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Saban: Players lose by entering NFL draft early

Always Correct said:
You look at guys like Norton last year. Leaving without getting drafted. Boulware this year and it doesn’t make a lot of sense. You get a top 3 round grade and I understand leaving early. Saban isn’t wrong on this one. If you’re a running back maybe it is better to leave with a top 5 round grade.

Let’s see what happens with Joe Jackson I’d be surprised if he’s taken in the top 3 rounds. Would he have been better served having one more year in school, most likely.
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This one had me dumbfounded.
 
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Earnest T. Bass said:
And like clockwork, at the end of next season 4 or so Canes underclassman will come out after being told they will be 2nd, 3rd or 4th round selections only to be drafted in the last few rounds, or not drafted at all!

And this will happen despite example after example of Canes players who were fed the same horseshyt and are now asking folks if they want fries with their burgers.

Hopefully, Manny will figure this out and save those kids from themselves. I would like to suggest that Manny consider hiring Guido from the X, Y or Z New York family to take any agent pulling this hustle on a Paulie like drive... Oh, Paulie (Drew Rosenhaus)...won't see him no more!
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I see your point, but I think it's more complex. Just look at a couple examples from this year

Michael Jackson, Jr. - 4 INT's, 2nd team All-ACC
Michael Jackson, Sr. - 0 INT's, Honorable Mention All-ACC
His draft stock is now lower than last year. Is he dumb for returning?

Say McIntosh & Norton returned this past year
- Would Gerald Willis have had the year he did, and would his draft stock be as high as it is now if he had to rotate with those 2?
- Maybe Willis does have a monster year, it probably means Norton would be his backup. Would Norton coming back to lose his starting spot be a good move?
Something would have to give

I don't think it's ever as simple as - come back, play better, get drafted higher, get paid more. There's a lot more risks & negative outcomes that you have to think about.
 
bshaw28 said:
I see your point, but I think it's more complex. Just look at a couple examples from this year

Michael Jackson, Jr. - 4 INT's, 2nd team All-ACC
Michael Jackson, Sr. - 0 INT's, Honorable Mention All-ACC
His draft stock is now lower than last year. Is he dumb for returning?

Say McIntosh & Norton returned this past year
- Would Gerald Willis have had the year he did, and would his draft stock be as high as it is now if he had to rotate with those 2?
- Maybe Willis does have a monster year, it probably means Norton would be his backup. Would Norton coming back to lose his starting spot be a good move?
Something would have to give

I don't think it's ever as simple as - come back, play better, get drafted higher, get paid more. There's a lot more risks & negative outcomes that you have to think about.
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I don't know that I agree with you on Jackson. I believe most teams realize that other teams rarely threw the ball his way his senior season. It is one reason we were good at getting teams off the field on 3rd downs this year. I don't know if he improved his stock, but I would not say it is any lower.
Norton needed another season. Between him and Bethel Norton was a better player. I think Willis would have had an even better year with Norton next to him, as Norton could command a double team whereas Bethel get's blocked with one. With Willis getting double teams it would have allowed Norton to go one vs one and given him a chance to shine.
 
Lester Burnham said:
This one had me dumbfounded.
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Believe he came out and said it was financial. Family was having money issues. Still don't get the decision because he's not going to get drafted and not sure he's even close to good enough to make a practice squad.
 
Insanecane said:
I don't know that I agree with you on Jackson. I believe most teams realize that other teams rarely threw the ball his way his senior season. It is one reason we were good at getting teams off the field on 3rd downs this year. I don't know if he improved his stock, but I would not say it is any lower.
Norton needed another season. Between him and Bethel Norton was a better player. I think Willis would have had an even better year with Norton next to him, as Norton could command a double team whereas Bethel get's blocked with one. With Willis getting double teams it would have allowed Norton to go one vs one and given him a chance to shine.
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IMO - Jackson going from 2nd team All ACC to Honorable Mention ACC reflects how his reputation & stock suffered. Also, Walter football had him as a 2-4th round pick last year, and a 4-6th round this year.

With the DT's - you're forgetting McIntosh. McIntosh & Norton started in 2017. If both come back in 2018, between McIntosh, Norton, and Willis - 1 of them loses their starting spot in 2018. You can't really improve your stock by being a backup.

My point is - I don't think it cut and dry that coming back is always the correct decision like it's made out to be.
 
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Saban has a solid point IF you play for Bama. or in the SEC

Because if you're already at Bama, you know that you will only slightly increase your salary by going Pro....so why risk it?

