You have the right idea HOWEVER, there is a very interesting but illogical outcome based entirely on TIMING.
If we jump Utah, and ND and Vandy stay put. That means we have entered ND's quadrant this week. If the committee says theyll do what they should, then we shouldn't only go up to 12. We should go higher and ahead of ND or atleast ND behind us. Bama. ByU, Miami, ND, different variations but point being is we wont be at #12, we will be higher. Which should protect us against Vandy winning this week.
Now of they jump Vandy ahead of us this week (and drop utah) leaving us where we are. We are stuck there if vandy wins next week.
So even though it shouldn't be the case, its actually very important for us to get into the ND quadrant this week. It may provide very necessary cushion of teams like vandy or Michigan win next week as ND could be the first out or BYU instead of us.