I think the Fed should pause. This is a normal economic cycle exacerbated by supply shortages due to the covid outbreak and now a war in Ukraine. Yes interest rates were too low for too long, but give it more time. Oil and Nat gas are coming online. Supply is opening up and we don’t need to drive this strong economy into a recession. We have jobs and people are bettering themselves.
It’s all going to be based on last year’s prices. I think once we line up with the spike last year, the Fed backs off.
If you mean cutting the rate HIKES, I agree. But the Fed actually CUTTING rates, I don't see. We are approaching historically normal level for interest levels. Things will have to get real nasty for a couple of months before the Fed decides to reduce rates again.
I believe that consumer demand and Monetary policies are pushing up inflation, so it goes back to the basic supply and demand. The lack of supply directly or indirectly affects production costs. Oil is controlled by cartels, which we can’t fill even with the Keystone pipeline. We might as well use coal for the short term. As costs go up eventually demand will go down, but it will take a while. That is why I think we should pause. Killing jobs is recessionary.
This is one thing I just don't understand. We have a couple million new workers coming into the country that last year or two and people still can't find employees? There is a massive pool of unskilled labor not even including them, so how are they all supporting themselves?
There are already shortages of home healthcare and agriculture. Two areas where we need immigrants to fill. Shame on both parties for not passing an immigration bill.
But my big question is why we still have massive public assistance if there's large demand for unskilled labor along with what are those in that labor force doing for income.
And vote twice..
About healthcare education., there are programs that are limited entry like sonography that people try for years to get into. There are others like nursing that require full time attendance. That all limits your pool of potential candidates.
I hope your optimism is correct, I need someone to balance out my pessimism, BUT.... when the yield curve is still inverted, and the 10 year is still at 4%, and the $ index is still rising, and corporate earning are surprisingly strong, and the government continues inflationary policies, you are just begging the Fed to keep going, and they will.Another small rally before close.
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