I realize why everyone has high hopes for Kelly and Moss but I'd take a look at what freshmen edge rushers usually produce
from last year's 247 EDGE composite:
1. Dallas Turner (Bama) -- 30 tackles, 10 TFL, 8.5 sacks
2. Clayton Smith (Oklahoma) -- 3 tackles, 0.5 TFL
3. Keanu Koht (Bama) -- no stats
4. Demeioun Robinson (Maryland) -- 19 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 sacks
5. Jeremiah Williams (Florida) -- 3 tackles
6. Dylan Brooks (Auburn) -- no stats
7. Kevin Gilliam (Oklahoma) -- 2 tackles
8. Landon Jackson (LSU) -- no stats
9. Wilfredo Aybar (Stanford) -- no stats
10. TJ Bollers (Wisconsin) -- no stats
11. Saivion Jones (LSU) -- 3 tackles
12. Ethan Downs (Oklahoma) -- 14 tackles, 3 TFL, 0.5 sacks
13. Zaire Patterson (Clemson) -- no stats
14. Elijah Jeudy (Texas A&M) -- 1 tackle
15. Jahzion Harris (Texas A&M) -- 4 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack
2020 247 WDE (before they combined it all into one EDGE ranking) composite:
1. Will Anderson (Bama) -- 52 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 7 sacks
2. Chris Braswell (Bama) -- no stats
3. Sav'ell Smalls (Washington) -- 7 tackles
4. Desmond Evans (UNC) -- 10 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sacks
5. Donell Harris (Texas A&M) -- 1 tackle
6. BJ Ojulari (LSU) -- 16 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks
7. Chantz Williams (Miami) -- 3 tackles
8. Reggie Grimes (Oklahoma) -- 5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack
9. Fadil Diggs (Texas A&M) -- 2 tackles
10. Antwaun Powell (Florida) -- no stats
11. Demon Clowney (Ole Miss) -- 2 tackles
12. Morven Joseph (Tennessee) -- 2 tackles, 0.5 TFL
13. Jason Harris (Colorado) -- no stats
14. Jaylen Harrell (Michigan) -- 2 tackles
15. Jonathan Horton (UVA) -- no stats
I'm not going to go back and look at previous years but I doubt it's substantially different. Basically, if you're Bama and you're getting the No. 1 edge rusher in the nation you might be able to pencil in some real production. Kayvon Thibodeaux had a monster freshman season, so you can throw him in there too. Otherwise you're getting rotational production at best, but more than likely you're getting no meaningful production in year one. That edge players are largely going to be kids who are athletic and flexible but need to add strength and technique makes it unsurprising that it's a position group where you're not gonna get a lot of first year production.
from last year's 247 EDGE composite:
1. Dallas Turner (Bama) -- 30 tackles, 10 TFL, 8.5 sacks
2. Clayton Smith (Oklahoma) -- 3 tackles, 0.5 TFL
3. Keanu Koht (Bama) -- no stats
4. Demeioun Robinson (Maryland) -- 19 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 sacks
5. Jeremiah Williams (Florida) -- 3 tackles
6. Dylan Brooks (Auburn) -- no stats
7. Kevin Gilliam (Oklahoma) -- 2 tackles
8. Landon Jackson (LSU) -- no stats
9. Wilfredo Aybar (Stanford) -- no stats
10. TJ Bollers (Wisconsin) -- no stats
11. Saivion Jones (LSU) -- 3 tackles
12. Ethan Downs (Oklahoma) -- 14 tackles, 3 TFL, 0.5 sacks
13. Zaire Patterson (Clemson) -- no stats
14. Elijah Jeudy (Texas A&M) -- 1 tackle
15. Jahzion Harris (Texas A&M) -- 4 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack
2020 247 WDE (before they combined it all into one EDGE ranking) composite:
1. Will Anderson (Bama) -- 52 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 7 sacks
2. Chris Braswell (Bama) -- no stats
3. Sav'ell Smalls (Washington) -- 7 tackles
4. Desmond Evans (UNC) -- 10 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sacks
5. Donell Harris (Texas A&M) -- 1 tackle
6. BJ Ojulari (LSU) -- 16 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks
7. Chantz Williams (Miami) -- 3 tackles
8. Reggie Grimes (Oklahoma) -- 5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack
9. Fadil Diggs (Texas A&M) -- 2 tackles
10. Antwaun Powell (Florida) -- no stats
11. Demon Clowney (Ole Miss) -- 2 tackles
12. Morven Joseph (Tennessee) -- 2 tackles, 0.5 TFL
13. Jason Harris (Colorado) -- no stats
14. Jaylen Harrell (Michigan) -- 2 tackles
15. Jonathan Horton (UVA) -- no stats
I'm not going to go back and look at previous years but I doubt it's substantially different. Basically, if you're Bama and you're getting the No. 1 edge rusher in the nation you might be able to pencil in some real production. Kayvon Thibodeaux had a monster freshman season, so you can throw him in there too. Otherwise you're getting rotational production at best, but more than likely you're getting no meaningful production in year one. That edge players are largely going to be kids who are athletic and flexible but need to add strength and technique makes it unsurprising that it's a position group where you're not gonna get a lot of first year production.