(Re)Building the Roster - Part II

Katzenboyer

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Nov 17, 2015
Messages
1,616
Welcome back. I wanted to post another thread on how Miami can return to its former greatness simply by following a consistent model recruiting on a year-to-year basis. I wanted to look at our past four classes to see how we currently stack up against the model I advocated for in my other thread*, and where we currently still need some work.

*If you haven't checked it out already, see part 1 here. In that thread, I took a look at Clemson's first four recruiting classes under Dabo, and how he set the table to build the Tigers into the monster they are in college football today. I also looked at ND's past five classes, a program I think used the "Clemson model" discussed in the other thread effectively to build a playoff team.

When discussing the model I think Manny should adopt when it comes to putting together his next recruiting classes, I looked at five points of emphasis that are must-dos if we're going to return to college football's elite.
  1. Prioritize Class Size.
  2. Build Both Lines.
  3. Don't Focus on Class Rankings.
  4. Five Stars are a nice bonus; they are not a necessary condition at this point.
  5. Never, ever miss on a position group.
So how do we stack up? Let's take a look.

Number of Signees by Star Ranking

Star Ranking
2016 Class
2017 Class
2018 Class
2019 Class
Three Star or Lower
12​
14​
7​
11​
Four Star
7​
10​
14​
7​
Five Star
0​
0​
2​
0​

Number of Signees by Position

Position
2016 Class
2017 Class
2018 Class
2019 Class
QB
1​
2​
1​
1​
HB
1​
1​
3​
0​
WR
5​
3​
4​
1​
TE
1​
1​
2​
1​
OL
0​
5​
3​
4​
DL
4​
3​
3​
6​
LB
3​
3​
0​
1​
DB
3​
4​
5​
3​
ATH
1​
1​
1​
0​
Total Signees
19​
24​
23​
18​

Let's look at the positive and negative aspects of our last four classes.

THE GOOD
  • Our 2017 and 2018 classes were strong. There were some misses in both of these classes -- our current junior and sophomores -- but both should lay a solid foundation that should help us build a winner in the coming years. While they aren't perfect, the class sizes and the fact that almost every position is represented is a really good thing.
  • Emphasis on Lines. You can see, to some extent, an emphasis on both the offensive and defensive lines. If we want to get back to where we want to be as a program, it starts in the trenches; the last three classes have us pointed in the right direction, although the talent must be upgraded on the offensive line especially (see below).
  • High-level talent. Each class is sprinkled with Top 100 players. These should be our playmakers in the coming years.
  • Mark Richt Deserves Credit. I know there's a sour taste in our mouths because of how he refused to give up the reigns offensively last season. But the guy recruited very well in 2017 and 2018, and we should have a very good team when these guys are our juniors and seniors.

THE BAD
  • The 2016 Class. If you want one huge reason why we're not ready to play at an elite level, look no further than the 2016 recruiting cycle. This is our current senior class; these guys are supposed to be our leaders and the crew that can matchup with the big boys. But it's simply not good enough; there weren't enough guys brought in (19 total), and the focus was on the wrong positions (5 wide receivers brought in, exactly zero offensive lineman). This is the type of class that keeps a program meddling for years. If you want to look at why our current offensive line is a question mark, look no further than this class.
  • The 2019 Class. While it's hard to bring in a good class during a transition year - and Manny did his best to alleviate some of the issues with transfers - this is another poor class: it's small on numbers, it lacks depth at several positions, and the offensive line numbers are inflated by 2-star guys that are major developmental projects (and nothing more) at this point.
  • Too many positions went unaddressed or over-addressed year-to-year. Zero offensive lineman in 2016. Only one true linebacker taken in the past two classes. 12 wide receivers taken 2016-2017. This has led, or will lead to major roster weaknesses, such as the kind we see now with the offensive line and what we'll see next year with our linebacking corps. This is the reason why you need to take at every position, regardless of ranking, every single year; the roster problems that result when you don't have balance in the class can be felt for years.
So, in light of these strengths and weaknesses, what now?
  1. These next two classes MUST have bodies. As mentioned in the other thread, I really hope that Manny sees what a mess the 2019 class turned out to be and focuses on bringing in two large classes in 2020 and 2021. Each should go to the full 25, and there's some leeway to add even more than that with the early-enrollee rules the way they are.
  2. Emphasis must be placed on balance. We simply cannot have circumstances when only one LB is taken over the course of two years. We lose all three of our starters next year, and the guys behind them are unproven. Even worse, there is no depth. This is unacceptable; Miami may not be able to pick and choose its players like it was able to in its heyday, but kids still want to play here. Each class needs EVERY position represented; it's a must.
  3. Our position is strong moving forward, if...the next two classes are strong. Look at the 2017 and 2018 cycles - both share many characteristics that are so important for building the foundation of a program that can compete at an elite level. But the 2019 class was a weak follow-up to those two cycles, and it can be an outlier so long as these next two classes are more like 17-18. I can't emphasize how important this is. If Manny brings in a Top 15 class, with 25 kids in each over the next two years, then 2019 won't hurt too bad. But if we follow up 2019 with another weak effort - and there's no indication that's going to happen - we could be in trouble for the next 4-5 years.
TL;DR: We're not in a position of strength, but this is certainly not going to involve a long rebuild, either. Manny has inherited a pretty good situation, but there are roster weaknesses due to unaddressed recruiting efforts that could hurt us for the next season or two.
 
