Show Your Work or STFU: A UM Conference Poll

When the dust settles on conference realignment, how does it end for UM?

  • UM to the B1G... SOON (on or before 12/31/2027)

  • UM to the B1G... EVENTUALLY (on or after 1/1/2028)

  • UM to the SEC... SOON (on or before 12/31/2027)

  • UM to the SEC... EVENTUALLY (on or after 1/1/2028)

  • UM to go Independent... SOON (on or before 12/31/2027)

  • UM to go Independent... EVENTUALLY (on or after 1/1/2028)

  • UM stays in the ACC (at least through the current contract)


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For sure.

To me, a potential caveat that isn’t being discussed enough is the SEC looking for not just a “traditionally southern program”, but a (possibly short-term, maybe long-term) punching bag for football, while still getting stronger in bball and baseball.

The SEC and their cronies like to beat their chests over the rigor of conference play, the quality of opponent every week…obviously they have a vested interest in propping up and rooting for their teams to win playoff games, and win titles. But you know what happens if you take really talented teams and subject them to physically-taxing wars every week? Short-term gain is amazing - ratings are through the roof, everyone is fixated on those matchups. Life is good. Regular season certainly matters here.

Long-term? Your teams are battered, your chances of showing the best product on the field diminishes, you potentially cost yourself revenue if a perennial power sustains multiple key injuries. Heck, you could miss out on an extra quality team in the playoffs, because 8-4 doesn’t look as good on paper as Oklahoma State’s 10-2 (despite playing an infinitely easier schedule, in this hypothetical).

Now obviously some of that is just charge it to the game - football is violent, unforgiving and cruel. But some can be “controlled”, such as when you play a Vandy (non-Pavia). Big Ten has Rutgers, UCLA (before they made a phenomenal hire), Minnesota, Northwestern (also making a financial commitment now like UCLA, at least short term), Maryland, Illinois…all programs that are just “eh”. Even Wisconsin doesn’t spend like it should. Iowa? Sparty?

Only programs the B10 has that try to spend money are OSU, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska.

Add FSU (a program riddled with debt, unable to, for the foreseeable future, compete on the level of a UGA/Texas/Tennessee/UF etc), Clemson, and UNC might solve that. Adding Miami doesn’t. Miami doesn’t bring anything new to the SEC other than another juggernaut.

If the SEC wants to make a super-conference, maybe. Other than that, I don’t see why they’d want to add us.

Very good post.

I also think that's why the SEC ends up bringing in nine schools from the ACC:

Top of the list from Day One:
1. UNC
2. UVA
3. FSU
4. Clemson

Political cover and a different demographic (and if these two had an inkling they were getting left behind, it'd already be a ****storm imo ... instead, crickets)
5. NC State
6. VA Tech

"Hey SEC presidents, you'll like these two"
7. Duke (No. 1 basketball brand in the country plus, elite academiks and Manny Diaz!)
8. Georgia Tech (Ground Zero for the SEC, i.e. Atlanta)

"Here ya go, ESPN. Now pay up"
9. Miami

If you look at that nine-school list in its entirety, there are a number of schools a Mississippi State or an Arkansas or even a Vanderbilt would feel like it had a decent shot of beating most years. To your point about not making the conference too tough, that's a selling point for those schools typically finishing lower in the standings.

Again, Sankey and Pettiti need just enough buy-in to get the necessary votes to add particular schools
 
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FWIW, Ohio State insiders that are connected to the networks and have been accurate in their predictions on expansion over the years are saying today that Miami to the B10 is essentially a done deal.
More importantly, what’s better Sol Food in Mill Valley, San Rafael or Petaluma?
 
@No_Fly_Zone is this just for announcement?
The actual final date to notify ACC is like 5/31/27 to be in diff conference in 2028 season. So like an announcement after 5/31/27 but before 12/31/27 would be playing in new conference in 2029…. Idk if that was still your intention… just letting you know.

So anyone picking before 12/23/27 to B1G has another 2 seasons worth to still be right basically….
 
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