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Realistic Hiring Targets For A P5 School: A 5 Year Look

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hoops156 said:
Dorsey isn’t leaving he nfl where he’ll get an oc job to be an oc in college and have to recruit, he’s an nfl guy all the way
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He's been pretty much offered the Bills OC job once Daboll gets a HC job either this season or next.
 
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TimeBum said:
Every candidate has negatives. Some are too expensive, some are too inexperienced, some have severe character questions, some wouldn't come out of retirement, some have a habit of losing games they shouldn't. The big knock in Herman is he couldn't win at Texas. I think that is weighted far too heavily in the negative column. As I said before, Texas is weird, they should have a half dozen titles in the last few decades yet they have only one. Something more than coaching acumen is responsible for their struggles. On the plus side, he's a Meyer disciple, a great offensive mind, Texas would foot a large percentage of his salary for a couple years, he's a good recruiter, and he's proven he can win at least at one level (granted it's G5). Most importantly, he's available and wouldnt cost millions to buyout, which is money that could go to a staff. In a way we are lucky he wasn't successful at Texas as I don't think we'd be able to afford a coach of his caliber otherwise.
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I feel like a good coach is a good coach. He rebuilds the culture into a winning one and wins. Texas is resource full. I got issues with Herman losing with big guns.
 
jmccomber5 said:
It’s a bye week and I’ve got time. I took a look at hiring over the last 5 years because I’ve been reading several posts and threads about HC targets for us after Manny is finally fired. I have found it interesting to see the strong opinions around who should be considered and who shouldn’t. Specifically, I’m intrigued by the people who say “we can do better,” especially in relation to candidates like Mario, Clawson, or Stoops (full disclosure: I’m for Mario). The truth is, we likely can’t do much better and it is highly likely that we we will not be able to hire another active P5 HC.

Since 2017, a total of 50 P5 head coaching jobs have become available. I could only find 5 times where an active P5 HC had been hired away from their school: Mel Tucker (‘20), Mike Leach (‘20), Dan Mullen (‘18), Willie Taggert (‘18), and Jimbo (‘18). The majority of P5 schools hire a G5 coach (18 times) or a P5 coordinator (15 times: 9 DC and 6 OC). In fact, there have been more position coaches (6) hired as a HC than a current P5 coaches. Fired head coaches that were not coordinators are another 5. There was one FCS coach hired as well.

Most likely, we will go with a G5 coach or a P5 coordinator. We would have to be an outlier to take a P5 head coach. I know you are sitting there with your turnover chain shirt thinking to yourself “yeah, but this is The U! We have south beach, bro. And no state income tax. And so much talent. It’s a top 12 job according to a bunch of random people in a magazine article!” Other big programs have gone this route, including: Auburn, Tennessee (x2), Texas (x2), and FSU. I chuckle when posters **** on P5 coaches as not being good enough because we likely won’t get one. The “we can do better” moniker is not true. If Mario or any other P5 coach were to come, we would be only the 6th program in 6 years to get a P5 HC. We would be lucky to have them.

I have grown to accept that our next coach will likely be a Napier type coach unless we take a chance on a fired guy like Herman. If we get a P5 coach, it will more likely be someone like Clawson from a smaller school. The only coach that’s taken a lateral job is Jimbo, and we aren’t paying A&M money to do that. Based on the numbers, it will probably come from a group of Mario, BOB, Herman, Malzahn and whoever the best g5 coaches are not named Fickell
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I think you are overlooking coaches currently in the NFL. Schnelly was a fired HC for the Colts and former Super Bowl winning OC. Butch was a Super Bowl winning DC and former Miami assistant.
I would look into the NFL for good candidates.
 
OldhamA said:
He's 40 years old and has been a QB Coach for 8 years.

At what point is he going to get that promotion?
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Maybe after this season, given Buffalo may be a favorite to win the AFC and their QB an MVP candidate.

I'd would call and ask his interest and his price, though.
 
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Our realistic situation is likely something like this... I don't see them going the coordinator route again.

1) Greg Schiano

2) Jamey Chadwell

3) Mario Cristobal
 
AllAboutTheU13 said:
Seems like a boom or bust option. The difference in competition between the Sun Belt and P5 is significant. But he has done an amazing job at Louisiana, and also seems to have some recruiting ties to FL. I would be intrigued.
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Napier seems to be a highly detailed, highly organized coach. He's waiting for the right opportunity, and that may be an $EC job.

