Recruiting is truly a crapshoot.

[motorcitycane]

Whats good CIS.

Spent some of today looking through past recruiting rankings. 2010-2019 kids as the years go on im starting to believe that recruiting is a crapshoot.

Looking at the amount of kids who were not even serviceable, let alone stars, for their college programs ranked in the top 20 of their position groups is alarming.

Landing the highly ranked classes that we all want isn’t the only thing. It’s trulya game of hitting on your evaluations.

2010:
If we had a class of
#1 QB Phillip Sims
#4 RB Mack Brown
#5 RB Jordon James.
#3 WR Darius White
#4 WR Markeith Ambles
#1 TE Xavier Grimble
#2 TE Gerald Christian
#2 DT Taylor Bible
#4 DT Ashton Dorsey
#4 DE Corey Miller
#6 DE Alfy Hill
#3 OLB Corey Nelson
#6 OLB Tevin Jackson
#1 MLB Jeff Luc
#2 MLB Khairi Forty
# 6 CB Demetrius Wright
# 4 CB John Fulton
#9 CB Dior Mathis
#8 CB Adrian White
#2 S Demar Dorsey
#6 S Nick Dew

We’d have celebrated the #1 class scream “we back” only to wind up 4-8 with straight jags.

You can do the same with any class really.

I actually believe Miami has done a good job with quite a few evals we just don’t land the players over the years.

Being in the worlds best recruiting grounds helps because there are some players from south Florida that bust but the strike rate is pretty high when you’re talking just talent from the tri-county area.

Im starting to care less on where the team is ranked in recruiting and caring more about whether Miami got the kids they really wanted.

 

[Dwinstitles]

Its evals its all about evals.......just look at who OSU CU Bama LSU go hard after and go after those guys. Those schools are the best in the biz, if u see a high rated prospect by every site and bama osu etc aint coming hard its a red flag to me.

 

[Samson Doyo]

Whatever happened to that Luc kid? He was one of the many “must haves” that top ticked high school.

Go Canes!

 

[cowboycane]

This has been debated to death, and the numbers say that the more highly ranked kids you get, the better the chances you succeed. Your example is true but also unrealistic...unless you're Larry Coker. Odds are if you get a whole class of 4 and 5 star kids, more than half will be starters and impact players. Not a guarantee, but likely.

That said, I like this thread because it got me to go look at the 2010 QB class again and HOLY ****. There were more solid tight ends (Bell, Derby) in the Top 15 than there were solid QBs.

 

[motorcitycane]

This has been debated to death, and the numbers say that the more highly ranked kids you get, the better the chances you succeed. Your example is true but also unrealistic...unless you're Larry Coker. Odds are if you get a whole class of 4 and 5 star kids, more than half will be starters and impact players. Not a guarantee, but likely.

That said, I like this thread because it got me to go look at the 2010 QB class again and HOLY ****. There were more solid tight ends (Bell, Derby) in the Top 15 than there were solid QBs.

That QB class was the probably the worst one of the decade.

Best QB in that recruiting class was probably the Oregon State guy Sean Mannion. He was like the #34 QB.

 

[Shogungts]

This has been debated to death, and the numbers say that the more highly ranked kids you get, the better the chances you succeed. Your example is true but also unrealistic...unless you're Larry Coker. Odds are if you get a whole class of 4 and 5 star kids, more than half will be starters and impact players. Not a guarantee, but likely.

That said, I like this thread because it got me to go look at the 2010 QB class again and HOLY ****. There were more solid tight ends (Bell, Derby) in the Top 15 than there were solid QBs.

Agreed - this is cherry picking busts which of course happen frequently, but if you are consistently landing top ranked players you have a better chance of having better talent overall than teams that don't consistently get top rated players.

 

[cowboycane]

That QB class was the probably the worst one of the decade.

Best QB in that recruiting class was probably the Oregon State guy Sean Mannion. He was like the #34 QB.

what’s crazy is that looking back, I don’t think I was excited about any of them at the time either. Devin Gardner, Jeff Godfrey were probably my favorite, in hindsight. Morris, ironically, ended up as one of the better guys in that class, probably top 5.

 

[Shogungts]

This article has some good research on it and the graphs below show there are definitely outliers, but the overall trend is the better you do in recruiting the more wins you get. Of course when you have good recruiters who are terrible coaches (and vice versa), things can get skewed: https://watchstadium.com/analyzing-...ecruiting-class-rankings-and-wins-07-01-2019/

The is a few years old but does a pretty good job illustrating:

Same graph, but these highlight some of the over and under achievers

And this metric I think was skewed, but from 2015-2018 Miami actually finished a spot a head in total wins in the ACC (2nd) vs recruiting ranking (3rd). I would think if they did this today we would move down. It also shows the absurd gap between Clemson and everyone else.

