Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Sep) TRADE NOW0.2% -0.980.3% 0.2%
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Sep) TRADE NOW4.2% -0.684.3% 4.3%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Sep) 34.40.0034.434.4
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Sep) 62.8% --62.8%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Sep) TRADE NOW336K2.66170K227K
08:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Sep) 7% --7.1%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Sep) TRADE NOW3.8% 0.623.7% 3.8%
Non farm payrolls jumps to 336K
Hourly earnings down fractionally
good news = bad news..
 
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08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Sep) TRADE NOW0.2% -0.980.3%0.2%
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Sep) TRADE NOW4.2% -0.684.3%4.3%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Sep)34.40.0034.434.4
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Sep)62.8% --62.8%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Sep) TRADE NOW336K2.66170K227K
08:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Sep)7% --7.1%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Sep) TRADE NOW3.8% 0.623.7%3.8%
Non farm payrolls jumps to 336K
Hourly earnings down fractionally
good news = bad news..

Its not bad, its atrocious and concerning, am surprised the market hasnt cratered. Its unadvisable to react to one or two numbers, but the overall picture is increasingly stagflation and a hard landing.
 
Its not bad, its atrocious and concerning, am surprised the market hasnt cratered. Its unadvisable to react to one or two numbers, but the overall picture is increasingly stagflation and a hard landing.
Even the previous numbers were revised up.
The economy is very strong and I’m expecting the market to finish the year up.
Oil is finally going down. It looks like the market had to digest the numbers
 
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Even the previous numbers were revised up.
The economy is very strong and I’m expecting the market to finish the year up.
Oil is finally going down. It looks like the market had to digest the numbers
No, it's the Fed coming in and buying more debt. The Fed and other Central Banks have created the biggest asset bubbles in the history of mankind.
 
No, it's the Fed coming in and buying more debt. The Fed and other Central Banks have created the biggest asset bubbles in the history of mankind.
Covid hurt our economy a lot and spending was the way to jump start the economy.
I will probably get negged for saying this, but we need immigration to fill lower paying jobs. They will pay taxes and some will start businesses. Taxes are going to increase when the Trump tax cuts run out. To me the fairest way to raise taxes is a National Sales Tax. We need to raise the age of Social Security and have the wealthier pay in more.
We need both parties to come together and have a balanced budget/deficit reduction bill and an immigration bill.
 
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Covid hurt our economy a lot and spending was the way to jump start the economy.
I will probably get negged for saying this, but we need immigration to fill lower paying jobs. They will pay taxes and some will start businesses. Taxes are going to increase when the Trump tax cuts run out. To me the fairest way to raise taxes is a National Sales Tax. We need to raise the age of Social Security and have the wealthier pay in more.
We need both parties to come together and have a balanced budget/deficit reduction bill and an immigration bill.
Flat tax. too many cheats
 
Flat tax. too many cheats
The only way to cheat on a sales tax is if you buy and sell with cash. Cash businesses are usually audited. Credit card
fees are way too high. I just believe we can bring in more taxes with a sales tax.
Retail has been strong and there will be seasonal hiring. Hopefully the Fed knows that.
 
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The only way to cheat on a sales tax is if you buy and sell with cash. Cash businesses are usually audited. Credit card
fees are way too high. I just believe we can bring in more taxes with a sales tax.
Retail has been strong and there will be seasonal hiring. Hopefully the Fed knows that.

no new taxes until term limits
 
Covid hurt our economy a lot and spending was the way to jump start the economy.
I will probably get negged for saying this, but we need immigration to fill lower paying jobs. They will pay taxes and some will start businesses. Taxes are going to increase when the Trump tax cuts run out. To me the fairest way to raise taxes is a National Sales Tax. We need to raise the age of Social Security and have the wealthier pay in more.
We need both parties to come together and have a balanced budget/deficit reduction bill and an immigration bill.

Covid didn’t hurt our economy. Our response to Covid hurt our economy and the stimulus made it even worse because we spent way too much even under Trump.

Immigration has always been needed because our reproduction rate is only 1.1 and a growing economy needs it to be 1.2 plus. That said, AI and robots could kill this argument as GDP could jump significantly when major jobs can be handled by automation. Democrats like immigration because the majority of immigrants vote Democrat because they come from socialist countries.

High taxes won’t stop the government from over spending. Heck, it took a Republican Congress with a Democrat President to get higher taxes and lower spending in the late 90s for the 1-2 years of deficit reduction. If the government can do that for 4-5 years, I would be ok to see marginally high taxes.

As for SS, 100% needs higher ages.
As for wealth paying more, I don’t see the logic of why there is an upper end cap on SS. I guess wealthy don’t use SS benefits or only get so much so they see a drop off in the benefit of trying to get SS funds above $160k. With inflation running hot, I have a feeling a larger percentage of people now make more than $160k. I don’t consider them wealthy by the way. Wealth isn’t income, it is assets. A large percentage of the same people making >$160k per year aren’t wealthy and live paycheck to paycheck.

While many people are pointing figures at the government for over spending, we the people have a large amount of blame. Government and the FED are handcuffed because so many people over spend leaving them unable to withstand recessions because they live paycheck to paycheck. When I use to have 4 rentals in my 20s, I was blown away at how many tenants had nicer cars, full cable TV packages for nfl, nba, mlb… bigger TVs than me, etc. I made a lot of money but controlled my spending knowing long term I would be wealthy with assets to live off of. The average American is financially illiterate and just hopes the 401k will save then if social security isn’t enough. Government for its part (controls public education) pushes the narrative of working to 65 at a good paying job to retire and spend 10-15 years enjoying the golden years. What I figured out early: people that solve problems (increasing productivity) and own assets become wealthy. Very few others make it from average job to wealthy.
 
