RECRUITING CLASS RANKING: PORTAL+ SURGE 19-

roly2324

Redshirt Freshman
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You are really jumping through hoops to justify a historically poor recruiting class (by initial ranking) for Miami.

It was bad.

Miami needed to go to the portal just to make up for two of the past four classes being as poor as they were. For comparison...Miami's recruiting ranking this year was as bad as that 2015 class that had Terrence Henley, James King, Evan Sherriffs, etc. Yeah, it had Jaquan Johnson, Sheldrick Redwine, RJ McIntosh, and Michael Jackson...2019 will have his fair share of those types, too...but its a terrible class by any metric. The fact Miami had to hit the portal as hard as they did shows what kind of poor recruiting it has had over YEARS, not just this one. 2015 was 27th, 2016 was 22nd...2017 and 2018 were good to very good classes...but here we are, 2019, back in the deep 20s. These portal gems don't augment THIS classes failures...they help augment previous ones. We'll be digging in the portal fixing this year's class in 2020, 2021, 2022.
I agree... The recruiting class was not good in an of itself. Yet no other team in the top 30 had 4 guys even come.through the portal. At most they had 2 impact players. We had :

Bolden
Martell
Martin
Hill
Osborn
Kennedy

And probably Phillips as high impact players

(Nnoruka I'm pegging as average per his request). So Miami's portal talent cannot be dismissed when taken in aggregate with the recruiting class. Many of those portal guys are projected to play and probably start ( Hill, Bolden, Osborn, Kennedy maybe Martell and Nnoruka). You have to take the portal into account because it will give us a COMPLETELY different look next year.
 

brcane1

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I agree... The recruiting class was not good in an of itself. Yet no other team in the top 30 had 4 guys even come.through the portal. At most they had 2 impact players. We had :

Bolden
Martell
Martin
Hill
Osborn
Kennedy

And probably Phillips as high impact players

(Nnoruka I'm pegging as average per his request). So Miami's portal talent cannot be dismissed when taken in aggregate with the recruiting class. Many of those portal guys are projected to play and probably start ( Hill, Bolden, Osborn, Kennedy maybe Martell and Nnoruka). You have to take the portal into account because it will give us a COMPLETELY different look next year.
I know we're hammering Nnoruka's value for no fault of his own, but you got to stay methodologically consistent!
 

Dan E. Dangerously

This board...it's my note
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Give me their names
I don't want to derail roly's thread more than I already have, and it's not my intent to come across as a dick. My initial comments were mostly just a reaction to this ridiculous blog post on CanesWarning, which reads like a 911 truther analyzing the impact of jet fuel on steal beams.


But, there have been a few threads on this topic here as well:






I just feel that trying to shoehorn the impact of these transfers into our recruiting class is wasted energy, God bless anyone that wants to do it. It seems to me that it makes more sense to view their impact as you would "hidden yardage" in a game (and being grateful for it), rather than a justification for boosting your offensive stats after the fact.
 
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roly2324

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I don't want to derail roly's thread more than I already have, and it's not my intent to come across as a dick. My initial comments were mostly just a reaction to this ridiculous blog post on CanesWarning, which reads like a 911 truther analyzing the impact of jet fuel on steal beams.


But, there have been a few threads on this topic here as well:






I just feel that trying to shoehorn the impact of these transfers into our recruiting class is wasted energy, God bless anyone that wants to do it. It seems to me that viewing their impact as "hidden yardage" in a game (and being grateful for it), rather than a justification for boosting your offensive stats after the fact.

That thread you posted shows exactly why the Canes Warning article was flawed. @brcane1 correctly adjusted it ( I included the link and he explains how the Canes Warning article was total garbage). The question everyone had though was what if we added Portal for everyone and Not just Miami? Turns out the top 15 saw some shuffle among themselves, maybe 2-3 spots difference with the Portal players they added but no one saw such a huge jump as Miami did. We literally went from 28th in recruiting to 19th RIGHT NOW. Everyone else I thin max was 3 spot gain. That is why the portal is such a huge deal in this class be cause Manny made it. huge deal after such a sub par class. If/when we add Phillips we land at 16th in the nation with a shot at 15th if we land Phillips and Braun. Oh and btw.. if we land braun that is another high impact starter that will play and get lots of burn at UF.
 
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This is in fact thanks to @brcane1 'a research that showed that we had a much better aggregate class than everyone was giving us credit for. One of the big issues though was that Miami's ranking was inflated due to the fact that we were not adding up the Portal additions for other teams. So I actually took the time today to do the Top 29 teams in there 247 Composite Rankings and this is what I got when you add all the players that came through the Portal.

