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So, REALLY, how bad is the recruiting?

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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I had to take a step back from myself out of the Misery Puddle this place has become in the last couple days and start to compile some facts and data.

Full disclosure, I'm not saying people shouldn't be concerned, I'm not saying everyone should say everything is lollipops and ice cream, etc. In the 2026 class, we've gone after a ton of big fish, and recently, we've missed on **** near every one of them. So, I get the mood, genunely.

Full disclosure #2...it's July. Again, see the point above, I get it. But until this class is signed, for the positives and negatives, let's just try to have some perspective.

Full disclosure #3....this does NOT take into account attrition, on-field performance once the kids arrive, etc. Obviously this is what it's all about, but right now, we're all smacking our wives around and kicking our dogs because the 2026 class is going to cause the collapse of Western Civilization, and obviously we have no idea how any of these kids will pan out. So this is purely recruiting rankings, which is all we care about in July for an upcoming class.

I looked at the last 3 classes, on the composite, and averaged them. Here is the average of the last 3 classes for every school up to where we stand.

1. UGA - 1.67
2. Alabama - 2.00
3. Texas - 3.33
4. Ohio State - 4.33
5. Oregon - 5.67
6. LSU - 7.33
7. Miami - 8.33
8. Oklahoma - 10.33
9. Notre Dame - 11.00
10. Florida - 11.00

18. FSU - 17.00

So there are exactly six schools in the entire country who have recruited better classes than Miami over the last 3 cycles. Only 7 schools have an average class ranking in the single digits over the past 3 cycles, Miami is one of them.

The mopery has even gotten to me a little bit in the sense that I'm starting to really examine Miami's recruiting ceiling. But look at this. Is there anyone here who thinks there's any coach on the planet we could have hired who would have us ABOVE UGA, Alabama, Texas, or Taint at this point? Show of hands? Who has a name for me that, if hired the same day Mario was, would have us in the top 4? I'm going with zero point zero humans. So....is this really that terrible? Genuinely, I was curious myself, it's been a long time since I looked at this data like this, so I wanted to see where we stood. This kind of reels me in a little bit.

Now, one final mope before I go, the 2025 class was the worst of the three. And 2026, RIGHT NOW, looks to be about the same. So again, I genuinely do get the pessimism. I don't think people are crazy for shaking their heads a little bit here. But let's use a tiny bit of perspective and look big picture. Let's see where this class ends up in December and we can go from there. Because though the 3 real cycles this dude has had here, #7 is pretty **** elite if you ask me. Every single one of those programs above us have been WILDLY more successful than we have in the past 20 years.
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One of those ten teams are not from the SEC/B1G cabal (Notre Dame is part of the cabal I would argue).
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Fair, and I do see that point, but I don't think that's what's most concerning to most of the people *****ing. They just want to see Top 5 classes. Also, all positions are of dire need. So this isn't ****ting on your reply, I appreciate it and I don't think you're wrong. I'm just saying, to me, the mood recently has swung massively, and now we're talking about the next coach after Mario, he's a bridge, etc. etc. Why, exactly? 7 teams have out-recruited him since he got here, and he just had the best season we've had since the kids we're currently recruiting were born.

Also, since the #1 class for Randy in 2008, we have had a Top 10 class twice:

#10 in 2012
#8 in 2018

So, no, our recruiting under previous coaches wasn't as close to as good as it's been since Mario got here. Four top 10 classes in 17 years, and Mario has two of them.
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I agree with you and those 08 12 and 18 classes are why the actual rank means nothing
Clemson is an example of rankings meaning nothing bc they stack on the lines esp dline

when u look deeper u see its a bunch of mid 4 star skill guys in our previously high ranked classes
And the trentches are jags esp oline
Personally I don’t even mind missing on cooper
What’s bothering me if the inability to land a top tier dt and this is 2 years in a row
I can only blame Justin Scott for so long u know
 
jsy said:
I agree with you and those 08 12 and 18 classes are why the actual rank means nothing
Clemson is an example of rankings meaning nothing bc they stack on the lines esp dline

when u look deeper u see its a bunch of mid 4 star skill guys in our previously high ranked classes
And the trentches are jags esp oline
Personally I don’t even mind missing on cooper
What’s bothering me if the inability to land a top tier dt and this is 2 years in a row
I can only blame Justin Scott for so long u know
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DT and safety misses are going to sting for a bit. Hopefully safety will level up with some of our portal additions but we HAVE to do better in HS at DT and Safety.
 