School	Win Total	Avg. Recruiting Class Ranking (conference rank)	Difference
Clemson	55	10.8 (2)	+1
Miami	34	17.3 (3)	+1
NC State	32	40.0 (8)	+5
Virginia Tech	32	30.3 (5)	+2
Florida State	32	5.8 (1)	-2
Pittsburgh	28	39.8 (7)	+1
Duke	27	48.8 (9)	+2
Louisville	27	33.8 (6)	-1
Wake Forest	25	60.0 (13)	+4
Boston College	24	69.0 (14)	+4
Georgia Tech	24	51.5 (10)	0
North Carolina	24	27.3 (4)	-6
Syracuse	22	55.8 (11)	-2
Virginia	20	57.5 (12)	-2

 

[Shogungts]

Updated the chart for what I am pretty sure is Miami (17th in recruiting with 34 wins) and although we appear to have slightly overachieved in the ACC, we seem to have underachieved overall which seems more in line with our expectations (still better than FSU though!).

 

[BS85]

Updated the chart for what I am pretty sure is Miami (17th in recruiting with 34 wins) and although we appear to have slightly overachieved in the ACC, we seem to have underachieved overall which seems more in line with our expectations (still better than FSU though!).

View attachment 115427

I'd love for Miami, USC, and even Texas to come back and be powerhouses again. So sick of Clemson and Bama.

 

[Shogungts]

I'd love for Miami, USC, and even Texas to come back and be powerhouses again. So sick of Clemson and Bama.

Kind of crazy that Clemson won 2 more games than we even played over that time period.

Also surprised to see that over the time period we had the 20th most wins of any team and that included the year we lost 58-0 to Clemson (2015), a year we went 7-6 (2018) and we lost at least 3 games every other year.

 

[337CaneNation]

Every class (like someone said already) will have it's bust.. AND a lot of the time these bust happen because the player's want to play the coat tail game (follow other top player's basically) and fell into a situation where they don't fit with that program is doing and they become a bust.. NOW (like someone else also said too) when a kid is ranked high and the main programs aren't knocking their door down is a definite red flag..

I look at our CANES, we have had our own bust but over the years, I think the coaching contributed more to our bust then player's just being horrible player's!! Our coaching was horrible..

 

[cowboycane]

I'd love for Miami, USC, and even Texas to come back and be powerhouses again. So sick of Clemson and Bama.

Would be nice to see some teams outside the ******* Deep South. Would love to see Washington/Oregon and SC get right on a consistent basis. Miami, Texas, Michigan, Nebraska...just mix it up for ****’s sake.

 

[mossmadness]

Whats good CIS.

Spent some of today looking through past recruiting rankings. 2010-2019 kids as the years go on im starting to believe that recruiting is a crapshoot.

Looking at the amount of kids who were not even serviceable, let alone stars, for their college programs ranked in the top 20 of their position groups is alarming.

Landing the highly ranked classes that we all want isn’t the only thing. It’s trulya game of hitting on your evaluations.

2010:
If we had a class of
#1 QB Phillip Sims
#4 RB Mack Brown
#5 RB Jordon James.
#3 WR Darius White
#4 WR Markeith Ambles
#1 TE Xavier Grimble
#2 TE Gerald Christian
#2 DT Taylor Bible
#4 DT Ashton Dorsey
#4 DE Corey Miller
#6 DE Alfy Hill
#3 OLB Corey Nelson
#6 OLB Tevin Jackson
#1 MLB Jeff Luc
#2 MLB Khairi Forty
# 6 CB Demetrius Wright
# 4 CB John Fulton
#9 CB Dior Mathis
#8 CB Adrian White
#2 S Demar Dorsey
#6 S Nick Dew

We’d have celebrated the #1 class scream “we back” only to wind up 4-8 with straight jags.

You can do the same with any class really.

I actually believe Miami has done a good job with quite a few evals we just don’t land the players over the years.

Being in the worlds best recruiting grounds helps because there are some players from south Florida that bust but the strike rate is pretty high when you’re talking just talent from the tri-county area.

Im starting to care less on where the team is ranked in recruiting and caring more about whether Miami got the kids they really wanted.

But you’ve cherry picked the busts from the Top Rated players.

Recruiting is also more about stacking chips than anything else. Bama and OSU and company aren’t elite because they hit on every highly rated recruit. But they get so many of them at each position, that they are going to hit with some at each position.

If you have me Top 10 players at every position each recruiting cycle. But no evals. Just a computer randomly picking the Top 10 players for me. Do you really think at the end of the 4 year cycle, I wouldn’t be fielding a team of elite talent?

 

[Ethnicsands]

Whats good CIS.

Spent some of today looking through past recruiting rankings. 2010-2019 kids as the years go on im starting to believe that recruiting is a crapshoot.

Looking at the amount of kids who were not even serviceable, let alone stars, for their college programs ranked in the top 20 of their position groups is alarming.

Landing the highly ranked classes that we all want isn’t the only thing. It’s trulya game of hitting on your evaluations.

