Recruiting: Chess vs Checkers

[bobbydigius]

That's what's everyone is missing. It's too early. None of the "evaluations have hit the field yet. The problem is we don't have a history or track record of Mario's' (or Alonzo's) evaluations.

You have to put a stake in the ground and make your evaluation offers early. The alternative is the Manny Diaz strategy of going after "whales" and at last minute, if not enough of them (or any) commit, scramble for reaches. We tried that and it didn't work out too well.

What most forget is that the stacked rosters from the 80's and early 90s were mostly from the same pool of 3*s and lower 4*s. There were few highly regarded national recruits. That's why these JJ and Butch are so highly regarded as evaluators.

And I don't want to hear any nonsense that recruiting have changed. Everyone has always known where the studs were. What's changed is sorting through the larger pool just below them. We had an advantage of a large pool locally where we can establish relationships early. Now that has gone national. If anything, it makes evaluations (and subsequent development) even more important.

The first quote: I agree you plant your stake early, I just think there are too many evals chances being taken this cycle.

Second quote: I don’t believe that, I think that is a misnomer to differentiate Miam from other programs. Reality is that in the early 80s to 90s the overall recruiting landscape was way way different because communication lines were so much more suppressed. I don’t know what our rankings were. Even later under Butch the rankings were nowhere as sophisticated as they are now but I do see people run out with that same misnomer on how the roster was all 3 stars and a couple 4s and that is verifiably false.

Butch was an elite recruiter and probably the GOAT evaluator. So yeah, he hit on some crazy evals such as Vilma, Reed Shockey and PBuch. That said he got the big fish as well. People forget how Damione Lewis was all world out Texas. You had DJ, Dre, Wilfork, Geathers, Sikes, Sands, Rolle McGahee and more. Even players like Sean Taylor coming out of Gulliver got plenty of attention from big time schools. Even Ken Dorsey was All USA Today honorable mention and offers from SEC schools.

That said as I stated, times have changed. Back then there were more diamonds in the rough because communication was so wide spread. Some kids couldn’t get a highlight together nor had the channels to get it in the right hands. Nowadays a good highlight tape can spread like wild fire. Sure there will always be those gems but it’s not what it used to be.

 

[The U is back to work]

Mario and Team are playing chess. Manny played checkers.

(1) For the last 10 years we’ve been trying to build relationships and get players at IMG and St Thomas only to strike out. Guys that get drafted. Now we are building those pipelines - chess. Same with other Top local programs.

(2) Stop looking at just stars. Yes the 5 stars many are amazing and pan out but between the 3 and 4 it’s not the same. Not to mention South Florida 3 stars are often better than advertised.

(3) Listen to @Coach Macho - he knows his stuff. He sees ALL these kids. Give credit where credit is due and he says this new kid has ELITE feet and skill. Kid also sprouted up. Relax.

(4) We have an unlimited class to take - lets get our local South Florida kids and then hunt outside and attack the other states.

(5) This can’t be overlooked - our coaches are getting these kids on campus - looking at them, seeing them in pads, seeing their bodies and how they develop, testing them, etc.. Making REAL evaluations, in person and not just relying on recruiting site rankings. That is something we didn’t do a lot in the past. We also have Alonzo in house and that can’t be overlooked.

(6) Lastly this is what Butch did. Our greatest recruiter ever. Look at his teams and finding gems others overlooked. Not to mention recruiting for Mario in Oregon was very different than Miami. Oregon does not produce a lot of talent and gems like South Florida. He had to recruit a bit different. We have the luxury of a massive talent pool to look at.

Chess versus Checkers

Is that you Lou Cristobal?

 

[NJshoreCane]

Doesn't that screenshot also prove that more 3 Stars get drafted than 4 and 5 stars together?

It’s percentages.
Percentage wise, no.

There are 3600 (high 3-stars) out there that will be drafted though.

