Dont know, I will ask around
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- Thread starter Bird4um
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Dont know, I will ask around
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Pimco next?
www.reuters.com
PIMCO lost $340 mln with Credit Suisse AT1 bonds write-off - source
Bond giant PIMCO lost about $340 million on a category of Credit Suisse bonds that were wiped out by the takeover by UBS , with the American investment manager's overall exposure to the Swiss lender running into billions, a source familiar with the situation said.
www.reuters.com
Sounds like Barron could be off based on the above European Banker's opinion and chart.
Could be, but the Swiss government made a decision to favor equity holders over fixed income holders, thats a really bad precedent. If I am a corporate treasurer, I am not going to take the risk of owning similar bonds.
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Didn't we have similar issues with the bailout of the auto companies in 2009? I know there were issues with pensions, especially between hourly and salary.
My thought since this whole thing started was that FR was a goner, and thats increasingly looking as if its true.
www.reuters.com
First Republic rescue may rely on US backing to facilitate deal - Bloomberg News
Wall Street CEOs and U.S. officials discussing an intervention at First Republic Bank are exploring the possibility of government backing to encourage a deal, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the situation.
www.reuters.com
The next shoe to drop?
In a recent paper, a group of economists including Mr. Piskorski estimated that the value of loans and securities held by banks is around $2.2 trillion lower than the book value on their balance sheets.
www.wsj.com
In a recent paper, a group of economists including Mr. Piskorski estimated that the value of loans and securities held by banks is around $2.2 trillion lower than the book value on their balance sheets.
Commercial Property Debt Creates More Bank Worries
Regulators and analysts are growing concerned about loans backed by office buildings, as many skyscrapers and other office properties have lost value during the pandemic era.
www.wsj.com
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I said it last week. The cmbs held by banks are underwater. This is mainly due to office buildings being vacant that once use to be hard to find. When those ARM come up, defaults will start to pile up much like the Blackstone one for 500b. I highly doubt it is only 2.2T when factoring in vacancies.The next shoe to drop?
In a recent paper, a group of economists including Mr. Piskorski estimated that the value of loans and securities held by banks is around $2.2 trillion lower than the book value on their balance sheets.
Commercial Property Debt Creates More Bank Worries
Regulators and analysts are growing concerned about loans backed by office buildings, as many skyscrapers and other office properties have lost value during the pandemic era.
One of the bigger issues with banking in my opinion: I can do almost everything in my brokerage account I can do in my checking account plus invest funds. My banks don't offer me anything special now (no better terms on loans or CCs, still 0% return on deposits) and I have to pay fees for things I get for free from my brokerage account.
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I've used credit unions my entire life. I couldn't understand how anyone could justify using a bank.
My property management company uses a large bank for rent. Tenants anywhere can drive 1-2 miles to deposit rent if they don't want to use the online portal. That is the ONE benefit of a large bank.
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I had a regular bank for my business because credit unions are generally averse to corporate accounts.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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The only way I see that happening is if earnings collapse. The market is a forward indicator and is anticipating an end of rate hikes, energy and banks stabilizing, with a continuation of a strong labor market.
speaking of reserves. Our oil supplies are rising and the price of oil is dropping.
Sorry, please continue.
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The only way? As if tightening credit has no impact? What happens when defaults start piling up? What about the inverted curve?
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The last few times we saw a huge drop (~$30) was 2020. Before that was 2018, 2014, and 2008. 2018 and 2014 were because of Trump's China tariffs and lifting sanctions on Iran, and 2014 was the increase in shale production.
2008 and 2020. Let's hope it's not like that.
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
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That’s a great reason not to raise rates…
25 with a pause coming or cut coming will still propel the markets.
Powell saying the bank situation is being handled and he will continue raising, is our worse case scenario.
You can't hope/pray for your outcome. Banks are tightening credit standards across the board (Large to small commercial and individuals). The FED is already doing QE to slow down the tightening to keep banks from failing BUT the FED wants the markets to cool off to reduce inflation. We aren't talking about deflation but simply cooling off the market enough to limit the ongoing inflation. Thus, he is going to raise rates and do back-door QE for the banks.