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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Its been easy to be bearish up until November, when seasonality usually kicks in. OTOH, from Barron's today:

The most frightening thing is perhaps that there’s plenty of room for stocks to fall further. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in an Oct. 25 note that markets haven’t actually priced in a U.S. recession. That means that shares could take another sizeable leg down if the economy doesn’t achieve a soft landing.
 
Empirical Cane said:
I disagree to some of your points. If an investor takes a long-term view (5+ years), there are many great companies with stock prices in deep discount territory.

With that said, if someone has less than a 5 year outlook, buyer beware--have lots of antacid ready.
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My god we agree….
tomorrow we see jobs, durable goods, GDP..
good numbers are bad, bad numbers are good..lol
I believe we can still have a decent economy and lower inflation.
 
Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. So much, in fact, that spot prices briefly went negative earlier this week.


For months, officials have warned of an energy crisis this winter as Russia - once the region's biggest supplier of natural gas - slashed supplies in retaliation for sanctions Europe imposed over its invasion of Ukraine.

Now, EU gas storage facilities are close to full, tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) are lining up at ports, unable to unload their cargoes, and prices are tumbling.
cnn
 
12:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Oct 14) 1.438M1.271.388M1.383M12:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q3) PREL --4.5% 4.7% 12:30USDDurable Goods Orders(Sep)

0.4% -0.200.6% 0.2% 12:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(Sep) 1.4% 1.590% -0.9% 12:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Sep) -0.5% -3.120.2% 0.3% 12:30USDGross Domestic Product Annualized(Q3) PREL 2.6% 0.352.4% -0.6% 12:30USDGross Domestic Product Price Index(Q3) PREL 4.1% -3.685.3% 9.1% 12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Oct 21) 217K-0.21220K214K12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Oct 21) 219K--212.25K12:30USDNondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Sep) -0.7% -2.770.5% 1.4% 12:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q3) PREL --7.9% 7.3%

GDP up
Jobless claims lower than expected
Durable goods orders still strong
personal expenditures Down
*Possible soft landing*
if we get lower rate increases after this months 75 and we go to 50 in December the market will rise.
 
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mr.h said:
12:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Oct 14) 1.438M1.271.388M1.383M12:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q3) PREL --4.5% 4.7% 12:30USDDurable Goods Orders(Sep)

0.4% -0.200.6% 0.2% 12:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(Sep) 1.4% 1.590% -0.9% 12:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Sep) -0.5% -3.120.2% 0.3% 12:30USDGross Domestic Product Annualized(Q3) PREL 2.6% 0.352.4% -0.6% 12:30USDGross Domestic Product Price Index(Q3) PREL 4.1% -3.685.3% 9.1% 12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Oct 21) 217K-0.21220K214K12:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Oct 21) 219K--212.25K12:30USDNondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Sep) -0.7% -2.770.5% 1.4% 12:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q3) PREL --7.9% 7.3%

GDP up
Jobless claims lower than expected
Durable goods orders still strong
personal expenditures Down
*Possible soft landing*
if we get lower rate increases after this months 75 and we go to 50 in December the market will rise.
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Why would the Fed stop raising though?
 
The SEC is working hard to destroy American companies. There are numerous companies that need capital and would like to go public, but its such a pain that they dont. So what practically happens is that wealthy individuals fund these private companies, and make a lot of money, profit that would have otherwise gone to public shareholders.

www.wsj.com

Accounting Errors to Cost Executives Their Bonuses Under SEC Rule

Commissioners voted to approve requirements that companies claw back incentive pay from executives if errors are identified in past financial statements.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
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SpikeUM said:
Correct, but why would they even do that? You may be right, but GDP is still strong, oil is back at 90, etc etc.
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Because at 50 or less, they can still get to the same place and it will be built into the market. thusly, we have a better chance for a softer landing. The fed already committed to 75 for November. By December is when lower rate hikes should start.
@SpikeUM …thanks
 
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CNN
Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper is pleading with the Federal Reserve to pause its relentless attack on crushing inflation before it does more harm than good.


"High inflation necessitates a response. But the concern is the Fed is doing too much too soon," Hickenlooper wrote in a letter on Thursday to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. "We should wait to see the effects on the economy and how those changes are absorbed…….. *ding”

The letter, shared first with CNN, is the latest effort by Senate Democrats to persuade the central bank to stop slamming the brakes on the economy. Hickenlooper notes that interest rate hikes are the Fed's "bluntest tool" and officials have already "wielded that hammer repeatedly."

"Raising rates now when prices may come down would be foolish and damaging to American consumers and small businesses," Hickenlooper wrote, adding that the Fed's actions so far have "failed" to knock inflation down.
 
El-Arian….
Financial Stability: The central bank is expected to be less hawkish in the future, although a 75 basis points rate hike has been factored in by market participants.

“[Paul] Volcker dealt with growth and inflation. [Fed] Chair Powell has on top of that financial stability,” El-Erian told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.

In case the central bank pivots away from its present hawkish policy, “it will be because of financial stability. It’s not going to be because they’ve decided to not look at inflation anymore,” he said.
 
mr.h said:
CNN
Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper is pleading with the Federal Reserve to pause its relentless attack on crushing inflation before it does more harm than good.


"High inflation necessitates a response. But the concern is the Fed is doing too much too soon," Hickenlooper wrote in a letter on Thursday to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. "We should wait to see the effects on the economy and how those changes are absorbed…….. *ding”

The letter, shared first with CNN, is the latest effort by Senate Democrats to persuade the central bank to stop slamming the brakes on the economy. Hickenlooper notes that interest rate hikes are the Fed's "bluntest tool" and officials have already "wielded that hammer repeatedly."

"Raising rates now when prices may come down would be foolish and damaging to American consumers and small businesses," Hickenlooper wrote, adding that the Fed's actions so far have "failed" to knock inflation down.
Click to expand...

Banana republics pressure their central bankers. Look at the disaster Turkey is now, because Erdogan is now effectively the head of their central bank.
 
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BTW, while the headline GDP number was surprisingly strong, the devil is in the details, and it does show some weakness. The 10 year is back below 4%.
 
I'm in the boat that the FED will only adjust for one of 3 reasons: Inflation drops (not happening anytime soon), Unemployment jumps (doesn't appear to be happening yet), and the credit markets break to the point the FED has to reverse course (see BOE). Even if **** breaks, the FED could start increasing its balance sheet while raising rates much like the BOE.

Inflation: we will have choppy inflation for the next 2-5 years and could be longer.
Umemployment: I think our numbers are much worse than calculated and I could see them adjust them to make them look worse so they can slow/stop rate hikes.
Credit Markets: this will be the first thing to happen IMO.
 
While we aren't going to repeat the 1940s or 1970s, they will rhyme with the 2020s. My guess is we see stagflation of the 1970s with YCC from the 1940s. They have to let inflation run hot to burn off the massive public debt. They can say they want to get inflation under control BUT they can't control supply.

The bigger question: do we lose the global currency status? I would say that has already happened to some degree with the EURO and BRICS. For the US to continue to lead the world, we have to keep pushing forward with technology and keep BRICS from having any access to it.
 
Ive always worried about buying alot into the market but with how its tanking its almost a guaranteed win. ******* putin lol!

Thanks jb!!!
 
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