Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[mr.h]

USDNonfarm Payrolls(Nov) 263K0.64200K284K…down from 284,000, but a big estimate beat.

USD

Unemployment Rate(Nov)

3.7%

0

3.7%

3.7%

wow…considering this years rate hikes.
service sector flying, but good news is bad news.

we are still in underemployment territory.

 

[hotshot]

"Confounding economy" per Washington Post:
-------------------------------------------------------
The U.S. labor market grew again in November with employers adding 263,000 jobs, a surprisingly robust pace amid a slow down in the tech industry.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained unchanged from 3.7 percent a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The still-strong labor market continues to be one of the sturdiest pillars of an otherwise confounding economy. Americans are spending heavily, though they are saving less than they have in 15 years.

Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in more than two years. And although inflation is slowing, to 7.7 percent, it is still well over the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Galaxy to Acquire Leading Custody Platform GK8

Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd . (TSX: GLXY) ("Galaxy" or "the Company"), a financial services and investment management innovator in the digital asset, cryptocurrency , and blockchain technology sectors, today announced it intends to acquire GK8, a secure institutional digital asset self-custody...

investor.galaxy.com

Objectively strong power move. The most in demand tech in blockchain and they're scooping up a major player for pennies.

 

[TheEye]

Bumper bowling. People have money but prices are up. Strong profits but interest rates are pushing in opposition. Instead of buying crap, people need to take advantage of these high short term bond rates or paying down debt.

 

[SpikeUM]

Bumper bowling. People have money but prices are up. Strong profits but interest rates are pushing in opposition. Instead of buying crap, people need to take advantage of these high short term bond rates or paying down debt.

But since most of the population is financially illiterate.........

 

[SpikeUM]

The big question now is do we still get the "Santa Claus" rally? The 1H of '23 is possibly to likely going to be brutal.

 

[90scane]

Bumper bowling. People have money but prices are up. Strong profits but interest rates are pushing in opposition. Instead of buying crap, people need to take advantage of these high short term bond rates or paying down debt.

I've been hyper-focused on paying down debt. Most of it wasn't "bad" debt but I still wanted to get my own house(s) in order just in case we have a bad recession.

With bond yields dropping, we could see mortgage rates continue south which would heat up the real estate market enough to prevent a complete meltdown in that sector. The spread also has to come back down from 2.9 to 1.7.

 

[GladeCane]

The big question now is do we still get the "Santa Claus" rally? The 1H of '23 is possibly to likely going to be brutal.

Trillions of dollars looking to be bullish.

 

[mr.h]

The big question now is do we still get the "Santa Claus" rally? The 1H of '23 is possibly to likely going to be brutal.

I think we see a Santa rally because consumers have money. With low unemployment, it’s possible that credit card debt is not growing like we think. A figure we didn’t discuss or see is part-time employment A lot of people, for whatever reason, are not fully employed, but work part-time. That could be where the extra spending money is coming from. A lot of people can pick up bucks while staying home too.

 

[SpikeUM]

I think we see a Santa rally because consumers have money. With low unemployment, it’s possible that credit card debt is not growing like we think. A figure we didn’t discuss or see is part-time employment A lot of people, for whatever reason, are not fully employed, but work part-time. That could be where the extra spending money is coming from. A lot of people can pick up bucks while staying home too.

It wouldnt surprise me, but I still see dark clouds early next year.

 

[mr.h]

It wouldnt surprise me, but I still see dark clouds early next year.

Leisure and hospitality led the way and I think it’s seasonal, but healthcare had a big uptick because imo we are seeing rehiring from Covid shutdown. I don’t see as many rate hikes in 2023 because of how much we hiked this year. Also , next year, we will see the results of the Trillion dollar bipartisan infrastructure spending, bill which will need workers And take years.

 

[mr.h]

Nice little recovery today after a bad start. We never gave back the big news from the Fed.

 

[TheEye]

The big question now is do we still get the "Santa Claus" rally? The 1H of '23 is possibly to likely going to be brutal.

Rallys will be tempered by interest rate hikes. I see a plateau of the economy despite low unemployment and high profits. Won't see a crash and won't see a bullish rally either.