Last edited:
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Great writeup. Call me overly optimistic but I don't feel so bad about the OL and LBs we currently have. They are all pretty athletic kids that are being coached by guys who have proven they know what they are doing. Might be some growing pains but I like where we're going.
 
Great writeup. Call me overly optimistic but I don't feel so bad about the OL and LBs we currently have. They are all pretty athletic kids that are being coached by guys who have proven they know what they are doing. Might be some growing pains but I like where we're going.
Same here. The portal made the 19 class top 3. Idk if those kids were added or not. Also, we have QBs that will be major upgrades and factors moving forward. I think the fact that 17 and 18 were good, we can have 20-21 similar to those two classes. The trenches have definitely been addressed like no other in reason history. Feel real good about our situation moving forward.
 
Same here. The portal made the 19 class top 3. Idk if those kids were added or not. Also, we have QBs that will be major upgrades and factors moving forward. I think the fact that 17 and 18 were good, we can have 20-21 similar to those two classes. The trenches have definitely been addressed like no other in reason history. Feel real good about our situation moving forward.

Saying the transfer portal made this a Top 3 class in 2019 is a huge stretch.
  • Martell might not win the starting job. He was the #37 overall player in 2017, but it's not like we're getting Trevor Lawrence.
  • Asa Martin is already gone.
  • Tommy Kennedy looks like a JAG.
  • By the time Jaelan Phillips sees the field at Miami, it'll be two years since he played meaningful football. He played in only four games in 2017, missed all of 2018 with concussion injuries, and at one point retired from the game as a result of those injuries. He is nothing close to a sure thing.
  • Chigozie is basically Tito Odenigbo.

Hill and Bolden are the most sure-fire things, but let's stop acting like the transfer portal fixed every issue with the 2019 class. It unequivocally did not.
 
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Saying the transfer portal made this a Top 3 class in 2019 is a huge stretch.
  • Martell might not win the starting job. He was the #37 overall player in 2017, but it's not like we're getting Trevor Lawrence.
  • Asa Martin is already gone.
  • Tommy Kennedy looks like a JAG.
  • By the time Jaelan Phillips sees the field at Miami, it'll be two years since he played meaningful football. He played in only four games in 2017, missed all of 2018 with concussion injuries, and at one point retired from the game as a result of those injuries. He is nothing close to a sure thing.
  • Chigozie is basically Tito Odenigbo.

Hill and Bolden are the most sure-fire things, but let's stop acting like the transfer portal fixed every issue with the 2019 class. It unequivocally did not.
I never said all that. I was just stating what was written by recruiting services about the 19 class. Tate could possibly be the leader already, he’s going to make the starter better that’s for sure. Tate also has a few different elements to his game. So maybe not Lawrence but can bring things that Lawrence can’t and don’t.
 
Firstly, thank you for taking the time to write this up. I’m sure it took some time.

To me, the balance OP alludes to is the biggest key. Think about it like this: there are 22 not ST positions in football, and there are 85 scholarships (21.25 per year on average).

With this, and obvious exceptions to the rule being noted, a class should roughly be put together as a 1-deep roster. Based upon personnel packages and formations, a class should be based on the following:
QB: 1
RB: 1
TE: 1
WR: 3
OL: 5
DE: 2
DT: 2
LB: 3
CB: 2
S: 2

This equals 22 scholarships. Now from here, you adjust the numbers (maybe take 2 RB’s, or 2 TE’s, or 3 CB’s) based on attrition due to graduation, declaring early, or transferring, not to mention some positions (RB) require more depth and it’s ideal to have more on the roster. Obviously it isn’t an exact science, but doing it in this way allows for proper and consistent attrition and little to no roster imbalance.
 
