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Recruiting: Chess vs Checkers

mossmadness said:
Clemson’s classes were not deep with elite players.

But the top end of their classes weren’t just 4* players with a player average closer to 3* than 5*.

The top end of their classes were *elite* with like 5* guys and 4* players that were close to being 5*.

This allowed them to field an elite 2 deep that could compete with Alabama on the field.
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... and they were elite at key positions that make a difference (e.g., QB, DT).
 
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We’re going to have some players rise and become 4 stars, but that’s not good enough. We need to land some blue-chip guys before the end of August. Need some momentum heading in to the season.
 
bobbydigius said:
I will take your word on the 80s and 90s. I was born in 81 and when we won our 3rd title in 89 I still didn’t speak English or know what football was…. I have heard otherwise but like I said I wasn’t around back then.
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Most seem to remember how they performed after they were developed ... and indeed we had stacked rosters. But it's easy to forget how they were viewed coming out of high school.
bobbydigius said:
In terms of Butch, my point was that he was a monster and a perfect example of elite recruiting and evals and that it wasn’t just evals. As you said, he identified Taylor early and locked him up.
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mossmadness said:
Sure. Which is why we need 4* classes, so we are above them in recruiting.

If we just land a 3* heavy class, we are just another 3* team in the ACC.

Then you’re banking on a TCU horseshoe type season just for the right to get raped by an SEC team.
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The class isn’t done. They will land more 4* kids and likely 5* kids. This is on top of last years class.

Tcu horseshoe type season is better than Miami dropping to FIU types and Miami had a higher ranked roster than TCU.
 
90scane said:
The class isn’t done. They will land more 4* kids and likely 5* kids. This is on top of last years class.

Tcu horseshoe type season is better than Miami dropping to FIU types and Miami had a higher ranked roster than TCU.
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A BYU 1984 season is better than Miami losing to FIU.

That’s besides the point. The question is how viable a path is that?
 
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mossmadness said:
A BYU 1984 season is better than Miami losing to FIU.

That’s besides the point. The question is how viable a path is that?
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I don’t understand why this is so hard. Unless you have a pretty brilliant coach, you just need dudes. Mario needs dudes. And every study shows your chances of having enough dudes to win big correlates to your recruiting ranking.

This isn’t 1998, or even 2008, anymore. The recruiting services are pretty accurate (and no, they aren’t perfect, and yes, some are better than others, that’s why you use the composite).

You’d think 20 years of our coaches trying to outsmart the room would be enough to get through to some of yall.
 
i don't know if anybody has mentioned this ... but the coaching matters ... we can take the 3stars, but the coaching is the equalizer ... do we have that? idk yet
 
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STG said:
You can't take 10+ 3 stars in a class or multiple classes and compete at an elite level. The data supports that 100%. Below are just a few teams that we see at the top year in and year out.

Alabama has taken 8 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 2 per class.

Ohio State has taken 12 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 3 per class.

Georgia has taken 22 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 5.5 per class.

Clemson has taken 24 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 6 per class.

Right now we have 11 3 stars committed. Last year we signed 7. We have to keep the average per class to 7 at worst based on the data just to potentially be in the convo with the big boys.
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shannon-sharpe-pointing-with-hands-i04851swmtn5au9q.gif
 
STG said:
You can't take 10+ 3 stars in a class or multiple classes and compete at an elite level. The data supports that 100%. Below are just a few teams that we see at the top year in and year out.

Alabama has taken 8 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 2 per class.

Ohio State has taken 12 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 3 per class.

Georgia has taken 22 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 5.5 per class.

Clemson has taken 24 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 6 per class.

Right now we have 11 3 stars committed. Last year we signed 7. We have to keep the average per class to 7 at worst based on the data just to potentially be in the convo with the big boys.
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We have room.
 
The thing I can’t figure out, and nobody really can explain, is why there’s such a precipitous drop off between this year’s class and last year’s class(and even Mario’s recruiting classes at Oregon for that matter). Has there been a change in philosophy regarding Mario’s recruiting approach? Has something dramatically changed with our NIL? Has complacency already set in? What’s really going on here?
 
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You can recruit like this (lots of 3 stars) after a 10 win season because people will believe a coach knows what he's doing and is looking for players that fit his system. When a coach is filling his class with 3 stars after a 5 win season, it gives the perception that the wheels are falling off.