2010:
If we had a class of
#1 QB Phillip Sims
#4 RB Mack Brown
#5 RB Jordon James.
#3 WR Darius White
#4 WR Markeith Ambles
#1 TE Xavier Grimble
#2 TE Gerald Christian
#2 DT Taylor Bible
#4 DT Ashton Dorsey
#4 DE Corey Miller
#6 DE Alfy Hill
#3 OLB Corey Nelson
#6 OLB Tevin Jackson
#1 MLB Jeff Luc
#2 MLB Khairi Forty
# 6 CB Demetrius Wright
# 4 CB John Fulton
#9 CB Dior Mathis
#8 CB Adrian White
#2 S Demar Dorsey
#6 S Nick Dew

We’d have celebrated the #1 class scream “we back” only to wind up 4-8 with straight jags.

You can do the same with any class really.

I actually believe Miami has done a good job with quite a few evals we just don’t land the players over the years.

Being in the worlds best recruiting grounds helps because there are some players from south Florida that bust but the strike rate is pretty high when you’re talking just talent from the tri-county area.

Im starting to care less on where the team is ranked in recruiting and caring more about whether Miami got the kids they really wanted.

You said the word. It’s not a ’crapshoot.’ It’s a skill-set. Evals.

keep in mind, Miami had at Q from 80s - early 90s: Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny T., Steve Walsh, Craig Erickson, Gino Toretta.

our DL went with jerome brown, cortez kennedy, russell maryland, warren sapp, jimmy jones in a short span of time.

we rolled out ed reed, Phillip buchanon and mike rumph, then came back with sean taylor and antrel rolle, then jennings. Meriweather, kenny phillips....

The talent can be gotten for coaches who know how to evaluate.

 

[NJshoreCane]

If i'm reading your OP correctly, you said Top 20 at each position group.
There are 10 position groups x 20 players at each position.
You list 22 busts out of 200 players. That's an 11% "bust-rate", or an 89% "non-bust" rate.
I would think if you chart the players in the 20-40 grouping at the 10 positions, the bust-rate would increase considerably.

I agree with eval's, but you have to hit on some of these highly ranked players.
Especially D-line and QB.

 

[motorcitycane]

If i'm reading your OP correctly, you said Top 20 at each position group.
There are 10 position groups x 20 players at each position.
You list 22 busts out of 200 players. That's an 11% "bust-rate", or an 89% "non-bust" rate.
I would think if you chart the players in the 20-40 grouping at the 10 positions, the bust-rate would increase considerably.

I agree with eval's, but you have to hit on some of these highly ranked players.
Especially D-line and QB.

There were plenty more kids that bust I just picked a few of the top 20. Seems like on average 5 or so of the top 20 kids manage to even be serviceable.

This isn’t a does star rankings matter thread. They clearly do and the data supports that. But landing them isn’t a guarantee for success. UF had high recruiting clases in the 2010s with high draft picks and still went 4-8 twice.

That’s why I said when Miami lands a top 20 kid my hope is that he’s just going to be serviceable based on the data. If he’s a star then great! But so many of those kids never become that from every recruiting class.

 

[RedSquare]

Updated the chart for what I am pretty sure is Miami (17th in recruiting with 34 wins) and although we appear to have slightly overachieved in the ACC, we seem to have underachieved overall which seems more in line with our expectations (still better than FSU though!).

View attachment 115427

run a proper linear regression and post the errors, residuals, etc. and let's see what all of that looks like

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Would be nice to see some teams outside the ******* Deep South. Would love to see Washington/Oregon and SC get right on a consistent basis. Miami, Texas, Michigan, Nebraska...just mix it up for ****’s sake.

The NCAA has a hard-on on private schools for some reason. They hammered USC before trying to kill Miami. Baylor is still waiting on its penalties even though its been 4 years since Briles. I have a feeling the NCAA will hit them hard.

Clemson's assistant basketball coach stated UNEQUIVOCALLY that the football team cheats. Even Bama fans don't pretend that Bama doesn't pay players. Texas might make a comeback but I think they will always have the problem of billionaire boosters meddling in the program. Saban has the juice to tell them to f#ck off so he doesn't deal with that.

 

[cowboycane]

The NCAA has a hard-on on private schools for some reason. They hammered USC before trying to kill Miami. Baylor is still waiting on its penalties even though its been 4 years since Briles. I have a feeling the NCAA will hit them hard.

Clemson's assistant basketball coach stated UNEQUIVOCALLY that the football team cheats. Even Bama fans don't pretend that Bama doesn't pay players. Texas might make a comeback but I think they will always have the problem of billionaire boosters meddling in the program. Saban has the juice to tell them to f#ck off so he doesn't deal with that.

Yeah you're right, I get it. But doesn't change the fact that the more power in this sport concentrates in that one conference filled with absolute **** heads and morons, the more boring it gets.

Would be nice to see some teams from actual cities, some teams from different regions, etc. Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State can all get ****ed too though.