@OrangeBowlMagic

I think we can agree that maybe we should look at reallocating our funds a bit more. Everyone is talking about Cooper but RBs are everywhere and technically if you have a good evaluator there then you’ll always have good back. You can technically make the same argument at WR but Same can’t be said for DTs. That’s where I think the improvement should be.
 
caneholic88 said:
Our recruiting is great considering the conference we’re in and the past 20yrs of fielding middling teams. Top 5 classes were always going to be a pipe dream.
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Top 5 classes, maybe. But if Mario can’t recruit top 10 classes consistently (didn’t last year and it’s looking like we’ll go into the season outside the top 10 this year), what is his value proposition? It’s not scheme or his in-game management (Mario the coach is hurting Mario the recruiter on that front). So if we concede that we won’t recruit at an elite top 5 level and may even struggle to be top 10 consistently, then it seems to me we’ve completely failed in the head coaching model we’ve chosen with a HC whose best skill is recruiting.
 
It hasn't been perfect but it's been significantly better.

It's not elite across the board but there are elite pieces across several position groups.

I'm of the belief that if Mario can scrape and claw his way to consistent 10+ win seasons + playoff appearances that the top 3 recruiting finishes will come. There's no doubt in my mind we will consistently bring in whoever we want, whenever we want if he can win.

What remains to be seen is....can Mario actually win consistently? We'll find out a ton this year.
 
CanesSkins26 said:
Top 5 classes, maybe. But if Mario can’t recruit top 10 classes consistently (didn’t last year and it’s looking like we’ll go into the season outside the top 10 this year), what is his value proposition? It’s not scheme or his in-game management (Mario the coach is hurting Mario the recruiter on that front). So if we concede that we won’t recruit at an elite top 5 level and may even struggle to be top 10 consistently, then it seems to me we’ve completely failed in the head coaching model we’ve chosen with a HC whose best skill is recruiting.
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Fair, but the other side of the coin is, I think we all agree you have to recruit ~Top 5 classes to compete at the highest level. If Mario Cristobal with the Mas Brothers money cannot recruit Top 5 classes, then who can?

And if the answer is no one can, then what's the best strategy for putting the best product on the field year after year? Is it continue to push as hard as possible on the recruiting front (a la Cristobal) and hopefully get close to Top 5 classes or maybe perennial Top 10-ish classes, and hope you can out-talent most teams? Or is it find some schematic genius who can take the talent you have and have it outperform its ranking, but who probably won't recruit at the level Mario does?

My Bull case for hiring Mario was that he would be the best recruiter we could possibly hire who would legitimately come here, and that at the end of the day, talent acquisition trumps all at this level. Through 3 classes, he's done about as well as I think most of us could expect. We're not out-recruiting those top 4 consistently....we're just not. No coach here is going to do that.

In our most recent season, the one that carries the most weight because it's the most recent data point, we had the best year we've had in a very, very long time. Not perfect, and not even good enough, but better than what we've seen. A positive trend, for certain.

So, if the guy coaching the team has given us the best season we've had in about 20 in the most recent edition, and he's been recruiting about as well as can honestly be expected to this point (long way to go on 2026, and if it's in the mid-teens, that's not a great trend), should we all be lining up to light the buildings on fire?
 
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Zbrod95 said:
@OrangeBowlMagic

I think we can agree that maybe we should look at reallocating our funds a bit more. Everyone is talking about Cooper but RBs are everywhere and technically if you have a good evaluator there then you’ll always have good back. You can technically make the same argument at WR but Same can’t be said for DTs. That’s where I think the improvement should be.
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Said this in another thread, but Mallory is a really good player and addition. Of course him paired with Cooper is a home run, but if we pivot and secure another blue chip RB then its a successful haul at RB this class.

The concern and alarm bells are our inability to consistently secure elite DTs, true DTs. I know they don't grow on trees. We really need to get better there. Safety also concerns the crap out of me too.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
14th, 15th, 15th the last 3 years. Pretty easy one to average there, I didn't even have to use my fingers and toes.
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First off, you are not wrong with your initial post - I 96% agree with everything you said - Mario has done a fantastic job in recruiting. For the sake of discussion I’ll throw a curveball as it relates to the coach question posed and the aforementioned recruiting rankings for Penn State….

No coach in America that does more with less if numbers are true.

I know it may not be the popular pick, but I think James Franklin is the answer to the question you posed earlier. He would’ve won the ACC 2x by now - dude can flat out coach…..which I definitely believe would influence those battles we annually lose to Bama/TAINT/OSU etc.
 
caneholic88 said:
Our recruiting is great considering the conference we’re in and the past 20yrs of fielding middling teams. Top 5 classes were always going to be a pipe dream.
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A pipe dream but we had the #4 class 2 cycles ago? Foh with that weak *** loser bull****. This fanbase deserves the mediocrity we have been stuck in.
 
MikeCane18 said:
Said this in another thread, but Mallory is a really good player and addition. Of course him paired with Cooper is a home run, but if we pivot and secure another blue chip RB then its a successful haul at RB this class.

