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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:

The Latest on the Economy​

Offices Around America Hit a New Vacancy Record​

America’s offices are emptier than at any point in at least four decades, reflecting years of overbuilding and shifting work habits that were accelerated by the pandemic. A staggering 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics, up from 18.8% a year earlier. That is slightly above the previous records of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991, and the highest number since at least 1979, which is as far back as Moody’s data goes, Konrad Putzier writes.
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This is why real estate reits scare me.
 
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SpikeUM said:
I would not make THAT big of a generalization, there are Data Center REITS, storage, warehouse, etc.
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Keep Talking Idris Elba GIF
 
The larger issue is that if say 20% of office loans go sour, we are talking about tens of billions if not hundreds of billions of losses, and the lenders may/will not have the capital to lend to other types of real estate.
 
There used to be a lot of small office/storefront buildings in little towns across the Midwest that came up for sale on the regular. I'd kinda like to buy one and rent out the storefront and live upstairs for my retirement.

The only one I can find right now is in Washington, GA and I have zero interest in retiring in Washington, GA.

www.historicproperties.com

Lowe-Sanders Building

<p>Nestled amid a row of downtown buildings on the town square in historic Washington, the Lowe-Sand...
www.historicproperties.com www.historicproperties.com
 
Lots of very smart people with starkly different views.

Tom Lee is forecasting a great year, fueled by lots of cash on the sidelines and FOMO. Others, like Marko Kolanovic are concerned that markets are reflecting a Goldilocks soft landing, which rarely happens. Lastly, folks like Jeffrey Gundlach are expecting a severe recession and big market hit.

So who is right?
 
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SpikeUM said:
Lots of very smart people with starkly different views.

Tom Lee is forecasting a great year, fueled by lots of cash on the sidelines and FOMO. Others, like Marko Kolanovic are concerned that markets are reflecting a Goldilocks soft landing, which rarely happens. Lastly, folks like Jeffrey Gundlach are expecting a severe recession and big market hit.

So who is right?
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I am not worried about recession until I see interest rates bottom out again and no cash on the sidelines.
 
SpikeUM said:
Lots of very smart people with starkly different views.

Tom Lee is forecasting a great year, fueled by lots of cash on the sidelines and FOMO. Others, like Marko Kolanovic are concerned that markets are reflecting a Goldilocks soft landing, which rarely happens. Lastly, folks like Jeffrey Gundlach are expecting a severe recession and big market hit.

So who is right?
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Random walk down Wall Street.
 
SpikeUM said:
Remember that the market is anticipatory, if there is a recession, rates wont bottom for 6-12 months.
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A bottom for FED Funds or mortgage rates or both? Would expect a lag on mortgage rates as banks pump up the spread some.
 
what’s everyone’s take on the housing market.. Think its going to go down at all or this going to be the new norm?
 
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Canefan4life said:
what’s everyone’s take on the housing market.. Think its going to go down at all or this going to be the new norm?
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Housing- that depends greatly by market and economic outlook. If we see unemployment jump, we could see the housing market dip a little BUT the Fed is likely to cut rates before any dip becomes a serious drop.

Personally- I’m selling a bunch of rentals and buying more in better areas. I’m still finding good off market deals netting me 20-30% of equity after repairs.

In another 10 years, I’ll look at reits and stock markets to preserve wealth.
 
Canefan4life said:
what’s everyone’s take on the housing market.. Think its going to go down at all or this going to be the new norm?
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I think dips are temporary. Stock market will always move faster than real estate. If you are looking for an investment, keep your eyes open for foreclosures. They are few and far between right now.
 
TheEye said:
I think dips are temporary. Stock market will always move faster than real estate. If you are looking for an investment, keep your eyes open for foreclosures. They are few and far between right now.
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I’m looking for personal to upgrade. Don’t want to pay the property taxes but don’t see housing drop more than 10%- 15%. 800k for a house on 5 acres that needs 100k… just been waiting a couple years and losing patience 😂
 
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