 

[NJshoreCane]

If all this is relating to the Miami ‘24 recruiting cycle, Isn’t this discussion a little pre-mature?

We stand at #28 with 0/3/11 (5*/4*/3*)
Yes, we could bomb and wind up with a 0/8/15-type class (good for #20 in ‘23), but does anyone really think that’s going to happen?

Most “in the know” here think we’ll get at least (1) 5*. There’s a good number of 4 stars on our radar as well.
With a bump here and there and us getting our bigger fish, it’s not a pipe dream to think we wind up with (1) 5*, (13) 4*, and (12) 3*.
That was good enough for top 10 last year.

OK, it’s July.
LFG.

 

[ghost2]

The real question re: stars and evals is - how many of our current 3 stars are still 3 stars on NSD?

 

[sstcane]

There are quite a few that may get a bump based on their Sr season. I agree that 6-8 should be the max 3* that end up in the class with a few 5* and 12-15 4* players with a bunch of top 100 players. We need to get to at least 9 wins this season with a bowl victory IMO.

 

[ristwasdown]

Mario has been given more than any other Miami head coach and to show for it we have 5-7 and a 7-8 rated class. Now we are looking at a 31st ranked class while the gators are 3-4 and Noles are ranked preseason to 5. Show me something Mario. I am not betting on the come again.

Don't disagree on the first part, but Mario has been here for one year, comparing to Norvell isnt exactly a sound argument. We can compare to Florida, what we're the rankings last year even after a 5-7 season? It'll all works itself out, even if that means cutting ties eventually, which we know is gonna be a while

 

[Number1CanesFan]

Here is the thing though… Mario has been proven to be an elite recruiter which to me is selling a kid on a program/vision and connecting with said kid to get his signature. Evals are separate to me and I’m not calling Mario a slouch but how has he proven, outside of OL, that he is an elite evaluator?

I’m not saying he is trash because he is way way better than anything we have had and he has more/better resources but what proof is there that he is elite? What can we run on that shows more often than not he will see a player that the high majority just miss on?

We have multiple kids in this class where no one else sees what he sees. Day will be an interesting one as he is in LSU’s backyard. Why have they not taken notice? Of course Mario could prove to be an elite evaluator in time here but I haven’t seen anything yet to prove that is all and I’m confused by the blind faith. Actually, that’s a lie, I’m not confused, I think it’s just a page out of the playbook, I’m just pointing out that we are attributing something that has yet to be proven.

This, "I haven't seen anything yet is a bit overblown." Do you expect a freshman 4-star or even 5-star to start this year? Francis will and maybe Samson mid year. So, there isn't going to be a lot of noise about a 3-star or even 4-star until his 2nd or 3rd year.

My point is those evaluations have already paid off if you've been paying attention. Cooper is one from Mario's 1st class at Miami. He's likely a starter at RG this season. We are also hearing positive rumblings from Moten on the DL and McCoy on OL. Colbie Young was a 3-star transfer. So, that's 4 of the 5 3-stars from the 2022 class who have or will progress into a role that helps the team win this year or next.

In 2023 we have heard that Kinsler, Spencer, and Pullium are better than advertised. I also believe Emory Williams will be another undervalued player who accels. We'll find out about Tinilau in a couple of years. So that leaves Jackson Carver and Antonio Tripp who we haven't heard much about. We'll know more about these guys in 2024 and 2025.

It takes time for all players to develop. We won't know whether these guys will become positive contributors until their junior year. Then we can judge whether a player's evaluation as a recruit projected into a significant contributor to the team.

Lastly, 4-5 of those 3-star recruits will earn a 4-star before their season is over. So, all this panic from fans is just about recruiting bragging rights in June ala the gator.

The biggest thing is to watch is how Mario closes.

 

[01Canes]

The real question re: stars and evals is - how many of our current 3 stars are still 3 stars on NSD?