The concern and alarm bells are our inability to consistently secure elite DTs, true DTs. I know they don't grow on trees. We really need to get better there. Safety also concerns the crap out of me too.
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Right and if we shift our NIL focus to what we don’t produce in abundance I think we’ll find more success
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Now, one final mope before I go, the 2025 class was the worst of the three. And 2026, RIGHT NOW, looks to be about the same. So again, I genuinely do get the pessimism. I don't think people are crazy for shaking their heads a little bit here. But let's use a tiny bit of perspective and look big picture. Let's see where this class ends up in December and we can go from there. Because though the 3 real cycles this dude has had here, #7 is pretty **** elite if you ask me. Every single one of those programs above us have been WILDLY more successful than we have in the past 20 years.
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I agree with most of what you wrote. But objectively how is the 26 class not shaping up to be clearly superior to the 25 class in just about every way?

I mean last year we had two top 100 recruits, 7 top 200ish recruits, and 11 four-stars at signing day and a full avg recruit rating of 90.85 with a 57% Blue Chip ratio I think. And our best recruit was flipped in like December in Hayden Lowe, and we ended up landing like Kellen Wiley on NSD I think. The 26 class its currently July for and we have the #1 player in the nation committed for two top 100 recruits, 7 top 200ish recruits, and 14 four-star recruits and a full avg recruit rating of 90.5 with a 70% blue chip ratio right now...

I mean I'd say this 26 class is at worst pacing to be on par to slightly better than last years class. And if we get a handful of remaining targets with a few flips - particularly on the DLine - then this class will be substantially better than last years class imo.
 
TwentySix said:
Manny - 18th
Richt - 14th
Golden - 19th
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This is wrong based upon the criteria that the OP set for Mario. They strategically didn’t consider the class of ‘22, & there’s a reason y. So by that delta, we’ll have to remove the mulligan/transitional classes from Mario’s predecessors, as well, to compare apples to apples.

Diaz avg. class was 11th
Richt’s avg. class was 10.5
Golden’s avg class was 16th
 
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Calinative said:
I agree with most of what you wrote. But objectively how is the 26 class not shaping up to be clearly superior to the 25 class in just about every way?

I mean last year we had two top 100 recruits, 7 top 200ish recruits, and 11 four-stars at signing day and a full avg recruit rating of 90.85 with a 57% Blue Chip ratio I think. And our best recruit was flipped in like December in Hayden Lowe, and we ended up landing like Kellen Wiley on NSD I think. The 26 class its currently July for and we have the #1 player in the nation committed for two top 100 recruits, 7 top 200ish recruits, and 14 four-star recruits and a full avg recruit rating of 90.5 with a 70% blue chip ratio right now...

I mean I'd say this 26 class is at worst pacing to be on par to slightly better than last years class. And if we get a handful of remaining targets with a few flips - particularly on the DLine - then this class will be substantially better than last years class imo.
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Yes, this is very fair. You're right. I just meant on paper, but really stepping back and looking at it, we finished 14th last year. There is definitely no guarantee at all that 2026 is worse than that, as a matter of fact I would think right now the odds would be that we'd be at least 14th or better by the time the ink dries. So yes, you're right, I should've made that point better.
 
Rellyrell said:
This is wrong based upon the criteria that the OP set for Mario. They strategically didn’t consider the class of ‘22, & there’s a reason y. So by that delta, we’ll have to remove the mulligan/transitional classes from Mario’s predecessors, as well, to compare apples to apples.

Diaz avg. class was 11th
Richt’s avg. class was 10.5
Golden’s avg class was 16th
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Of course there's a reason why. Because he recruited the kids for 20 minutes. No coach should be graded on a recruiting class when you're hired on December 6th, and that includes Mario, Manny, Mark, or any other coach on the planet.
 
jsy said:
I agree with you and those 08 12 and 18 classes are why the actual rank means nothing
Clemson is an example of rankings meaning nothing bc they stack on the lines esp dline

when u look deeper u see its a bunch of mid 4 star skill guys in our previously high ranked classes
And the trentches are jags esp oline
Personally I don’t even mind missing on cooper
What’s bothering me if the inability to land a top tier dt and this is 2 years in a row
I can only blame Justin Scott for so long u know
Click to expand...
Yea Cooper is no JJ but he still should be a layup for a “top tier recruiting HC”

Mario will lose this job in about three years cause of his poor DT recruiting. We will always come up short cause of it
 
htownkidd said:
A pipe dream but we had the #4 class 2 cycles ago? Foh with that weak *** loser bull****. This fanbase deserves the mediocrity we have been stuck in.
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Year over year. Probably a feather in Mario's cap he (and the bags) were able to get that #4 class. But no coach here is going to out-recruit OSU, Bama, UGA and Texas in multi-year samples. Nobody.

One year sample? Doable, clearly. He did it. Year over year, multiple-cycles? Not gonna happen.
 
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