Georgia
Eli Wolf (.7778 )-àConnor McIntee (.7781)

Oklahoma
Jalen Hurts ((97)-àRyasn Hilinski (.9695)

Florida

Jonathan Greenard (91)-àAnthony Solomon (.9137)

Auburn

Jay jay Wilson (89)à Jalen Wydermyer

Tennessee

Aubrey Solomon –(95)->Mazi Smith (.9536)
Deangelo Gibbs. –(87)-> Brandon Hill (.8710)

Florida State

Ryan Roberts (85)-> Skylar Loving Black (.8506)

Nebraska

Darrion Daniels (92)-> CJ Clark

Ohio State:
Justin Fields ( 1.00)--- Bo Nix (.9857)

NC State

Tabari Hines (86)--àNathaniel Beal (.8601)
Levi Jones (90)-àShammond Cooper (.90270)

1. Alabama- 317.50
2.Georgia – 309.20
3.Texas---- 287.02 (
4.OU- 285.61 (P)
5.Texas A&M--- 285.46
6.LSU--- 284.06
7.Florida--- 278.37
8.Tennesee---278.27
9.Oregon 277.98
10.Michigan-277.15
11.Clemson-275.55
12.Auburn—273.67
13.Ohio State-272.34
14.Penn State- 270.67
15.Notre Dame-258.56
16.Florida State- 254.65
17.Washington- 253.15
18.South Carolina 248.99
19. Miami-248.24
20.Nebraska- 247.70
21.USC--- 243.51
22.Stanford-242.58
23.Ole Miss-238.11
24.Arkansas-237.17
25.Mississippi State-235.81
26.Perdue-224.72
27.Virginia Tech- 224.01
28.NC State- 221.66
29.Wisconsin-219.51


So what happens if we add Phillips ( Like everyone believes we will do)? Miami ends up with 255 Points and is 16th in the nation right in front of FSU.
If we Add Phillips and Braun? Miami would have 261.63 and that would give us a top 15 class in the nation...


So it looks like AT WORST OUR CLASS ENDS UP 16TH once Phillips is Official !

@brcane1 @Roman Marciante

Well, College Football News (CFN) has the U's 2019 recruiting class (including transfers) at No. 3 (UF ranked at No. 10), lol. I like it, although that may be stretching a little bit. Read the write up: https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/02/top-ten-2019-recruiting-class-rankings-if-you-include-transfers
 

thegrove

Freshman
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Nov 6, 2016
Messages
440
So people are “reaching” but then you say “Manny saved us”

Agreed with your post though of course. Nothing wrong with highlighting the details of what we’ve been going through though. We obviously got a lot better because of the portal (class was an epic failure) so I don’t think it’s “reaching” really.
Reaching? Seen the 2020 247 rankings yet? The U is #3. Manny is the MAN!
 

armstead98

Redshirt Freshman
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Nov 7, 2011
Messages
169
Here's a simple way to look at this recruiting season without having to recreate formulas that are mostly BS anyway.

We had the 3rd highest average prospect ranking in the ACC (88.25), just barely behind Clemson & FSU (89.5). But it was also the second smallest class in the ACC with just 17 signees, so because of volume it was 4th ranked overall. We got good HS players but not quite enough of them. That's 100% fair/accurate.

Separately but also true, out of teams in the ACC I think you'd be hard pressed to say any improved more on the field next season because of all the transfers with experience at the college level. That helped fill in the gaps short term, even if long term we did not accomplish what was needed on the recruiting trail. The Hill/Bogle swaps and Martell signing are case in point. Bogle would have been better long term, but Hill is likely gonna make a bigger impact game 1 vs. the florida.

For a transition year in tough circumstances they did well to salvage what could have otherwise been a true dumpster fire with no positives.
 
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We failed miserably in Dade this year.Gotta stop letting the Nayquan Wrights of the world get away. Guys like that bring more to the program than just talent.
 

Shogungts

Junior
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Nov 3, 2011
Messages
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I don't want to derail roly's thread more than I already have, and it's not my intent to come across as a dick. My initial comments were mostly just a reaction to this ridiculous blog post on CanesWarning, which reads like a 911 truther analyzing the impact of jet fuel on steal beams.


