forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Advertisement
08:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Sep) **0.4% 2.040.3%0.6%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Sep) **3.7% 1.253.6%3.7%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Sep)310.66--309.66
08:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Sep) **0.3% 0.000.3%0.3%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Sep) **4.1% 0.004.1%4.3%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Sep)307.7894.04307.386307.026
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Sep 29)1.702M1.651.68M1.672M
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Oct 6)209K-0.13210K209K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Oct 6)206.25K--208.75K
The most important #’s are marked ***
CPI September Month over month down from last month
Year over Year equal from last month
CPI less food and energy (MOM) equal to last month’s
(YOY) down from last month
I don’t see a spike in CPI…
 
mr.h said:
08:30USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Sep) **0.4% 2.040.3%0.6%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Sep) **3.7% 1.253.6%3.7%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Sep)310.66--309.66
08:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Sep) **0.3% 0.000.3%0.3%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Sep) **4.1% 0.004.1%4.3%
08:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Sep)307.7894.04307.386307.026
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Sep 29)1.702M1.651.68M1.672M
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Oct 6)209K-0.13210K209K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Oct 6)206.25K--208.75K
The most important #’s are marked ***
CPI September Month over month down from last month
Year over Year equal from last month
CPI less food and energy (MOM) equal to last month’s
(YOY) down from last month
I don’t see a spike in CPI…
Click to expand...

Could you share this in Town Hall Inflation thread? Someone is off on these numbers.
 
90scane said:
Maybe they are just forcing congress to take corrective measures. Election year coming up so we know the pressure will grow a ton if the economy tanks.
Click to expand...
These measures will have to be used for election purposes. We can’t withhold paying our bills. Let Republicans and Democrats spell out what they want and let the voters decide. We are just one year away and nothing brought up will change the economy in the short term. The system is broken. No negotiations are going through.
 
mr.h said:
These measures will have to be used for election purposes. We can’t withhold paying our bills. Let Republicans and Democrats spell out what they want and let the voters decide. We are just one year away and nothing brought up will change the economy in the short term. The system is broken. No negotiations are going through.
Click to expand...

Interest rates and the stock market are about the future, and today's 30 year auction is sobering. So to the extent the government caps or reduces spending, stops debt forgiveness, does no new spending bills, etc., that would be a positive for both markets and would give the Fed cover to stop raising. You simply cant function with a rapidly growing $32 Trillion deficit.
 
Advertisement
Yahoo finance

September inflation report shows Fed can 'remain patient'​

“Thursday's inflation report came in slightly hotter than projected. But when removing volatile categories like food, energy, and shelter, economists see a downward trajectory, a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve which spent the days before the inflation reading indicating a bias against hiking interest rates in November”.
 
mr.h said:
Yahoo finance

September inflation report shows Fed can 'remain patient'​

“Thursday's inflation report came in slightly hotter than projected. But when removing volatile categories like food, energy, and shelter, economists see a downward trajectory, a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve which spent the days before the inflation reading indicating a bias against hiking interest rates in November”.
Click to expand...

Step back and follow the logic, not the politics or the PR. Taking food, energy and shelter out of the monthly numbers smooths out the monthly number, BUT at the end of the day, those are the three biggest expenses of almost all households. So when month after month they are higher than the "Core", we still have a big inflation problem.
 
Advertisement
SpikeUM said:
Step back and follow the logic, not the politics or the PR. Taking food, energy and shelter out of the monthly numbers smooths out the monthly number, BUT at the end of the day, those are the three biggest expenses of almost all households. So when month after month they are higher than the "Core", we still have a big inflation problem.
Click to expand...
Yes, but it’s listed that way to eliminate the extreme volatility, beyond our control, due to extreme fluctuations in the short time, not giving an accurate reading. That is why it is calculated using both methods.
If you look at CPI month over month and year over year they are equal or better than the last posting, even if one was fractionally higher than expectations. I believe food prices will drop as people are buying the less expensive alternatives. Most retail stores, including Amazon, are seeing high end purchases dropping and lower end purchases rising…[supply and demand].
JMO as there were mixed reactions of yesterdays numbers.
 
mr.h said:
Yes, but it’s listed that way to eliminate the extreme volatility, beyond our control, due to extreme fluctuations in the short time, not giving an accurate reading. That is why it is calculated using both methods.
If you look at CPI month over month and year over year they are equal or better than the last posting, even if one was fractionally higher than expectations. I believe food prices will drop as people are buying the less expensive alternatives. Most retail stores, including Amazon, are seeing high end purchases dropping and lower end purchases rising…[supply and demand].
JMO as there were mixed reactions of yesterdays numbers.
Click to expand...
That is a bunch of BS right there.
 
561caneforever said:
That is a bunch of BS right there.
Click to expand...
Today bank earnings beat. Earnings are strong, jobs are plentiful and I believe the Fed will give up on their 2% fairy tale.
We’ve lived through higher interest before and grew substantially.
The rates that the Fed kept artificially low was the anomaly and caused inflation.
 
mr.h said:
The rates that the Fed kept artificially low was the anomaly and caused inflation.
Click to expand...

Creating trillions in dollars via QE (buying bonds) along with the government adding trillions to the deficit of non-existent money caused inflation. The rates don't cause an increase or decrease in the monetary supply and thus don't cause inflation.

Rates being low just means X person can borrow Y funds from a lender at the cost of said rates. The Y funds come from deposits at banks (consumers/companies OR the FED QE). When the government hands out a ton of funds to citizens, those either get spent or deposited. If deposited, they get converted into funds for loans thus creating new money and higher inflation.

Since we created TRILLIONS, it will take a long time to slowly inflate our way back to 2019 debt to GDP. Not even going to dream of getting back to the 1960s. The FED for its part is selling off 80-100B of bonds every month. This is truly KILLING monetary supply (well until they do more QE) thus forcing the economy to contract by 1-2T/yr. Congress & the President for their part are giving away more funds even with a HOT economy.

What we don't want to see is more MBS purchasing by the FED and more deficit spending by the governments while having sound budgets over the next 5-10 years. We also need inflation to devalue the USD at around 3-5% annually for 10 years. Thus, $32T (if they stopped spending and just balanced) would look more like $15-20T after the dollar's value decreased via inflation.

We hopefully continue to grow GDP via automation, controlled population growth via immigration, and steady growth of workforce participation.
 
Back
Top