As usual, it's a combination of a lot of things. This board, and really this world, has a big problem with things being other than purely black and white. The vast majority of life happens in a gray area. IMO, and I'm no expert, here we are:
1. The OL is getting very little run push. This is the main problem, IMO. Last year's line was generating much more push than this one. We were in the Top 5 in anyone's "run push" metrics last year. Now we're in the 40s. We were also in the Top 10 in yards before contact last year. Basically the same thing, how much push are you getting? This year it's outside the top 100
2. Why is #1 happening? It's partly because of the personnel, and it's partly because of the scheme. If I'm a DC, I know exactly what this offense is trying to do to me. So I'm going to load the box between the tackles and make you beat me doing something else. I'm not going to let you push me in the interior of my defense, I'm going to beat you with numbers. We are totally devoid of any creativity in the run game, we haven't adapted one iota since last year. Teams now have 20+ games of film of us doing essentially the same thing, well no **** it's probably not going to work very well.
3. Teams are more willing to dedicate more resources to stop the run because we don't have Cam Ward and dangerous pass catchers anymore. Pretty self explanatory here.
4. However, we do NOTHING to punish teams for this. Yes, Beck is not Ward. No ****. But Beck is plenty capable of running a play-action pass in short-yardage situations. I've parroted this 100 times at this point, so forgive me if you've read this before but it bears repeating: In the last five full football games, we have thrown the ball ZERO TIMES, let me repeat that, ZERO TIMES in a 2nd and short (3 or less) or 3rd/4th and 2 or less. One more time. Since halftime of the FSU game, we are approaching THIRTY plays where we had a 2nd and short (3 or less) or we had a 3rd/4th and short, which I define as 2 to go or less. 2nd and 3 or less, 3rd/4th of 2 or less. We have run the ball literally every single time. Every one. Does everyone understand what an advantageous situation a 2nd and 2 is for an offense? The entire playbook is at your disposal. So what do we do, 30 times in a row? Turn and hand it to a back. Guess what, guys? If my stupid *** can see this, what do you think the guys getting paid $1M a year are seeing?
5. The combo of Martinez/Fletcher is >>> the combo of Fletcher/Brown. I don't think this is an insanely big part of the problem, but we have downgraded the talent. Jordan Lyle has been, frankly, awful. Maybe it's injury, I don't really care what it is, we're talking about reasons why the run game is suffering, he's one. He's averaging 3 yards a carry. So we have a kid from North Dakota State as our 1B back. Inexcusable. Fletcher is a good player, but the combo last year was superior to the one this year.
To me, you put all this in a blender...the downgrade of the QB (as expected), the downgrade of the backs (somewhat surprising, but factual), the downgrade of the *RUN BLOCKING* of the OL (they are pass blocking their asses off), and the absolute complete ineptitude to the point it's almost comical of the offensive coaching staff, you get this. But at 75% of the way through the season, you think we'll do anything different? Nahh. We got this.
One last point, to the people saying we only run duo into the A-gap, put those folks on ignore. It's categorically false. A lot of what Dawson said in his rant a couple weeks ago was true. We run other running plays. Sometimes they don't go where they're designed to go, and frankly other times our fans just pretend like they don't happen so we can all ***** about the A-Gap. We run into the A-Gap a TON. We did last year as much as anyone in America too. But it's not all we run, by a longshot. However, if you're 40th in run push and 100th in yards before contact, maybe scale it back a touch? Run one (1) toss sweep, and see the opposing DC spontaneously explode into dust from surprise?