Would definitley hope the new AD/Football GM calls and gauge Napier's interest.
 
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JD08 said:
I'm warming to the idea of Herman.
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You should. I live in Austin so I've seen it relatively up close.

Tom Herman inherited a veritable disaster from Charlie Strong. Talent wise, Texas was at its lowest ebb since the late 1990s. They were 5-7 in Strong's last year.

Year 1 was only a one game improvement in the loss column.

Year 2 saw Ellingher begin to start. They lost to Maryland in the opening, and people here were talking about Herman in the way that they do about Manny now. Then they beat USC and the script began to flip. They finished 10-4 that year.

Losses that year:
Maryland 29-34
Okl State 35-38
W Virginia 41-42
Oklahoma 27-39 (Big 12 Championship)

Year 3 saw high expectations but a regression. They finished 8-5 that season. Defensively they did not get better. Still, only two losses were by 10 or more, and the largest loss was by two TDs

LSU 38-45 (which was amongst the national champion's most narrow wins that year)
Oklahoma 27-34
TCU 27-37
Iowa State 21-23
Baylor 10-24

Year 4 expectations were more guarded, and of course it was also a COVID year. Ellingher was a senior. Herman dropped three games, again losing by narrow margins. The OU loss in particular was in OT

TCU 31-33
Oklahoma 45-53
Iowa State 20-23

Honestly, had the OU game gone differently - and it was very close to doing so - Herman would likely have won out the remainder of the 2021 season and would still be at Texas.

In his four years, Herman went 4-0 in bowl games including a win over Georgia in the 2018 season.

Herman was known for being a disciplinarian. The teams did get better and become more talented. It just was a slow and steady process with some regression, and the Texas alumni community had no patience after what took place prior to his arrival.
 
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GojiraCane said:
You should. I live in Austin so I've seen it relatively up close.

Tom Herman inherited a veritable disaster from Charlie Strong. Talent wise, Texas was at its lowest ebb since the late 1990s. They were 5-7 in Strong's last year.

Year 1 was only a one game improvement in the loss column.

Year 2 saw Ellingher begin to start. They lost to Maryland in the opening, and people here were talking about Herman in the way that they do about Manny now. Then they beat USC and the script began to flip. They finished 10-4 that year.

Losses that year:
Maryland 29-34
Okl State 35-38
W Virginia 41-42
Oklahoma 27-39 (Big 12 Championship)

Year 3 saw high expectations but a regression. They finished 8-5 that season. Defensively they did not get better. Still, only two losses were by 10 or more, and the largest loss was by two TDs

LSU 38-45 (which was amongst the national champion's most narrow wins that year)
Oklahoma 27-34
TCU 27-37
Iowa State 21-23
Baylor 10-24

Year 4 expectations were more guarded, and of course it was also a COVID year. Ellingher was a senior. Herman dropped three games, again losing by narrow margins. The OU loss in particular was in OT

TCU 31-33
Oklahoma 45-53
Iowa State 20-23

Honestly, had the OU game gone differently - and it was very close to doing so - Herman would likely have won out the remainder of the 2021 season and would still be at Texas.

In his four years, Herman went 4-0 in bowl games including a win over Georgia in the 2018 season.

Herman was known for being a disciplinarian. The teams did get better and become more talented. It just was a slow and steady process with some regression, and the Texas alumni community had no patience after what took place prior to his arrival.
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So you're saying he beat a ranked team, won 10 games in a season and won bowl games? All three things aren't even possible, are they?
 
GojiraCane said:
You should. I live in Austin so I've seen it relatively up close.

Tom Herman inherited a veritable disaster from Charlie Strong. Talent wise, Texas was at its lowest ebb since the late 1990s. They were 5-7 in Strong's last year.

Year 1 was only a one game improvement in the loss column.

Year 2 saw Ellingher begin to start. They lost to Maryland in the opening, and people here were talking about Herman in the way that they do about Manny now. Then they beat USC and the script began to flip. They finished 10-4 that year.

Losses that year:
Maryland 29-34
Okl State 35-38
W Virginia 41-42
Oklahoma 27-39 (Big 12 Championship)

Year 3 saw high expectations but a regression. They finished 8-5 that season. Defensively they did not get better. Still, only two losses were by 10 or more, and the largest loss was by two TDs

LSU 38-45 (which was amongst the national champion's most narrow wins that year)
Oklahoma 27-34
TCU 27-37
Iowa State 21-23
Baylor 10-24

Year 4 expectations were more guarded, and of course it was also a COVID year. Ellingher was a senior. Herman dropped three games, again losing by narrow margins. The OU loss in particular was in OT

TCU 31-33
Oklahoma 45-53
Iowa State 20-23

Honestly, had the OU game gone differently - and it was very close to doing so - Herman would likely have won out the remainder of the 2021 season and would still be at Texas.