 

[SpikeUM]

Rallys will be tempered by interest rate hikes. I see a plateau of the economy despite low unemployment and high profits. Won't see a crash and won't see a bullish rally either.

I hope you are right, but most major research outfits are calling for a sharp drop in 1H.

 

[TheEye]

I hope you are right, but most major research outfits are calling for a sharp drop in 1H.

Rapid drops look to have rapid rebounds.

 

[mr.h]

Today is factory orders and business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector.

 

[mr.h]

Today is factory orders and business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector.

We mostly beat..stocks are priced right. Soft recession = soft landing. Inflation is still easing.oil drops, tech crushed.

next big economic indicators are December 13-14..

 

[mr.h]

Bloomberg- Recession can be avoided.

(Bloomberg) -- Professional investors are loading up on bets that an economic recession can be avoided despite all the warnings to the contrary. It’s a dangerous bet -- for a variety of reasons.

Money managers have been favoring economically sensitive equities, such as industrial companies and commodity producers, according to a study from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on positioning by mutual funds and hedge funds with assets totaling almost $5 trillion. Shares that tend to do well during economic downturns, like utilities and consumer staples, are currently out of favor, the analysis shows.

The positions amount to wagers that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without creating a recession, a difficult-to-achieve scenario often referred to as an economic soft landing. The precariousness of such bets was on display Friday and Monday, when strong readings on the labor market and American services sectors drove speculation the Fed will have to maintain its aggressive policies, increasing the risks of a policy error.

“Current sector tilts are consistent with positioning for a soft landing,” Goldman strategists including David Kostin wrote in a note Friday, adding that the fund industry’s thematic and factor exposures point to a similar stance.

 

[SpikeUM]

Bloomberg- Recession can be avoided.

(Bloomberg) -- Professional investors are loading up on bets that an economic recession can be avoided despite all the warnings to the contrary. It’s a dangerous bet -- for a variety of reasons.

Money managers have been favoring economically sensitive equities, such as industrial companies and commodity producers, according to a study from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on positioning by mutual funds and hedge funds with assets totaling almost $5 trillion. Shares that tend to do well during economic downturns, like utilities and consumer staples, are currently out of favor, the analysis shows.

The positions amount to wagers that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without creating a recession, a difficult-to-achieve scenario often referred to as an economic soft landing. The precariousness of such bets was on display Friday and Monday, when strong readings on the labor market and American services sectors drove speculation the Fed will have to maintain its aggressive policies, increasing the risks of a policy error.

“Current sector tilts are consistent with positioning for a soft landing,” Goldman strategists including David Kostin wrote in a note Friday, adding that the fund industry’s thematic and factor exposures point to a similar stance.

Explain to me how we dont have a hard landing/recession with:

The Fed raising rates to at least 5%, and possibly higher to much higher
While at the same time, doing QT
and with the Federal government spending recklessly (at least $2 trillion in bills passed that havent been spent) which forces the Fed to keep hiking

 

[SpikeUM]

Today's Barrons:

Markets are getting restless, they want to get to the bottom. But as long as the data point to a resilient U.S. economy that won’t happen.

Services sector activity unexpectedly picked up in November, data showed Monday. With Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report still on investors’ minds, it was enough to spark a selloff over fears the Federal Reserve will need to be more aggressive with rate hikes.

Investors are waiting for the cumulative impact of the Fed’s hiking to hit the economy and therefore to signal a pivot on the horizon.

The Fed’s expected rate hike slowdown next week doesn’t appear to be under threat—traders are still pricing in a 0.5 percentage point hike at December’s Fed meeting, with a 20% chance of another supersize 0.75 percentage point increase. That’s a high probability given that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled he’s ready to slow down.

The central bank will also want to avoid overtightening, especially given the lag of its hikes hitting the real economy.

However, recent robust data do have implications for the Fed’s longer-term stance. Powell was keen to stress the likelihood of a higher terminal rate than previously expected last month. A resilient economy certainly points to higher rates for longer.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates again Tuesday and warned more hikes were to come. Governor Philip Lowe said the path to a soft landing was a narrow one. Yet Powell sees a soft landing as “very plausible” for the U.S. economy.

For the foreseeable future, good news for the economy will be bad news for markets.