SP+ Top 10 defenses for 2020

The person saying Miami was good last year despite results was Bill Connelly and his SP+, the whose formula says we'll be good next year and is the focus of this thread.

I'm aware. It's a model I'd like to dig into more deeply, as it seems highly flawed as best I can tell.

The point of a model is to either be indicative or predictive, in this case, I think the latter. Well, if the indications or predictions don't match the reality, there's a problem with the model.

I'd bet dimes to dollars there's a computational error in there, just like UCF's stupid Colley index.
 
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DB has the highest.
QB and WR has the highest on offense.
RB has the lowest.

I figued it'd be DB on defense, as that's probably the most cerebral position (though an argument can be made for MLB, so I'm a little surprised there). I'd think on O it would be QB and OL. WR doesn't make a ton of sense, short of understanding the playbook and route trees.
 
If analytics without context were useful, data scientists wouldn't exist.

As a finance guy, I'm all about models. We basically are trying to predict the future. That said, a model should always be taken with a grain of salt. Models are based on assumptions given what we know today. Any flaw in the assumptions immediately invalidates the result of the model. Just like with this SP+... if the outcomes don't match reality, your brain should always triumph over predictions.

The outputs of a model should be one factor of many in a broader view/analysis/decision.
 
I'm aware. It's a model I'd like to dig into more deeply, as it seems highly flawed as best I can tell.

The point of a model is to either be indicative or predictive, in this case, I think the latter. Well, if the indications or predictions don't match the reality, there's a problem with the model.

I'd bet dimes to dollars there's a computational error in there, just like UCF's stupid Colley index.


The Colley Matrix thing with UCF is in part because that model doesn’t take into account margin of victory.

The S&P model does pretty well against the spread, although it occasionally has some hard to figure out stuff like the 2019 Canes.
 
The Colley Matrix thing with UCF is in part because that model doesn’t take into account margin of victory.

The S&P model does pretty well against the spread, although it occasionally has some hard to figure out stuff like the 2019 Canes.

My point was the Colley Matrix has made at least three known computational errors.
 
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No reason to think the defense will be any worse than 2019. What you lose with Garvin, Bandy, Shaq, Pinck, and Finley...you gain with experienced safeties, a healthy Silvera, increased athleticism at backer, JJ Phillips, Roche, a deeper rotation at tackle and.....gulp....an even better GR15.

And if you pair a good to very good Lashlee offense with the 2019 defense, it’s a cakewalk to Charlotte.
 
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I think we should pretend to rush the ends on 3rd and long, then drop them back into coverage. After about 5 seconds, send the entire secondary in to blitz. Sure, it might be a little late, but when has that stopped us in the past?
 
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Safeties, big part of the defense, abother year of experience, older, stronger

DL looks to be strong

LBs more athletic

Biggest ? Is CB but if the DL does what it’s suppose to do then we should be ok

If JJ Phillips plays to 3/4 of his HS ranking, we have the best edge rush group in the country.
 
If JJ Phillips plays to 3/4 of his HS ranking, we have the best edge rush group in the country.

More like history

Ross projected Top 5

Phillips is the 7th highest ranked DE in ranking history, 4th highest WDE in recruiting history

Mentioned in another topic, every player in front of Phillips had a great college career, except Seantrel Henderson who was still pretty decent here
 
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