forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Advertisement
SIBCanes said:
Easiest bet Iranian sword rattling is going to create issues
Click to expand...

Yes you are correct, but I am more worried about medium term and longer term. Despite demand continuing to grow, the world has not been investing in oil exploration for quite a while now. We have been lucky that technology has improved that allowed us to get more oil out of existing sites, but at some point in the next 5-10 years, there is going to be huge supply issue, and I could make an argument for $150, $200 or even $250 a barrel oil. Remember too that we have not refilled the SPR.
 
This is part of the reason for today's mini bounceback, some pressure off of the long end

Fed Prepares to Slow Pace of Asset Runoff
It has let $60 billion in Treasurys mature each month but could lower that amount
The Wall Street Journal | 04/11/2024 | By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve officials neared agreement last month on a plan to slow the runoff of their $7.4 trillion in asset holdings, according to minutes of their meeting released Wednesday. At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to "run off" its balance sheet without buying new ones.
 
SpikeUM said:
Yes you are correct, but I am more worried about medium term and longer term. Despite demand continuing to grow, the world has not been investing in oil exploration for quite a while now. We have been lucky that technology has improved that allowed us to get more oil out of existing sites, but at some point in the next 5-10 years, there is going to be huge supply issue, and I could make an argument for $150, $200 or even $250 a barrel oil. Remember too that we have not refilled the SPR.
Click to expand...
You are correct on all points. We were lucky last year with a warm winter. This administration killing drilling and NG project. Is going to hurt supply. Oil and Gas is not going away demand will continue to increase over the coming years. This years election will effect my medium term thinking but 100 is a good first price point. If Biden wins 200 to 250 will be the next mark.
 
Advertisement
SIBCanes said:
You are correct on all points. We were lucky last year with a warm winter. This administration killing drilling and NG project. Is going to hurt supply. Oil and Gas is not going away demand will continue to increase over the coming years. This years election will effect my medium term thinking but 100 is a good first price point. If Biden wins 200 to 250 will be the next mark.
Click to expand...

My sense is that oil will go up regardless of who the next President is, simply because of the lack of investment. Having said that, the rise would likely be much sharper with a Biden presidency.
 
SpikeUM said:
Yes you are correct, but I am more worried about medium term and longer term. Despite demand continuing to grow, the world has not been investing in oil exploration for quite a while now. We have been lucky that technology has improved that allowed us to get more oil out of existing sites, but at some point in the next 5-10 years, there is going to be huge supply issue, and I could make an argument for $150, $200 or even $250 a barrel oil. Remember too that we have not refilled the SPR.
Click to expand...
Trump will drill like crazy I believe. He has to win though.
 
Bird4um said:
Trump will drill like crazy I believe. He has to win though.
Click to expand...

These projects literally take up to a decade, so Trump would reverse the trend, but the effect would not be immediate. BTW, I should point out that China has been in doldrums for a while, to the extent that they begin turning themselves around, it would provide even more pressure.
 
Advertisement
SpikeUM said:
My sense is that oil will go up regardless of who the next President is, simply because of the lack of investment. Having said that, the rise would likely be much sharper with a Biden presidency.
Click to expand...
‘EIA: Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.Mar 11, 2024.’
With that said there may be a flattering out in 2024, but with oil prices higher, I believe in capitalism.
 
mr.h said:
‘EIA: Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.Mar 11, 2024.’
With that said there may be a flattering out in 2024, but with oil prices higher, I believe in capitalism.
Click to expand...

Apples and oranges, I also wrote above:

Yes you are correct, but I am more worried about medium term and longer term. Despite demand continuing to grow, the world has not been investing in oil exploration for quite a while now. We have been lucky that technology has improved that allowed us to get more oil out of existing sites, but at some point in the next 5-10 years, there is going to be huge supply issue, and I could make an argument for $150, $200 or even $250 a barrel oil. Remember too that we have not refilled the SPR.
 
SpikeUM said:
My sense is that HOUSING will go up regardless of who the next President is, simply because of the lack of investment. Having said that, the rise would likely be much sharper with a Biden presidency.
Click to expand...

This is my thought as well. HA

What I'm currently seeing is the likely start of a long stretch of boomers passing away and leaving assets to kids who can't or don't want to retain the assets. I could see someone crush it on the national level for estate auctions.
 
90scane said:
This is my thought as well. HA

What I'm currently seeing is the likely start of a long stretch of boomers passing away and leaving assets to kids who can't or don't want to retain the assets. I could see someone crush it on the national level for estate auctions.
Click to expand...
Century Village condo prices to drop…..:LOL:
FED is just waiting for a reason to drop interest rates.
 
Advertisement
mr.h said:
Century Village condo prices to drop…..:LOL:
FED is just waiting for a reason to drop interest rates.
Click to expand...
They only have three reasons:

1. Banks Fail (I believe this is the most likely)
2. Unemployment jumps (+300k last month)
3. Inflation drops below 2% (3.5 or 3.8% last month)

Janet and Congress control the economy more than the FED at this point.

Retirement communities will be fine because humans are always aging so they will be purchased by Gen X retiring or younger Boomers looking.
 
Last edited:
90scane said:
They only have three reasons:

1. Banks Fail (I believe this is the most likely)
2. Unemployment jumps (+300k last month)
3. Inflation drops below 2% (3.5 or 3.8% last month)

Janet and Congress control the economy more than the FED at this point.

Retirement communities will be fine because humans are always aging so they will be purchased by Gen X retiring or younger Boomers looking.
Click to expand...

By far the most likely, because of office and commercial debt.

BUT as we have discussed, the big fear is stagflation, which no one wants to talk about because its so ugly, but the chances of that keep slowly but surely rising. A lot of the Congress approved spending hasnt even been spent.
 
Advertisement
Let's assume banks start failing. The FED will have to provide some means of relief. I'm not sure that will be rate drops out of the gate.
I'd expect: another BTFP
Then: end QT
Then: rate cuts
 
90scane said:
Let's assume banks start failing. The FED will have to provide some means of relief. I'm not sure that will be rate drops out of the gate.
I'd expect: another BTFP
Then: end QT
Then: rate cuts
Click to expand...
And I thought banks made more money with higher interest rates.
Who knew…
 
Advertisement
Back
Top