But, there have been a few threads on this topic here as well:






I just feel that trying to shoehorn the impact of these transfers into our recruiting class is wasted energy, God bless anyone that wants to do it. It seems to me that it makes more sense to view their impact as you would "hidden yardage" in a game (and being grateful for it), rather than a justification for boosting your offensive stats after the fact.
I was going to post this in a new thread, but then I saw this post and thought that I might suffer the rather of Dan (just kidding )

College Football News did a combined ranking and they are definitely feeling our class:

3. Miami Hurricanes
Here’s the call – at least for this list. Great transfers going to work out at a better percentage than great high prospects recruited on pure speculation.

Miami had an okay overall recruiting class of high school guys – but it wasn’t amazing.

Jeremiah Payton is a great-looking receiver, Keontra Smith and Christian Williams are good-looking defensive backs, and the pass rushers are coming in with a few excellent ends. Even so, the class is a big bag of whatever. The coaching situation had something to do with it, and Manny Diaz didn’t have any time to work, and … Miami has become the place for the hot transfers to go.

It’s not quite like when the Heat got LeBron and Bosh, but there was a pipeline of talent about to help make Miami amazing.
Take this class, and this team, and then add the superstar transfers to the mix. Proven talents with a little experience like the guys Miami landed are automatic four-star recruits, and some would be in the five-star range at this point.

As is, Miami’s class is probably just outside of the top 25. Now add S Bubba Bolden – a four-star recruit for USC in 2017. He’s going to soon be one of the team’s defensive leaders with the NFL upside to be special.

Go ahead and add Bolden’s former teammate out of Las Vegas, Ohio State QB Tate Martell. He was a fringe five-star recruit before, and next year he’ll be the fired up starter to lead the attack – if he’s not ruled eligible this year.

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter


TATE MARTELL
✔@TheTateMartell


right back like we never left...

I’M A HURRICANE!
🙌🏼
🌴

41.3K
12:14 AM - Jan 16, 2019
13.1K people are talking about this


KJ Osborn was a two-star wide receiver recruit in 2015. Put him in that four-star category of a get now after catching 96 passes for 1,490 yards and 12 touchdowns as an explosive target for Buffalo over the last few years.

And it keeps going.

Asa Martin was a superstar recruit for Auburn last year, and now the running back took his talents to South Beach.

Trevon Hill was a nice recruit for Virginia Tech, and now he’s a massive prospect for Miami after making 11.5 sacks and 94 tackles in his 29 games of work.

Don’t blow off that Tommy Kennedy is a grad transfer from Butler. He’s a starting offensive tackle who should find a job right away, and UCLA transfer Chigozie Nnoruka – a two-star prospect in 2016 – will likely find a role early on after proving himself with 46 tackles with two sacks and eight tackles for loss in 2017.

And sometimes, part of the offseason is helped by other factors, too.

If all that new talent coming wasn’t enough, Miami got back Jeff Thomas, a star who’d easily be in the top five among the prep wide receivers in the current crop of recruits.

Miami’s No. 1 target averaged 18 yards per catch with 937 yards and five touchdowns on 52 catches, but he transferred to Illinois – and then came back after Diaz was hired.

 

hialeahjohnny

Quality Control Assistant
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Feb 1, 2017
Messages
109
Great work but can I provide a counterpoint? I think rating it top16 is WAY optimistic. There’s no doubt Miami has more talent than it has in maybe a decade with the portal transfers. But I’d say recruiting classes are judged 3-4 years later. Not only that but every incoming freshman in a typical class is eligible to play.
What limits our class from being top 15 is that some of our transfers will have to sit out for a year. And then, how many of our guys will only play for 1 year? I’m not saying anything new, but a recruiting class full of 1 year guys is not the same as getting 3-4 year guys. Manny did what he had to do but this is a solid class low on numbers, with some projects on the O Line, and patched together by a bunch of transfers, many of whom will have to contribute from Day 1 to make an impact. Not a true Top 16 or 15 class.
I hear your point loud and clear but I will add that regarding transfers, our staff has had the ability to evaluate what they've done against FBS (much P5) competition. (Kennedy is an FCS transfer and I don't believe he's the plug and play starter that many expect). That isn't to say anyone should ever live and die by the Portal just as you shouldn't have the same number of JUCO and HS recruits on a roster (Mississippi State has had some fair success reaping JUCO talent but ultimately what has it got them?)

My concluding point is that with the guys that Miami has taken that are going to be able to play next year, their value is more quantifiable than your average recruit (including blue chips) because we are evaluating them based on their productivity at the FBS level. This is to say that we are adding contributors with a low bust-rate, mostly at positions of need (a factor that is taken into account in 247's Class Rankings) although obviously you are only gaining a year or two or three (with some) of that man's play compared to four (or five years in S&C and development).
 