In his four years, Herman went 4-0 in bowl games including a win over Georgia in the 2018 season.

Herman was known for being a disciplinarian. The teams did get better and become more talented. It just was a slow and steady process with some regression, and the Texas alumni community had no patience after what took place prior to his arrival.
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Just to piggyback on this.

2017: 25th ranked class

2018: 3rd ranked class.

2019: 3rd ranked class

2020: 8th ranked class

People say "Oh he couldn't even win the B12." but at least he's won his conference division and lost to Kyler Murray who won the Heisman that year.

In 2018 alone, Texas beat more ranked teams that Manny has in 3 years.

Herman has taken Ls, for sure, but he also has had impressive Ws too.
 
Did he ever get absolutely embarrassed at home by a comparable team and let up 500 yards on the ground ? Lmk
 
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TLOC said:
Would any of you guys take Billy Napier?
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I would in a heartbeat.

He’s smart coach with experience under both Tommy Bowden & Dabo in his early years at Clemson & was an analyst for Saban during their National championship run when they beat LSU for the title in 2011 & came back to Bama as a WR’s coach for 4 years & recruited Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Trevon Diggs & many others.

He’s a smart X’s & O’s offensive guy & has a charismatic personality that resonates well with players. He completely built that ULL program up from the doldrums they only had 1 winning season in the modern era before he got there, they literally only had 2 9 win seasons in their entire program history before him & the last one was in 1993.

He’s also cheap only making just a little over $1.05mill per year at ULL, the only hold up would be how interested he would be because it’s been said that he prefers coaching in the SEC over any other gig, but I’m sure if you offered him enough money he would take quite a few jobs outside of the SEC lol.
 
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AllAboutTheU13 said:
does anyone know Matt Campbell’s situation? Wouldn’t be interested in coming here?
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Contract would be too big to buyout.

He just signed an extension last year that will last until 2028, obviously he probably won’t be at Iowa St for that long, but they gave him a $3million dollar increase, he’s at $4.75mill per as of right now with a $9-10mill buyout.

But his contract is structured to where he could make upwards of $6mill per by 2023-24.
 
Liberty City El said:
I would in a heartbeat.

He’s smart coach with experience under both Tommy Bowden & Dabo in his early years at Clemson & was an analyst for Saban during their National championship run when they beat LSU for the title in 2011 & came back to Bama as a WR’s coach for 4 years & recruited Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Trevon Diggs & many others.

He’s a smart X’s & O’s offensive guy & has a charismatic personality that resonates well with players. He completely built that program up from the doldrums they only had 1 winning season in the modern era before he got there, they literally only had 2 9 win seasons in their entire program history before him & the last one was in 1993.

He’s also cheap only making just a little over $1.05mill per year at ULL, the only hold up would be how interested he would be because it’s been said that he prefers coaching in the SEC over any other gig, but I’m sure you offered him enough money he would take quite a few jobs outside of the SEC lol.
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Good call. He seems a highly organized, highly detailed coach. Young, and players relate to him. Not flashy, he turned down a school-paid new car and would rather drive his older truck (FWIW).

If LSU fires Coach O and offers him, he‘s sitting in a new office in Baton Rouge.

It’s been said he’s waiting for the right job, where the AD and President are aligned with big goals. So, if there’s a new AD/Football GM in place and somehow the pocketbook opens, call and make an $EC-caliber offer.
 
Liberty City El said:
Contract would be too big to buyout.

He just signed an extension last year that will last until 2028, obviously he probably won’t be at Iowa St for that long, but they gave him a $3million dollar increase, he’s at $4.75mill per as of right now with a $9-10mill buyout.

But his contract is structured to where he could make upwards of $6mill per by 2023-24.
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This article is saying that buyout has dropped to $4M now

footballscoop.com

Matt Campbell's new Iowa State contract is extremely coach friendly

From the beginning, Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard realized what he has in Matt Campbell. In 2017, when Campbell showed proof of life by beating No. 3 Oklahoma
footballscoop.com footballscoop.com
 

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