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From Barron's today.

This is the first good news I have read about in a long while, once there is capitulation, and there is no one else selling, you have a bottom. Maybe we are there, maybe we are close (thats my sense right now, need to see inflation actually going down)

A net 72% expect a weaker economy in the next 12 months, and 91% say earnings are unlikely to rise 10% of more in the next year.

A growing percentage are expecting a policy pivot: 28% expect lower short-term rates in the next 12 months, up from 14% in September.

The survey “screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, and crucially start of policy capitulation,” said Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett.

The S&P 500 SPX, 0.47% has dropped 23% this year, and S&P’s U.S. government bond index has declined by 12%.
 
mr.h said:
I think the Fed should pause. This is a normal economic cycle exacerbated by supply shortages due to the covid outbreak and now a war in Ukraine. Yes interest rates were too low for too long, but give it more time. Oil and Nat gas are coming online. Supply is opening up and we don’t need to drive this strong economy into a recession. We have jobs and people are bettering themselves.
I don’t think we have to do this so drastically.
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The last two inflation reports were not supply side driven.
 
mr.h said:
Earnings ^^^
Can you imagine the pop when we get rate cuts in 2023.
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If you mean cutting the rate HIKES, I agree. But the Fed actually CUTTING rates, I don't see. We are approaching historically normal level for interest levels. Things will have to get real nasty for a couple of months before the Fed decides to reduce rates again.
 
SpikeUM said:
The last two inflation reports were not supply side driven.
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I believe that consumer demand and Monetary policies are pushing up inflation, so it goes back to the basic supply and demand. The lack of supply directly or indirectly affects production costs. Oil is controlled by cartels, which we can’t fill even with the Keystone pipeline. We might as well use coal for the short term. As costs go up eventually demand will go down, but it will take a while. That is why I think we should pause. Killing jobs is recessionary.
If I’m missing something, please explain it to me.
 
mr.h said:
I believe that consumer demand and Monetary policies are pushing up inflation, so it goes back to the basic supply and demand. The lack of supply directly or indirectly affects production costs. Oil is controlled by cartels, which we can’t fill even with the Keystone pipeline. We might as well use coal for the short term. As costs go up eventually demand will go down, but it will take a while. That is why I think we should pause. Killing jobs is recessionary.
If I’m missing something, please explain it to me.
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The Fed's primary responsibility is to keep inflation in check, employment is secondary and the stock market not at all, at least in theory.

They have obviously effed that up royally, but its the Federal Governments continued spendthrift ways that is the core problem. There is simply too much money in circulation, and a lot of folks have not returned to work. I am near Boone right now, and even though school is back in session, the restaurants and shops still dont have enough employees.

Remember that there are still trillions of $ to be spent on infrastructure (has anyone actually seen anything?) and the infamous "inflation reduction act", which does the exact opposite, plus the war on oil and all of the other spending, tax credits, student loan forgiveness, etc.

Which is why I dont think the Fed will stop, at least this year, and I am still concerned about stagflation.
 
SpikeUM said:
The Fed's primary responsibility is to keep inflation in check, employment is secondary and the stock market not at all, at least in theory.

They have obviously effed that up royally, but its the Federal Governments continued spendthrift ways that is the core problem. There is simply too much money in circulation, and a lot of folks have not returned to work. I am near Boone right now, and even though school is back in session, the restaurants and shops still dont have enough employees.

Remember that there are still trillions of $ to be spent on infrastructure (has anyone actually seen anything?) and the infamous "inflation reduction act", which does the exact opposite, plus the war on oil and all of the other spending, tax credits, student loan forgiveness, etc.

Which is why I dont think the Fed will stop, at least this year, and I am still concerned about stagflation.
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This is one thing I just don't understand. We have a couple million new workers coming into the country that last year or two and people still can't find employees? There is a massive pool of unskilled labor not even including them, so how are they all supporting themselves?
 
JD08 said:
This is one thing I just don't understand. We have a couple million new workers coming into the country that last year or two and people still can't find employees? There is a massive pool of unskilled labor not even including them, so how are they all supporting themselves?
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There are already shortages of home healthcare and agriculture. Two areas where we need immigrants to fill. Shame on both parties for not passing an immigration bill.
 
mr.h said:
There are already shortages of home healthcare and agriculture. Two areas where we need immigrants to fill. Shame on both parties for not passing an immigration bill.
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But my big question is why we still have massive public assistance if there's large demand for unskilled labor along with what are those in that labor force doing for income.
 
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mr.h said:
There are already shortages of home healthcare and agriculture. Two areas where we need immigrants to fill. Shame on both parties for not passing an immigration bill.
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Shame on both parties I agree, but for a town of 20,000+ students, there should be no labor shortages.
 
mr.h said:
There are already shortages of home healthcare and agriculture. Two areas where we need immigrants to fill. Shame on both parties for not passing an immigration bill.
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It is related to our student loan program, which is a disaster. We dont have enough doctors, nurses, medical technicians, scientists, mathematicians, accountants, engineers, etc. I would give scholarships for those programs and eff more marketing majors, etc.
 
SpikeUM said:
It is related to our student loan program, which is a disaster. We dont have enough doctors, nurses, medical technicians, scientists, mathematicians, accountants, engineers, etc. I would give scholarships for those programs and eff more marketing majors, etc.
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About healthcare education., there are programs that are limited entry like sonography that people try for years to get into. There are others like nursing that require full time attendance. That all limits your pool of potential candidates.
 
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mr.h said:
Another small rally before close.
Netflix beats

@SpikeUM ..I majored in Mgt. and minored in Marketing .. :ibis-roflmao-sm3:
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I hope your optimism is correct, I need someone to balance out my pessimism, BUT.... when the yield curve is still inverted, and the 10 year is still at 4%, and the $ index is still rising, and corporate earning are surprisingly strong, and the government continues inflationary policies, you are just begging the Fed to keep going, and they will.

p.s. Condolences on your marketing degree :)
 
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