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Covid didn’t hurt our economy. Our response to Covid hurt our economy and the stimulus made it even worse because we spent way too much even under Trump.

Immigration has always been needed because our reproduction rate is only 1.1 and a growing economy needs it to be 1.2 plus. That said, AI and robots could kill this argument as GDP could jump significantly when major jobs can be handled by automation. Democrats like immigration because the majority of immigrants vote Democrat because they come from socialist countries.

High taxes won’t stop the government from over spending. Heck, it took a Republican Congress with a Democrat President to get higher taxes and lower spending in the late 90s for the 1-2 years of deficit reduction. If the government can do that for 4-5 years, I would be ok to see marginally high taxes.

As for SS, 100% needs higher ages.
As for wealth paying more, I don’t see the logic of why there is an upper end cap on SS. I guess wealthy don’t use SS benefits or only get so much so they see a drop off in the benefit of trying to get SS funds above $160k. With inflation running hot, I have a feeling a larger percentage of people now make more than $160k. I don’t consider them wealthy by the way. Wealth isn’t income, it is assets. A large percentage of the same people making >$160k per year aren’t wealthy and live paycheck to paycheck.

While many people are pointing figures at the government for over spending, we the people have a large amount of blame. Government and the FED are handcuffed because so many people over spend leaving them unable to withstand recessions because they live paycheck to paycheck. When I use to have 4 rentals in my 20s, I was blown away at how many tenants had nicer cars, full cable TV packages for nfl, nba, mlb… bigger TVs than me, etc. I made a lot of money but controlled my spending knowing long term I would be wealthy with assets to live off of. The average American is financially illiterate and just hopes the 401k will save then if social security isn’t enough. Government for its part (controls public education) pushes the narrative of working to 65 at a good paying job to retire and spend 10-15 years enjoying the golden years. What I figured out early: people that solve problems (increasing productivity) and own assets become wealthy. Very few others make it from average job to wealthy.
Yes, Bill Clinton was one of the best Conservative presidents we've had.

Digress on national sales tax, that's going to wack the working poor disproportionally. Also, grandfather the early retirement age as is and leave it as a choice to early out.
 
CPI Aand PMI this week. I believe inflation did not rise, ex energy.
unfortunately global events brings fear and uncertainty.
 
I have posted this before in the Tax thread but if our deficit is $32 Trillion and rapidly growing, we couldnt tax our way to a balanced budget, even if you expropriated the wealth of all billionaires. So sure, you can tweak here and there, but bottom line we simply have to cut spending, by a lot.

As of November 2022, a combined value of 4.48 trillion U.S. dollars was held by billionaires living in the United States. While U.S. billionaire wealth has seen a drop over the last year, it is still more than 1.5 times the amount it was at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.May 2, 2023

 
I have posted this before in the Tax thread but if our deficit is $32 Trillion and rapidly growing, we couldnt tax our way to a balanced budget, even if you expropriated the wealth of all billionaires. So sure, you can tweak here and there, but bottom line we simply have to cut spending, by a lot.

As of November 2022, a combined value of 4.48 trillion U.S. dollars was held by billionaires living in the United States. While U.S. billionaire wealth has seen a drop over the last year, it is still more than 1.5 times the amount it was at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.May 2, 2023


We all know what has to happen for us to manage this $32T deficit but no one likes it. Inflation for an extended period of time while decreasing government spending, increasing GDP, and maybe some additional taxes.

Thus
1. We cut rates so it doesn't impact the cost of the debt while causing higher inflation. Not saying go back to 0 but likely 3-4 pts.
2. The lower rates will likely increase GDP as companies can get funding but this will mean people get paid more, too.
3. Higher incomes normally mean higher tax bills so I don't believe we have to jump rates too much higher.

The downside risks
The USD could lose global reserve status
We have to become fully energy independent or losing that global reserve status would kill us.
The single biggest risk: the people who overspent on the Hill are still there and could see the extra revenue as a source for additional spending.
 
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We all know what has to happen for us to manage this $32T deficit but no one likes it. Inflation for an extended period of time while decreasing government spending, increasing GDP, and maybe some additional taxes.

Thus
1. We cut rates so it doesn't impact the cost of the debt while causing higher inflation. Not saying go back to 0 but likely 3-4 pts.
2. The lower rates will likely increase GDP as companies can get funding but this will mean people get paid more, too.
3. Higher incomes normally mean higher tax bills so I don't believe we have to jump rates too much higher.

The downside risks
The USD could lose global reserve status
We have to become fully energy independent or losing that global reserve status would kill us.
The single biggest risk: the people who overspent on the Hill are still there and could see the extra revenue as a source for additional spending.
Clap Reaction GIF

we will start cutting rates in 2024 and yes, we need to cut expenditures and raise revenue.
 
I'm not going to hold my breathe. I expect more of the same until the WELL is fully run dry.
CNBC talking heads were expecting oil to drop into the 60…,but then Hamas struck. The Fed talk has been dovish.
 
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08:30
USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Sep)0.5% 0.560.4%0.7%
08:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Sep)2.2% 2.091.6%2%
08:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Sep) *0.3% 1.580.2%0.2%
08:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Sep)2.7% 3.922.3%2.5%
Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing.

*inflation still elevated.
 
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