It's a fair question. I'd go with Wheatley-Humphrey, Pruitt, and Thomas rising to low 4* status, But even though that makes the class look a little better on paper for those who care about overall class ranking more than average rating per player, that still doesn't change our outlook on how we fare among the Top 100 recruits in the country.

To me, the more important questions are:

- How many Top 100 players will we land?
- How will we fare at the premium positions: QB, WR, OL, DL, CB?
- If we have a surprisingly great season, how many of these current 3*'s get pushed out in favor of 4* and 5* players?

 

[TheEye]

Come August I can start worrying. July is the money month. Top 15 before Sep. Top 10 by NSD.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

You can't take 10+ 3 stars in a class or multiple classes and compete at an elite level. The data supports that 100%. Below are just a few teams that we see at the top year in and year out.

Alabama has taken 8 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 2 per class.

Ohio State has taken 12 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 3 per class.

Georgia has taken 22 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 5.5 per class.

Clemson has taken 24 total 3 stars in there last 4 classes combined. An average of 6 per class.

Right now we have 11 3 stars committed. Last year we signed 7. We have to keep the average per class to 7 at worst based on the data just to potentially be in the convo with the big boys.

Can't argue against this logic. Here is a frustratingly simple way to consider the bottom of the class:

Three-star guys tend to be 3* guys because they don't have enough exposure, haven't played much football, have dealt with injuries in HS, play football against particularly weak competition, lack athleticism, lack size for their position, lack production, and/or are very technically "raw", such that most big P5 schools don't seriously recruit them. And when a consensus of P5 programs and evaluation services treat a kid like a priority, they typically end up a 4*/5* by the end of the recruiting cycle. Yes, some specialists (kickers/punters/LS) or players at positions that sometimes get devalued by the services (C, OG, NT, ILB), which need to be taken from time to time, don't get the bump to 4*, and offers matter more for those types. That said, most of the 3* players are developmental bets, high-floor/low-ceiling, or "limited data" types for the reasons stated.

So it is a lower risk proposition to limit the number of traits/development/low-ceiling/project players to 7 per class (which will be somewhere between 25%-30% of the class most years), hope you get lucky on a few of those lottery tickets, and make certain you are at least getting the highly recruited 3* at the undervalued positions. This way, even if you don't get lucky and the 3* don't turn out to be contributors, it's not a significant enough portion of the class to torpedo it so long as the blue-chip kids sufficiently develop at their average clip. To do otherwise is essentially bucking the consensus, which only makes sense if the consensus has proven themselves to be wrong (the stats throughout this thread show that's not the case) or you believe yourself and your staff to be better at evaluating than the consensus (which remains to be seen, but thinking you're the "smartest guy in the room" is a perilous position to take in a room full of professionals).

 

[mossmadness]

Have you looked at the ACC lately?

Clemson and FSU…then a bunch of below average recruiting classes. Heck, even FSU has been using the portal to prop up their team of late.

Sure. Which is why we need 4* classes, so we are above them in recruiting.

If we just land a 3* heavy class, we are just another 3* team in the ACC.

Then you’re banking on a TCU horseshoe type season just for the right to get raped by an SEC team.

 

[NorthEastCane]

The first quote: I agree you plant your stake early, I just think there are too many evals chances being taken this cycle.

Second quote: I don’t believe that, I think that is a misnomer to differentiate Miam from other programs. Reality is that in the early 80s to 90s the overall recruiting landscape was way way different because communication lines were so much more suppressed. I don’t know what our rankings were. Even later under Butch the rankings were nowhere as sophisticated as they are now but I do see people run out with that same misnomer on how the roster was all 3 stars and a couple 4s and that is verifiably false.

Butch was an elite recruiter and probably the GOAT evaluator. So yeah, he hit on some crazy evals such as Vilma, Reed Shockey and PBuch. That said he got the big fish as well. People forget how Damione Lewis was all world out Texas. You had DJ, Dre, Wilfork, Geathers, Sikes, Sands, Rolle McGahee and more.