The problem with the "wait til December" narrative is that it essentially pins hopes on UM having a winning record. What happens if we have another 5 win season? When you gave a scheme-focused HC, each season can be looked at in isolation because you can believe that improving one or two key positions (like QB and WR) could turn a 8 win season into a conference championship run. When a HC is only known for recruiting, then the overall class rank matters A LOT and he needs to stack talent across the board. One horrendously bad season can turn off recruits, and then it snowballs. You get a couple mediocre classes in a row and its over because the HC isn't capable of out scheming the opponent and there isn't a talent advantage. Th[BGCOLOR=initial]e good news is that the HC will generally have accumulated enough talent that a scheme focused HC should be able to do a lot with it. [/BGCOLOR]

[BGCOLOR=initial] Unfortunately- believe it or not - there are a few schools that are dumb enough to fail with a "program builder" HC then replace him with another "program builder HC" instead of a scheme focused HC that can get the most out of the talent on the roster. I feel bad for fans of those types of programs.[/BGCOLOR]
 
Rellyrell said:
LMAO….gotta love CIS
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This thread is turning into Canes Tears! I guess that we have forgotten how Mario addressed the last two classes and how he and his sfaff(s) have updated the talent level on this team, and how he has flipped rooms.
Give the man time and let him work in the darkness. We, except for a blessed few here have no idea what is happening behind closed doors.
The quieter the better!
 
786Cane said:
This thread is turning into Canes Tears! I guess that we have forgotten how Mario addressed the last two classes and how he and his sfaff(s) have updated the talent level on this team, and how he has flipped rooms.
Give the man time and let him work in the darkness. We, except for a blessed few here have no idea what is happening behind closed doors.
The quieter the better!
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I fear you're missing the point. You're using past accomplishments to offset current situation. In those past classes, we didn't front load 10 "solid" contributors. If what we had was a bit more balanced, everyone would be onboard with your statement. But, you can't pay many here to believe that they are telling higher ranked players to hold off committing while we accept commitments from contributors first. Which means, we probably don't have them yet. They shouldve thrown the fanbase a bone by now. They gotta know we're all scratching our heads.
 
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jdg3158 said:
Mario and Team are playing chess. Manny played checkers.

(1) For the last 10 years we’ve been trying to build relationships and get players at IMG and St Thomas only to strike out. Guys that get drafted. Now we are building those pipelines - chess. Same with other Top local programs.

(2) Stop looking at just stars. Yes the 5 stars many are amazing and pan out but between the 3 and 4 it’s not the same. Not to mention South Florida 3 stars are often better than advertised.

(3) Listen to @Coach Macho - he knows his stuff. He sees ALL these kids. Give credit where credit is due and he says this new kid has ELITE feet and skill. Kid also sprouted up. Relax.

(4) We have an unlimited class to take - lets get our local South Florida kids and then hunt outside and attack the other states.

(5) This can’t be overlooked - our coaches are getting these kids on campus - looking at them, seeing them in pads, seeing their bodies and how they develop, testing them, etc.. Making REAL evaluations, in person and not just relying on recruiting site rankings. That is something we didn’t do a lot in the past. We also have Alonzo in house and that can’t be overlooked.

(6) Lastly this is what Butch did. Our greatest recruiter ever. Look at his teams and finding gems others overlooked. Not to mention recruiting for Mario in Oregon was very different than Miami. Oregon does not produce a lot of talent and gems like South Florida. He had to recruit a bit different. We have the luxury of a massive talent pool to look at.

Chess versus Checkers
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I have no idea how this class is going to turn out.
However, I do know it’s not 1997 anymore, I seriously doubt the amount of over looked players are anywhere near what it was back then.
So far, in my opinion this class is underwhelming.
However, I have no idea, I don’t watch these kids play in HS.
Perhaps, Mario and Alonzo have found a dozen overlooked ball players whom were offered by the likes of West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech, which Bama, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson passed on due to their inferior evaluation departments and we struck gold.
But I doubt it.
 
bobbydigius said:
I say that because Mario didn’t just become a 1st time HC. At Oregon he recruited at a top level and while he didn’t disappoint by any means, he didn’t over achieve either. As I stated in my post, outside of OL, I don’t see any evidence he is elite at evals. That is relevant in this thread because it is suggesting that he is and that us having this many 3 stars isn’t concerning.

Now that doesn’t mean he is terrible at evals just that there is reason to be concerned about some of these takes. I love some of our 3 star takes but some are head scratchers and just making a ridiculous statement that he is cooking with some secret ingredients and that it’s chess not checkers is some Gator Tears type logic.
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Well, I think people need to understand that this is a much bigger rebuild of the culture than we thought.

Secondly, it is quite clear on what Mario's recruiting approach is. He's locking in lower rate players with high ceilings that fit the culture. I feel like many of our fans are unrealistic of the recruiting process wanting the Al Golden top 5 class in June. If all we were recruiting were 3-star recruits, then you would have a point. However, we've probably had more 5-star recruits on campus this year than in the last 5 and maybe 10 years combined.

Mario is recruiting the big fish. People need to be patient and wait. I'm not even concerned if we don't have as many top 200 committed before the season starts, because what's going to make or break the 2024 class is the performance on the field this Fall. That's the bottom line. Mario and the staff know this.
 
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