigger. I would buy AAPL if it dipped below 160. They are transitioning to India and other countries more favorable than China. It definitely a $200-250 stock.
 
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Apr 5)1.812M--1.81M
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Apr 12) TRADE NOW212K-0.56215K212K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Apr 12)214.5K--214.5K
08:30USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Apr) TRADE NOW15.51.941.53.2
Jobless claims stay even
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey explodes upward
Made in America
 
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META up bigly
WHY?????
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Meta Platforms on Thursday released early versions of its latest large language model, Llama 3, and an image generator that updates pictures in real time while users type prompts, as it races to catch up to generative AI market leader OpenAI.
 
mr.h said:
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Apr 5)1.812M--1.81M
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Apr 12) TRADE NOW212K-0.56215K212K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Apr 12)214.5K--214.5K
08:30USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Apr) TRADE NOW15.51.941.53.2
Jobless claims stay even
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey explodes upward
Made in America
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When the concern is inflation, this is actually bad news.
 
@mr.h - what will drive inflation down allowing for the FED to lower rates?
What is going to keep driving the market north if no rate cuts?
 
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90scane said:
@mr.h - what will drive inflation down allowing for the FED to lower rates?
What is going to keep driving the market north if no rate cuts?
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growth equals moderate inflation. We do not have runaway inflation. Our inflation rate is relatively low in the 3% range and below wage growth.
The slowing global economy will eventually slow our economy down. Consumers will stop buying products that are too expensive, driving those prices down.
A war in the mideast can change everything.
 
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mr.h said:
growth equals moderate inflation. We do not have runaway inflation. Our inflation rate is relatively low in the 3% range and below wage growth.
The slowing global economy will eventually slow our economy down. Consumers will stop buying products that are too expensive, driving those prices down.
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Like food and energy?
 
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