Empirical Cane
We are what we repeatedly do.
- Joined
- Sep 3, 2018
- Messages
- 45,178
We've seen porsts in detail about the data this season with @Lance Roffers , @Memnon , @Midlo Cane Fan , and others always bringing tremendous analysis and commentary.
What I’d like to discuss are the qualitatives or atmospherics that continue to plague our Canes over and over again. I could write pages and pages on this ****, but I won't torture you more than usual so I'll keep it at the 100,000 ft level.
But first, a few things to know: 7.36 and 7.16.
Those are the average number of regular season wins our Canes have had 2012-2022 and 2017-2022 respectively. No matter what corch, no matter the culture installed, Miami is good for about 7-ish wins a year and 1 big “we byke now maybe?” win every 5 years. In between you can guarantee Miami will lose to every “top” team out of conference and in ACC play each year every year. Are these losses self-inflicted or just better players on other teams? As @SayWhat said recently, for every good play our Canes make, we discount the missed execution of the opponent and vice versa. The atmospherics continue to indicate the upper tier opponents do this to Miami catastrophically almost exclusively in a one-way direction game after game after game.
During the 2nd to last play against Georgia Tech, Couch jumps a split second early and the receiver grabs the out completion. Kam jumps the last play and national humiliation ensues--either ends the game if they turn differently. Again, dark cloud atmospherics just follow our Hurricanes like a NOAA Storm Tracker.
Against UNC, as @Memnon pointed out, the DBs just need to be faster, but the massive deficient qualitatives make you want to vomit. Several boneheaded miscues made UNC look like world beaters and they are far from it. The foolish penalties when we all know the referees are already going to make **** up. The fumbles, the interceptions, the lack of vision to see open receivers and throwing into traffic. These atmospherics are as thick as a California Central Coast marine layer. Quite frankly, Miami is lucky to get to a 7 win average with the heavy weight of this albatross hanging on Sebastian’s neck each season.
From a model perspective (at least my broken homegrown one), Miami has been wildly inconsistent and their opponents have been very consistent. Against GT, our Canes underperformed by 21-ish points and GT scored as expected. Against UNC, our Canes underperformed by 11-ish and UNC overperformed by 7-ish. The embarrassing ending to the GT game and the catastrophic 3rd quarter at UNC would be something for other teams to learn from, but for Miami, it’s just what is expected to occur no matter who is the HC, OC, or DC since forever. The data and atmospherics are what they are and won't be any different until they change.
Look at the recent Red River Rivalry and OU’s mythical 4-play 1yd goal line stand. That series proved to be one of several critical sets that determined the outcome of the game. OU came away “Texas fears Oklahoma”. Texas came away with “fire that drunk **** Sark, we suck!” Both parties would be wrong if they would just look at the atmospherics of what really happened. On 2nd down, Texas’ RB hits the frontside A gap where OU’s LB was blindly crashing into. Had he just hit the frontside B gap, he walks in for a TD untouched and Texas ultimately wins the game and Sark goes from “**** you drunk” to “better than Saban, we byke!”. It wasn't near the great play everyone thinks it is, but rather 50-50 toss up to the football furies. These two teams are very likely going to meet again in the Big 12 CG and I suspect Texas is going to give them a beating (especially seeing how UCF gave OU all they wanted today).
What’s my point? Miami’s 10-year/5-year/forever qualitatives, the atmospherics clouding the program ALWAYS seem to hit the A gap with the LB crashing down. The opponent seems to ALWAYS hit the B gap with Miami’s LB crashing down into the A gap. Just keeps happening over and over and our Canes get 7 wins each season.
Unfortunately, I don’t see that changing against Clemson tonight.
Clemson 33-ish
Miami 23-ish
To make it matters worse (or better I suppose) all bets and models are off if Emory is under center...
Go Canes!
What I’d like to discuss are the qualitatives or atmospherics that continue to plague our Canes over and over again. I could write pages and pages on this ****, but I won't torture you more than usual so I'll keep it at the 100,000 ft level.
But first, a few things to know: 7.36 and 7.16.
Those are the average number of regular season wins our Canes have had 2012-2022 and 2017-2022 respectively. No matter what corch, no matter the culture installed, Miami is good for about 7-ish wins a year and 1 big “we byke now maybe?” win every 5 years. In between you can guarantee Miami will lose to every “top” team out of conference and in ACC play each year every year. Are these losses self-inflicted or just better players on other teams? As @SayWhat said recently, for every good play our Canes make, we discount the missed execution of the opponent and vice versa. The atmospherics continue to indicate the upper tier opponents do this to Miami catastrophically almost exclusively in a one-way direction game after game after game.
During the 2nd to last play against Georgia Tech, Couch jumps a split second early and the receiver grabs the out completion. Kam jumps the last play and national humiliation ensues--either ends the game if they turn differently. Again, dark cloud atmospherics just follow our Hurricanes like a NOAA Storm Tracker.
Against UNC, as @Memnon pointed out, the DBs just need to be faster, but the massive deficient qualitatives make you want to vomit. Several boneheaded miscues made UNC look like world beaters and they are far from it. The foolish penalties when we all know the referees are already going to make **** up. The fumbles, the interceptions, the lack of vision to see open receivers and throwing into traffic. These atmospherics are as thick as a California Central Coast marine layer. Quite frankly, Miami is lucky to get to a 7 win average with the heavy weight of this albatross hanging on Sebastian’s neck each season.
From a model perspective (at least my broken homegrown one), Miami has been wildly inconsistent and their opponents have been very consistent. Against GT, our Canes underperformed by 21-ish points and GT scored as expected. Against UNC, our Canes underperformed by 11-ish and UNC overperformed by 7-ish. The embarrassing ending to the GT game and the catastrophic 3rd quarter at UNC would be something for other teams to learn from, but for Miami, it’s just what is expected to occur no matter who is the HC, OC, or DC since forever. The data and atmospherics are what they are and won't be any different until they change.
Look at the recent Red River Rivalry and OU’s mythical 4-play 1yd goal line stand. That series proved to be one of several critical sets that determined the outcome of the game. OU came away “Texas fears Oklahoma”. Texas came away with “fire that drunk **** Sark, we suck!” Both parties would be wrong if they would just look at the atmospherics of what really happened. On 2nd down, Texas’ RB hits the frontside A gap where OU’s LB was blindly crashing into. Had he just hit the frontside B gap, he walks in for a TD untouched and Texas ultimately wins the game and Sark goes from “**** you drunk” to “better than Saban, we byke!”. It wasn't near the great play everyone thinks it is, but rather 50-50 toss up to the football furies. These two teams are very likely going to meet again in the Big 12 CG and I suspect Texas is going to give them a beating (especially seeing how UCF gave OU all they wanted today).
What’s my point? Miami’s 10-year/5-year/forever qualitatives, the atmospherics clouding the program ALWAYS seem to hit the A gap with the LB crashing down. The opponent seems to ALWAYS hit the B gap with Miami’s LB crashing down into the A gap. Just keeps happening over and over and our Canes get 7 wins each season.
Unfortunately, I don’t see that changing against Clemson tonight.
Clemson 33-ish
Miami 23-ish
To make it matters worse (or better I suppose) all bets and models are off if Emory is under center...
Go Canes!
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