BoxingRobes

Junior
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Messages
3,626
I agree... The recruiting class was not good in an of itself. Yet no other team in the top 30 had 4 guys even come.through the portal. At most they had 2 impact players. We had :

Bolden
Martell
Martin
Hill
Osborn
Kennedy

And probably Phillips as high impact players

(Nnoruka I'm pegging as average per his request). So Miami's portal talent cannot be dismissed when taken in aggregate with the recruiting class. Many of those portal guys are projected to play and probably start ( Hill, Bolden, Osborn, Kennedy maybe Martell and Nnoruka). You have to take the portal into account because it will give us a COMPLETELY different look next year.
I'm not dismissing Miami's work in the portal (and its not over, Phillips is coming)...but that work takes place outside of what happened in 2019, IMO.
 

calleochocane

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Messages
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I hear your point loud and clear but I will add that regarding transfers, our staff has had the ability to evaluate what they've done against FBS (much P5) competition. (Kennedy is an FCS transfer and I don't believe he's the plug and play starter that many expect). That isn't to say anyone should ever live and die by the Portal just as you shouldn't have the same number of JUCO and HS recruits on a roster (Mississippi State has had some fair success reaping JUCO talent but ultimately what has it got them?)

My concluding point is that with the guys that Miami has taken that are going to be able to play next year, their value is more quantifiable than your average recruit (including blue chips) because we are evaluating them based on their productivity at the FBS level. This is to say that we are adding contributors with a low bust-rate, mostly at positions of need (a factor that is taken into account in 247's Class Rankings) although obviously you are only gaining a year or two or three (with some) of that man's play compared to four (or five years in S&C and development).
Agreed. I followed that post up by saying it’s fair to say that our talent infusion is definitely Top 15 - even higher considering these are tried and true players, like u stated - but to call it a Top 15 class also, imo, masks the problems Miami had with this class, failures even, with the HS kids. Not putting it on Manny, but even he is reevaluating what they’ve been doing, including the short time he’s been HC.
 

skeeter

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We failed miserably in Dade this year.Gotta stop letting the Nayquan Wrights of the world get away. Guys like that bring more to the program than just talent.
Failed Miserably Dade = True
'19 was worst year in dade in a while= Also True
 
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hialeahjohnny

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Agr

Agreed. I followed that post up by saying it’s fair to say that our talent infusion is definitely Top 15 - even higher considering these are tried and true players, like u stated - but to call it a Top 15 class also, imo, masks the problems Miami had with this class, failures even, with the HS kids. Not putting it on Manny, but even he is reevaluating what they’ve been doing, including the short time he’s been HC.
Yup, I read the next post after I had sent mine; well thought out. I like the conversation and moving forward I'm curious to see how the recruiting industry incorporates the presumed increase in transfer activity into their rankings.

While someone like Nnoruka is a one and done guy, Asa Martin as a 2020 player is more or less no different than a JUCO player signed next year's cycle. They're both eligible to play in 2020 and Martin will have three years of eligibility like a guy who only spent a year in junior college. At the moment, one is processed in his class and the other is not, I want to see them both quantified although I agree weighting is hokey at best at this point and years spent requires consideration.

Branching off and focusing on Manny, I'm curious to see if another P5 school ever has the same single class success in the portal as he had this year. As another poster mentioned it played out like Manny was ready to take full advantage of the opportunity moreso than everyone else (like the ESP last year) but going forward everyone will be strapped in with a plan of attack. In that sense, maybe it does behoove the industry to keep things separate, although the Asa Martin example I mentioned is still eating at me.

I'm rambling now, I apologize for the lack of brevity, folks.
 

mirvin88

All-ACC
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True.. but it's also true that hauling in top 15 classes and having the Blue Chip ratio at around 50% helps your program win big. Which is why with the new coaching addition , having this class not be a dud and actually complementing #Storm18 nicely was so important. Manny is about to pull in the 16th class in the nation overall and probably 15th in he gets Braun. That is how you don't fall off the cliff.
2 teams within the blue chip ratio didn't even make a bowl game last year. Piss poor coaching.
 

westcoastcanes

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If you are going to add transfers in, shouldn’t you also subtract transfers out? I don’t expect that to alter things all that much, but it would seemingly create a more accurate picture. Where are we (and those around us) minus Ezzard and what’s his name the giant midget?
 
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