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Barrons: Rate cuts by 2nd quarter of 24..
Goldman Sachs says its baseline forecast calls for the Federal Open Market Committee to start cutting the fed funds rate in the second quarter of 2024. The economists say they are penciling in 25 basis points of cuts per quarter but are uncertain about the pace. (One basis point equals 1/100th of a percentage point.)2 hours
:75ebf9ecd:
I hope it’s not because of a recession doe..
 
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mr.h said:
Barrons: Rate cuts by 2nd quarter of 24..
Goldman Sachs says its baseline forecast calls for the Federal Open Market Committee to start cutting the fed funds rate in the second quarter of 2024. The economists say they are penciling in 25 basis points of cuts per quarter but are uncertain about the pace. (One basis point equals 1/100th of a percentage point.)2 hours
:75ebf9ecd:
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I doubt that very much.
 
Chinese deflation may/will allow the Fed to stop raising, but our economic data is still fairly strong and the government continues non stop spending, so as of today, I dont see a rate cut for the foreseeable future.
 
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SpikeUM said:
They have access to a lot more info than we do, but from the outside looking in, the second largest economy in the world is rapidly and sharply deflating, and our banks have YUGE MTM losses, so a good guess is that they stop raising, because that eases the pressure on bank loans.
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GINA ?
 
07:00USDMBA Mortgage Applications(Aug 11)-0.8% ---3.1%
08:15CADHousing Starts s.a (YoY)(Jul)255K0.42240K283.5K
08:30USDBuilding Permits (MoM)(Jul)1.442M-0.061.463M1.441M
08:30USDBuilding Permits Change(Jul)0.1% 0.20-1.7%-3.7%
08:30USDHousing Starts (MoM)(Jul)1.452M-1.448M1.398M
08:30USDHousing Starts Change(Jul)3.9% -2.7%-11.7%
housing numbers are up.
 
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From this pm's WSJ:

The Federal Reserve's mission is starting to get a bit more confusing.

Central bank officials are facing a puzzle of sorts as inflation slows, but economic activity is firmer than anticipated. Most Fed officials backed an increase in interest rates last month but some saw rising risks that they might raise rates too high.

Underscoring this new high rate environment, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose for a fifth straight session to 4.258%, its highest end-of-day level since June 2008. Readers might remember what happened in the economy after that.

Also Wednesday, the Dow dropped 0.5%, or 181 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and Nasdaq declined 1.2%.
 
Yahoo news..8/16
Atlanta Fed projects nearly 6% growth for 3rd quarter.

Eight months after 2023 kicked off with widespread recession calls across Wall Street, the Atlanta Fed is projecting the economy will grow nearly 6% in the third quarter.

On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate moved up to 5.8% from 5.0% a day prior after fresh data from the Census Bureau's showed housing starts increased 3.9%. in June. If the 5.8% GDP growth number held, it'd mark the most robust period of economic growth since the fourth quarter of 2021.

The higher projection from the Atlanta Fed is the latest piece of data pointing to a stronger than expected US economy. On Tuesday, July's retail sales report revealed sales increased 0.7% in the month with the control group, which contributes directly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rising 1.0%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected just a 0.5% increase for the control group.

The upbeat print on the consumer came after recent jobs data showed the economy is still adding jobs while unemployment remains historically low and monthly wage growth has begun to outpace inflation, providing a potential boost for further consumer spending.

Bidenomics baby.
 
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08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Aug 4)1.716M0.541.7M1.684M
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Aug 11)239K-0.08240K250K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Aug 11)234.25K--231.5K
08:30USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Aug)122.94-10-13.5
Manufacturing up
Jobless claims are about what was expected.
Leading index as expected.
Philadelphia Fed index [manufacturing] up..First time since 2022.
The economy, in general, is getting stronger Imo.
PS..Walmart numbers beat.
 
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mr.h said:
Yahoo news..8/16
Atlanta Fed projects nearly 6% growth for 3rd quarter.

Eight months after 2023 kicked off with widespread recession calls across Wall Street, the Atlanta Fed is projecting the economy will grow nearly 6% in the third quarter.

On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate moved up to 5.8% from 5.0% a day prior after fresh data from the Census Bureau's showed housing starts increased 3.9%. in June. If the 5.8% GDP growth number held, it'd mark the most robust period of economic growth since the fourth quarter of 2021.

The higher projection from the Atlanta Fed is the latest piece of data pointing to a stronger than expected US economy. On Tuesday, July's retail sales report revealed sales increased 0.7% in the month with the control group, which contributes directly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rising 1.0%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected just a 0.5% increase for the control group.

The upbeat print on the consumer came after recent jobs data showed the economy is still adding jobs while unemployment remains historically low and monthly wage growth has begun to outpace inflation, providing a potential boost for further consumer spending.

Bidenomics baby.
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What all of the deficit spending is doing is putting more gas on a big fire. If the GDP is really that high, the Fed will continue raising
 
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That old saying about you dont fight the Fed, I did not understand the sharpness of this years rally, I wonder how much of it we give back now. August, September and October are historically the worst three months.

www.wsj.com

Treasury Yields Hit New Highs

S&P 500 falls a third day, extending an August stock slide.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
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Gina hurting the market, especially tech..EOM economic indicators should put us back up….hopefully
 
Two warnings before you watch; have a stiff drink available and remember that Rosenberg is very conservative and often more bearish than others. Having said the latter, he still is very good.

 
SpikeUM said:
Two warnings before you watch; have a stiff drink available and remember that Rosenberg is very conservative and often more bearish than others. Having said the latter, he still is very good.

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That didn’t even need a white claw….
 
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