But for players attending schools outside of the SEC where the players are NOT on salary.....the calculus is much different
 
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Trav said:
You think Manny didn't tell Norton and McIntosh that?
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My point is that even after the kids are provided with facts that prove their decision will almost certainly end badly they still come out. So, to answer your question, I am 100% certain Manny educated last year's crop of early departees and they still walked the plank.
 
bshaw28 said:
I see your point, but I think it's more complex. Just look at a couple examples from this year

Michael Jackson, Jr. - 4 INT's, 2nd team All-ACC
Michael Jackson, Sr. - 0 INT's, Honorable Mention All-ACC
His draft stock is now lower than last year. Is he dumb for returning?

Say McIntosh & Norton returned this past year
- Would Gerald Willis have had the year he did, and would his draft stock be as high as it is now if he had to rotate with those 2?
- Maybe Willis does have a monster year, it probably means Norton would be his backup. Would Norton coming back to lose his starting spot be a good move?
Something would have to give

I don't think it's ever as simple as - come back, play better, get drafted higher, get paid more. There's a lot more risks & negative outcomes that you have to think about.
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Okay. But, you don't have to rely on a hypothesis to form a conclusion, just use the facts. Miami kids have been coming out early over the last many years and almost to a man the results have been horrendous. No what if's...just disaster after disaster!
 
Always Correct said:
You look at guys like Norton last year. Leaving without getting drafted. Boulware this year and it doesn’t make a lot of sense. You get a top 3 round grade and I understand leaving early. Saban isn’t wrong on this one. If you’re a running back maybe it is better to leave with a top 5 round grade.

Let’s see what happens with Joe Jackson I’d be surprised if he’s taken in the top 3 rounds. Would he have been better served having one more year in school, most likely.
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Norton was drafted by Carolina
 
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The guys like Kendrick Norton and Venzell Boulware leaving early were definitely head scratchers. But you can never fault a RB for leaving early since that position has such a short shelf life.

In Joe Jackson's case he is what he is, can't really blame him for leaving. He already has an NFL body had 22 career sacks in 33 games.
 
Earnest T. Bass said:
Okay. But, you don't have to rely on a hypothesis to form a conclusion, just use the facts. Miami kids have been coming out early over the last many years and almost to a man the results have been horrendous. No what if's...just disaster after disaster!
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That's just incorrect - for every bad decision, there's an equal amount that made the correct decision

2017 - Njoku - 1st round
2016 - Artie Burns - 1st round
2015 - Erick Flowers - 1st round, Duke 3rd round

The thought from coaches and fans is - come back, have a big year, go 2 rounds higher, make millions more. The optimistic possibility is presented as if it happens 100% of the time, but it doesn't.

The reality is probably more like:

25% - You have a big year and significantly improve your draft stock
50% - You play about the same and your draft stock is about the same
25% - You get hurt or have a down year, and hurt your draft stock
 
Earnest T. Bass said:
My point is that even after the kids are provided with facts that prove their decision will almost certainly end badly they still come out. So, to answer your question, I am 100% certain Manny educated last year's crop of early departees and they still walked the plank.
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But once he was named head coach he got, Shaq, Pickney and Quarterman to stay, so, hopefully, this will lead to a trend and Manny can help keep more in school.
 
bshaw28 said:
That's just incorrect - for every bad decision, there's an equal amount that made the correct decision

2017 - Njoku - 1st round
2016 - Artie Burns - 1st round
2015 - Erick Flowers - 1st round, Duke 3rd round

The thought from coaches and fans is - come back, have a big year, go 2 rounds higher, make millions more. The optimistic possibility is presented as if it happens 100% of the time, but it doesn't.

The reality is probably more like:

25% - You have a big year and significantly improve your draft stock
50% - You play about the same and your draft stock is about the same
25% - You get hurt or have a down year, and hurt your draft stock
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You list 3 underclassman that coming out early worked for them, but fail to list the 10-15 or 20 who failed miserably. Yet, you claim; "for every bad decision, there's an equal amount that made the correct decision". Your strong point is not math, my friend!

You use words like "probably" to try and make your point where the facts clearly prove you to be wrong. Not interested in your philosophies or coulda, woulda, shoulda narrative.

Be well!
 
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Earnest T. Bass said:
You list 3 underclassman that coming out early worked for them, but fail to list the 10-15 or 20 who failed miserably. Yet, you claim; "for every bad decision, there's an equal amount that made the correct decision". Your strong point is not math, my friend!

You use words like "probably" to try and make your point where the facts clearly prove you to be wrong. Not interested in your philosophies or coulda, woulda, shoulda narrative.

Be well!
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Fair Enough. I actually named 4 and you counted 3, so I have to admit, you got me on the math thing.

So go ahead and list your 10-20 players where it worked out "horrendously" and "failed miserably"

I'll bet you 2 things:

1) You can't even name 10
2) I'll name 1 that made the correct decision for every 1 you say didn't
 
There are a lot of misconceptions in these posts. Many of these comments are based on the false premise that if you stay you automatically get better or get more.