Most that you are highlighting were all on the same team (2000-2002), the 2001 being arguably the most talented in history, that's more an anomaly than a suggestion of a strategy that was followed.

If you take a longer view 1980-1994, there were fewer national recruits than our results would indicate. Of course, there was Lester Williams, Jerome Brown, Alonzo Highsmith and Jesse Armistead, but most others were good but not as highly regarded, notably some were recruiting Jim Kelly as an LB, Warren Sapp was a TE out of high school. Many others went through position changes to fit into JJ's system.

The mantra at the time was "turn DBs into LBs, LBs into edge, if DTs didn't have a quick first step move them to OL". After Butch left, other coaches we've had tried similar changes, but the player didn't have the skills to pull it off. Again, missed evaluations. The only one that seemed to work was Sam Shields.

Even players like Sean Taylor coming out of Gulliver got plenty of attention from big time schools.

Sean Taylor blew up nationally during his senior year. By the time the bag schools came around to kick the tires Butch had him locked up. If anything, that an example of knowing your local market, doing your evaluations, and establishing relationships early.

Even Ken Dorsey was All USA Today honorable mention and offers from SEC schools.

That said as I stated, times have changed. Back then there were more diamonds in the rough because communication was so wide spread. Some kids couldn’t get a highlight together nor had the channels to get it in the right hands. Nowadays a good highlight tape can spread like wild fire. Sure there will always be those gems but it’s not what it used to be.

I wouldn't call them diamonds in the rough. That implies developing someone into something that didn't exist previously. Similar to what Shannon tried to do with I believe Demetri Stewart. I look at it as more under the radar. I agree there's a lot more information out there on recruits but the relative percentage of studs to lower tier is fairly constant. You still have to filter through the data and make your own assessments.

At this point all we can say is we need to see it on the field until we have confidence their evaluations.

 

[mossmadness]

Clemson’s classes were not deep with elite players.

But the top end of their classes weren’t just 4* players with a player average closer to 3* than 5*.

The top end of their classes were *elite* with like 5* guys and 4* players that were close to being 5*.

This allowed them to field an elite 2 deep that could compete with Alabama on the field.

 

[bobbydigius]

This, "I haven't seen anything yet is a bit overblown." Do you expect a freshman 4-star or even 5-star to start this year? Francis will and maybe Samson mid year. So, there isn't going to be a lot of noise about a 3-star or even 4-star until his 2nd or 3rd year.

My point is those evaluations have already paid off if you've been paying attention. Cooper is one from Mario's 1st class at Miami. He's likely a starter at RG this season. We are also hearing positive rumblings from Moten on the DL and McCoy on OL. Colbie Young was a 3-star transfer. So, that's 4 of the 5 3-stars from the 2022 class who have or will progress into a role that helps the team win this year or next.

In 2023 we have heard that Kinsler, Spencer, and Pullium are better than advertised. I also believe Emory Williams will be another undervalued player who accels. We'll find out about Tinilau in a couple of years. So that leaves Jackson Carver and Antonio Tripp who we haven't heard much about. We'll know more about these guys in 2024 and 2025.

It takes time for all players to develop. We won't know whether these guys will become positive contributors until their junior year. Then we can judge whether a player's evaluation as a recruit projected into a significant contributor to the team.

Lastly, 4-5 of those 3-star recruits will earn a 4-star before their season is over. So, all this panic from fans is just about recruiting bragging rights in June ala the gator.

The biggest thing is to watch is how Mario closes.

I say that because Mario didn’t just become a 1st time HC. At Oregon he recruited at a top level and while he didn’t disappoint by any means, he didn’t over achieve either. As I stated in my post, outside of OL, I don’t see any evidence he is elite at evals. That is relevant in this thread because it is suggesting that he is and that us having this many 3 stars isn’t concerning.

Now that doesn’t mean he is terrible at evals just that there is reason to be concerned about some of these takes. I love some of our 3 star takes but some are head scratchers and just making a ridiculous statement that he is cooking with some secret ingredients and that it’s chess not checkers is some Gator Tears type logic.

