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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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TheEye said:

Down $49 a month from last year. Certainly not an increase.

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Miami down 0.8% from last month. I suspect the trend continues.
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I am not seeing it, but I will have a fresh spate of reports on the 15th.
 
TheEye said:
Time for Jerome Powell to take a vacation.
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From Barron's today:

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign looked all but over last week. Yet doubts are starting to creep in.

In Washington, Jerome Powell may have noticed a development 10,000 miles that may add to that uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates Tuesday, the central bank’s first hike since June.

Granted, it’s a different economy on the other side of the world, but it’s a cautionary tale that Fed officials ought to be mindful of. The reason for the hike, after four consecutive pauses, is stubborn inflation.

In the U.S. investors will have to wait another week to find out just how stubborn inflation is, with October’s consumer-price index released next Tuesday. It’s a data point that is becoming increasingly important for the Fed, and markets.

The U.S. central bank’s officials have a tough decision to make in the months ahead. They will be mindful of the potential economic impact if they overtighten, yet they could be thinking that one more hike now, after two pauses, could prevent the Fed following its Australian counterpart—forced to increase rates after holding for four meetings.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari gave an indication of which way the Fed may lean. He said it’s better to overtighten than to not do enough to tackle inflation, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

The odds of another hike by the Fed’s January meeting are still low, at just 15%, down from 39% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. But a sticky inflation reading, and more Fed speakers echoing Kashkari’s comments could see those chances edge higher.

The hike Down Under could even tip the balance toward the Fed opting for another increase in December or January—just to make sure.
 
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SpikeUM said:
From Barron's today:

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign looked all but over last week. Yet doubts are starting to creep in.

In Washington, Jerome Powell may have noticed a development 10,000 miles that may add to that uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates Tuesday, the central bank’s first hike since June.

Granted, it’s a different economy on the other side of the world, but it’s a cautionary tale that Fed officials ought to be mindful of. The reason for the hike, after four consecutive pauses, is stubborn inflation.

In the U.S. investors will have to wait another week to find out just how stubborn inflation is, with October’s consumer-price index released next Tuesday. It’s a data point that is becoming increasingly important for the Fed, and markets.

The U.S. central bank’s officials have a tough decision to make in the months ahead. They will be mindful of the potential economic impact if they overtighten, yet they could be thinking that one more hike now, after two pauses, could prevent the Fed following its Australian counterpart—forced to increase rates after holding for four meetings.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari gave an indication of which way the Fed may lean. He said it’s better to overtighten than to not do enough to tackle inflation, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

The odds of another hike by the Fed’s January meeting are still low, at just 15%, down from 39% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. But a sticky inflation reading, and more Fed speakers echoing Kashkari’s comments could see those chances edge higher.

The hike Down Under could even tip the balance toward the Fed opting for another increase in December or January—just to make sure.
Click to expand...
For all the complaints about strict covid policies here in America, we are dwarfed compared to Australia. Their budget deficit must be enormous.
 
SpikeUM said:
I am not seeing it, but I will have a fresh spate of reports on the 15th.
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Check for increased vacancies. They have been leading us to reduce asking prices for units here in Orlando. I have been observing a dramatic increase in occupants per unit. People who had no roommates a couple years ago now have 1 or even 2 more occupants living with them.
 
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Interesting that two weeks ago we closed a point off the technical support and rallied very quickly to resistance today, and then sold off.
 
SpikeUM said:
Interesting that two weeks ago we closed a point off the technical support and rallied very quickly to resistance today, and then sold off.
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What’s the next move according to Fibonacci?
 
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The Italian is passed out in bed from a 3 year bender.

In all seriousness, the government shutdown is the next big item. If it shuts down, markets will head south IMO.
 
TheEye said:
What’s the next move according to Fibonacci?
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I am not a technicals expert and also they are a data point to consider, not a sole decision maker. They have been bullish to very bullish, but +/- 4400 needs to be broken for the next leg up. Otherwise, we are stuck in a lower highs/lower lows pattern.
 
SpikeUM said:
I am not a technicals expert and also they are a data point to consider, not a sole decision maker. They have been bullish to very bullish, but +/- 4400 needs to be broken for the next leg up. Otherwise, we are stuck in a lower highs/lower lows pattern.
Click to expand...
Current range S&P 500= 4100-4400

Which one breaks first? Stay tuned.
 
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