First, if you are not realistically going to improve your draft status to a first or second round pick then the conversation is completely different. All the big paydays are in the first and seconds rounds.

There is a lot more to consider if you are a late pick or may only improve from a late round to a middle round pick. These are just a few of the factors a player is considering.

What is the potential to be picked regardless of round.
After the 2nd and 4th rounds the signing bonuses drop off considerably. You may only get a 100K or less signing bonus.
After the 5th round you are probably not getting a guaranteed contract and are not making a ton of money
NFL rookie minimum is about 500k.
Majority of players in late rounds are out of the league in two years.

Conversely,

Practice squad players make a little over 100K minimum but some make more depending on the team.
They get to work out with actual professional coaches, trainers and players.
They are learning the Pro system and live as a pro while they can take this opportunity to improve their play and status.
You can be picked up by any team off a practice squad, which improves your ability to get onto a roster as opposed to a team using a valuable draft pick.

Tony Romo, Arian Foster, Jason Peters, James Harrison, Danny Woodhead, and Danny Amendola all were on practice squads at one time. It is not impossible even if it is not frequent.

First and second round picks have all the reason to come back. A middle round pick has a decent payout but not much is going to change between 3 and 4 or 5 and 6. Balance all this with coming back to play one more year in college.

Personal issues?
What are the risk of playing? You are not being paid for that risk.
Insurance policies are for realistic high picks…potential late round picks are not likely getting insured.
Will you continue to be motivated to keep playing one more year while looking ahead? (Remember, it doesn’t matter how you think players should be motivated).
How good is the team? How good are the coaches, trainers and over all staff? (Bama is different than Tulsa). Sometimes, a player has to decided if playing another year for a poor team is worth more than 100K a year to practice with professionals.
Staying one more year does not automatically increase your draft status....it is not as simple as stay and get more.

Like it or not…agree or not…many players want to be pros. They may absolutely love Miami but their dream is still to be a pro. I know a lot of you hate players leaving early but no one can balance these factors for the players.
 
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NE Canes said:
There are a lot of misconceptions in these posts. Many of these comments are based on the false premise that if you stay you automatically get better or get more.

First, if you are not realistically going to improve your draft status to a first or second round pick then the conversation is completely different. All the big paydays are in the first and seconds rounds.

There is a lot more to consider if you are a late pick or may only improve from a late round to a middle round pick. These are just a few of the factors a player is considering.

What is the potential to be picked regardless of round.
After the 2nd and 4th rounds the signing bonuses drop off considerably. You may only get a 100K or less signing bonus.
After the 5th round you are probably not getting a guaranteed contract and are not making a ton of money
NFL rookie minimum is about 500k.
Majority of players in late rounds are out of the league in two years.

Conversely,

Practice squad players make a little over 100K minimum but some make more depending on the team.
They get to work out with actual professional coaches, trainers and players.
They are learning the Pro system and live as a pro while they can take this opportunity to improve their play and status.
You can be picked up by any team off a practice squad, which improves your ability to get onto a roster as opposed to a team using a valuable draft pick.

Tony Romo, Arian Foster, Jason Peters, James Harrison, Danny Woodhead, and Danny Amendola all were on practice squads at one time. It is not impossible even if it is not frequent.

First and second round picks have all the reason to come back. A middle round pick has a decent payout but not much is going to change between 3 and 4 or 5 and 6. Balance all this with coming back to play one more year in college.

Personal issues?
What are the risk of playing? You are not being paid for that risk.
Insurance policies are for realistic high picks…potential late round picks are not likely getting insured.
Will you continue to be motivated to keep playing one more year while looking ahead? (Remember, it doesn’t matter how you think players should be motivated).
How good is the team? How good are the coaches, trainers and over all staff? (Bama is different than Tulsa). Sometimes, a player has to decided if playing another year for a poor team is worth more than 100K a year to practice with professionals.
Staying one more year does not automatically increase your draft status....it is not as simple as stay and get more.

Like it or not…agree or not…many players want to be pros. They may absolutely love Miami but their dream is still to be a pro. I know a lot of you hate players leaving early but no one can balance these factors for the players.
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Extremely well said
 
Smart folks play the percentages. Like any Bell Curve, there are exceptions on each end.

You have a bout a 3 our of 4 chance of improving yourself - resulting in a significantly higher contract offer - and it only costs one year of your life.

It's not like many last very long in the NFL anyway. Those that do last for several years, are exceptions to the vast majority.

I really don't follow other teams, but we've had some players make some real, dumbass decisions.

And the "family needs money" BS? They've made it this far, they'll get by another year.
 
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