 

[bobbydigius]

Most that you are highlighting were all on the same team (2000-2002), the 2001 being arguably the most talented in history, that's more an anomaly than a suggestion of a strategy that was followed.

If you take a longer view 1980-1994, there were fewer national recruits than our results would indicate. Of course, there was Lester Williams, Jerome Brown, Alonzo Highsmith and Jesse Armistead, but most others were good but not as highly regarded, notably some were recruiting Jim Kelly as an LB, Warren Sapp was a TE out of high school. Many others went through position changes to fit into JJ's system.

The mantra at the time was "turn DBs into LBs, LBs into edge, if DTs didn't have a quick first step move them to OL". After Butch left, other coaches we've had tried similar changes, but the player didn't have the skills to pull it off. Again, missed evaluations. The only one that seemed to work was Sam Shields.


Sean Taylor blew up nationally during his senior year. By the time the bag schools came around to kick the tires Butch had him locked up. If anything, that an example of knowing your local market, doing your evaluations, and establishing relationships early.


I wouldn't call them diamonds in the rough. That implies developing someone into something that didn't exist previously. Similar to what Shannon tried to do with I believe Demetri Stewart. I look at it as more under the radar. I agree there's a lot more information out there on recruits but the relative percentage of studs to lower tier is fairly constant. You still have to filter through the data and make your own assessments.

At this point all we can say is we need to see it on the field until we have confidence their evaluations.

I will take your word on the 80s and 90s. I was born in 81 and when we won our 3rd title in 89 I still didn’t speak English or know what football was…. I have heard otherwise but like I said I wasn’t around back then.

In terms of Butch, my point was that he was a monster and a perfect example of elite recruiting and evals and that it wasn’t just evals. As you said, he identified Taylor early and locked him up.

 

[jsy]

Do not stop looking at the stars.
It’s the most important thing to look at it.
There are no teams that are an exception to that.
And nothing about Mario has ever shown he has some secret talent decoder ring.

Amen
I’ve said multiple times recruiting is like the stock market
A recruit is like a stock and u gotta to hedge your portfolio for the best possible returns
Recruiting is ultimately a crap shoot
However there are multiple data points that clearly shows that the more stars a recruit has the more likely they will be a good player
That’s not to say that a 3 star or lower won’t be good the chance is much lower and that is a indisputable fact
So that is why you have to load up on 4/5 stars to make sure that you have the best chance of landing a top tier portfolio aka roster

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

The real question re: stars and evals is - how many of our current 3 stars are still 3 stars on NSD?

I'd set the over/under of current composite 3* getting bumped to a composite 4* by the end of the cycle at 3.

Pruitt is the closest to 4* range as it stands. I'd say CWH, Shavers, Day, Mack, and Thomas have a fair chance with big years and more offers. Outside chance with OJ just as a STA kid w/ good size. Judd's too far back and QB rankings are the most political. I don't think there's anything Minaya and Russell can do to get a 4th star. And Murray is a kicker, so no.

 

[sfcane2]

Great post. Two additional points-

1. We've witnessed time after time, underrated So. Fla kids shine. Last year the only two south fla 1st round picks Clancy and Flowers were both unheralded coming out. This happens year over year. These aren't your typical 3 stars.

2. We actually have a senior NFL talent evaluation executive involved in the eval process. Zo knows what NFL players look like. This is an immeasurable help.

Finally as Op pointed out it can't be stressed how important establishing pipelines to IMG, Heritage and STA is. We were nowhere before Mario at those schools which churn out so many top players.

 

[Seeker]

The real question re: stars and evals is - how many of our current 3 stars are still 3 stars on NSD?

Take it a step further...At the end of their CFB careers, how many of the 3 stars performed at 4 star level or better. Of course, nobody wants to wait that long, but this is the ultimate judgement on player evaluation.