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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
I hope your optimism is correct, I need someone to balance out my pessimism, BUT.... when the yield curve is still inverted, and the 10 year is still at 4%, and the $ index is still rising, and corporate earning are surprisingly strong, and the government continues inflationary policies, you are just begging the Fed to keep going, and they will.

p.s. Condolences on your marketing degree :)
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Thanks.. inverted yield curves do not always predict a recession. The Fed raising rates are causing short-term rates to rise. That’s why I think the Fed should pause and wait and see. Too much, too fast will worsen the economy. Our economy was strong and you don’t kill the patient to cure the disease. As long as there is money to spend, it makes it easier to pay for inflated prices. People need to budget themselves and the very poor get assistance.
I leaned this in Marketing 101.
PS. Cargo ships of LNG are lined up trying to deliver it to Europe……Giddy-up…..
 
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mr.h said:
Thanks.. inverted yield curves do not always predict a recession. The Fed raising rates are causing short-term rates to rise. That’s why I think the Fed should pause and wait and see. Too much, too fast will worsen the economy. Our economy was strong and you don’t kill the patient to cure the disease. As long as there is money to spend, it makes it easier to pay for inflated prices. People need to budget themselves and the very poor get assistance.
I leaned this in Marketing 101.
PS. Cargo ships of LNG are lined up trying to deliver it to Europe……Giddy-up…..
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You are focusing on the economy, inflation comes first. With it running at a 40 year high, the Fed has no choice.
 
From today's Barron's

A Fickle Market. For a second consecutive day, investors were happy to forget inflation, interest rates, economic slowdowns, and geopolitics. Stocks jumped at the open and held onto to positive territory for the entire day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 338 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 also closed up 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.
Despite two strong days of trading, most market observers are still seeing a bear market rally, rather than a long-term shift in dynamics. Think of the volatility -- the violent ups and the sharp downs -- as a scale trying to find its equilibrium.

This morning, in a note titled "Short Term Rips Lead to Deeper Dips," Chris Senyek of Wolfe Research reminds clients:

In our view, price volatility in risk asset markets is a "directionless" concept. In other words, big price swings in both directions are only indicative of a highly uncertain environment.
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SpikeUM said:
?
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My mistake I was going in another direction and focusing on the economy.Credit card rates are killing the middle class. They are at 20++%.
We also tried putting price caps on certain items during the last inflationary period, but that didn’t work. I still think a temporary pause on rate increases wouldn’t cause hyperinflation.
 
mr.h said:
My mistake I was going in another direction and focusing on the economy.Credit card rates are killing the middle class. They are at 20++%.
We also tried putting price caps on certain items during the last inflationary period, but that didn’t work. I still think a temporary pause on rate increases wouldn’t cause hyperinflation.
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The problem is, the Fed cant afford to be wrong for our long term economic prosperity.
 
SpikeUM said:
The problem is, the Fed cant afford to be wrong for our long term economic prosperity.
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The Fed got us into this situation by easing and keeping rates low for too long. I believe now they are over-correcting. Inflation has peaked and we will keep gas prices at bay by releasing more strategic oil reserves. By the end of the year our oil and gas production will be up significantly. We are already sending LNG to Europe, which will help. I believe we will see inflation decline more rapidly in 2023.
 
mr.h said:
The Fed got us into this situation by easing and keeping rates low for too long. I believe now they are over-correcting. Inflation has peaked and we will keep gas prices at bay by releasing more strategic oil reserves. By the end of the year our oil and gas production will be up significantly. We are already sending LNG to Europe, which will help. I believe we will see inflation decline more rapidly in 2023.
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I think there are other things to blame.
 
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mr.h said:
The Fed got us into this situation by easing and keeping rates low for too long. I believe now they are over-correcting. Inflation has peaked and we will keep gas prices at bay by releasing more strategic oil reserves. By the end of the year our oil and gas production will be up significantly. We are already sending LNG to Europe, which will help. I believe we will see inflation decline more rapidly in 2023.
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Like I said, I need an optimist to complement by pessimism.
 
SpikeUM said:
Like I said, I need an optimist to complement by pessimism.
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Everything should be baked into the market. You saw what happened after the last big drop. Buyers came in bigly.
If it happens again, we’ll see the same response.
You Need A Hug GIF by BNNVARA

NO HOMO…. :ibis-roflmao-sm3: :ibis-roflmao-sm3:
 
mr.h said:
Everything should be baked into the market. You saw what happened after the last big drop. Buyers came in bigly.
If it happens again, we’ll see the same response.
You Need A Hug GIF by BNNVARA

NO HOMO…. :ibis-roflmao-sm3: :ibis-roflmao-sm3:
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So oil is up and the market is down after Brandon's speech. The idiot put a floor on the price of oil ($70), so my downside of owning oil is $10, my upside is $70+ or 100%. Not everything is baked in to the market.
 
SpikeUM said:
So oil is up and the market is down after Brandon's speech. The idiot put a floor on the price of oil ($70), so my downside of owning oil is $10, my upside is $70+ or 100%. Not everything is baked in to the market.
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Today was not the best day to discuss bullishness...lol
Tomorrow we get jobless claims. Going into X-Mas, retailers are cutting prices because of inventory. Banks are doing better because of higher rates and the American consumer [demand] is still strong. $70. a Bbl is still profitable for the oil companies and like I said, they are ramping up production.
I don't know how we could of not had inflation, with the Fed keeping rates low for too long. The Fed is not a political arm. The Fed Chairman was put in by the previous administration.
 
mr.h said:
Today was not the best day to discuss bullishness...lol
Tomorrow we get jobless claims. Going into X-Mas, retailers are cutting prices because of inventory. Banks are doing better because of higher rates and the American consumer [demand] is still strong. $70. a Bbl is still profitable for the oil companies and like I said, they are ramping up production.
I don't know how we could of not had inflation, with the Fed keeping rates low for too long. The Fed is not a political arm. The Fed Chairman was put in by the previous administration.
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You just gave us the arguments why the Fed should keep raising.
 
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SpikeUM said:
You just gave us the arguments why the Fed should keep raising.
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Agree, but I’ve been suggesting a pause or lower rate hikes. I’m thinking of the stock market. Why kill the patient to cure the disease, especially if inflation has peaked. I believe rate hikes are priced in and the recession could be milder if we use a scalpel instead of a chainsaw. We’re going to be worse off.
 
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