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I never said all that. I was just stating what was written by recruiting services about the 19 class. Tate could possibly be the leader already, he’s going to make the starter better that’s for sure. Tate also has a few different elements to his game. So maybe not Lawrence but can bring things that Lawrence can’t and don’t.

My issue was with this line in your original post

The portal made the 19 class top 3.

It did not, and it's not reasonable to expect the transfer portal to bail us out on a year-to-year basis if we want to build sustainable success.
 
Welcome back. I wanted to post another thread on how Miami can return to its former greatness simply by following a consistent model recruiting on a year-to-year basis. I wanted to look at our past four classes to see how we currently stack up against the model I advocated for in my other thread*, and where we currently still need some work.

*If you haven't checked it out already, see part 1 here. In that thread, I took a look at Clemson's first four recruiting classes under Dabo, and how he set the table to build the Tigers into the monster they are in college football today. I also looked at ND's past five classes, a program I think used the "Clemson model" discussed in the other thread effectively to build a playoff team.

When discussing the model I think Manny should adopt when it comes to putting together his next recruiting classes, I looked at five points of emphasis that are must-dos if we're going to return to college football's elite.
  1. Prioritize Class Size.
  2. Build Both Lines.
  3. Don't Focus on Class Rankings.
  4. Five Stars are a nice bonus; they are not a necessary condition at this point.
  5. Never, ever miss on a position group.
So how do we stack up? Let's take a look.

Number of Signees by Star Ranking

Star Ranking
2016 Class
2017 Class
2018 Class
2019 Class
Three Star or Lower
12​
14​
7​
11​
Four Star
7​
10​
14​
7​
Five Star
0​
0​
2​
0​

Number of Signees by Position

Position
2016 Class
2017 Class
2018 Class
2019 Class
QB
1​
2​
1​
1​
HB
1​
1​
3​
0​
WR
5​
3​
4​
1​
TE
1​
5​
2​
1​
OL
0​
1​
3​
4​
DL
4​
3​
3​
6​
LB
3​
3​
0​
1​
DB
3​
4​
5​
3​
ATH
1​
1​
1​
0​
Total Signees
19​
24​
23​
18​

Let's look at the positive and negative aspects of our last four classes.

THE GOOD
  • Our 2017 and 2018 classes were strong. There were some misses in both of these classes -- our current junior and sophomores -- but both should lay a solid foundation that should help us build a winner in the coming years. While they aren't perfect, the class sizes and the fact that almost every position is represented is a really good thing.
  • Emphasis on Lines. You can see, to some extent, an emphasis on both the offensive and defensive lines. If we want to get back to where we want to be as a program, it starts in the trenches; the last three classes have us pointed in the right direction, although the talent must be upgraded on the offensive line especially (see below).
  • High-level talent. Each class is sprinkled with Top 100 players. These should be our playmakers in the coming years.
  • Mark Richt Deserves Credit. I know there's a sour taste in our mouths because of how he refused to give up the reigns offensively last season. But the guy recruited very well in 2017 and 2018, and we should have a very good team when these guys are our juniors and seniors.

THE BAD
  • The 2016 Class. If you want one huge reason why we're not ready to play at an elite level, look no further than the 2016 recruiting cycle. This is our current senior class; these guys are supposed to be our leaders and the crew that can matchup with the big boys. But it's simply not good enough; there weren't enough guys brought in (19 total), and the focus was on the wrong positions (5 wide receivers brought in, exactly zero offensive lineman). This is the type of class that keeps a program meddling for years. If you want to look at why our current offensive line is a question mark, look no further than this class.
  • The 2019 Class. While it's hard to bring in a good class during a transition year - and Manny did his best to alleviate some of the issues with transfers - this is another poor class: it's small on numbers, it lacks depth at several positions, and the offensive line numbers are inflated by 2-star guys that are major developmental projects (and nothing more) at this point.
  • Too many positions went unaddressed or over-addressed year-to-year. Zero offensive lineman in 2016. Only one true linebacker taken in the past two classes. 12 wide receivers taken 2016-2017. This has led, or will lead to major roster weaknesses, such as the kind we see now with the offensive line and what we'll see next year with our linebacking corps. This is the reason why you need to take at every position, regardless of ranking, every single year; the roster problems that result when you don't have balance in the class can be felt for years.
So, in light of these strengths and weaknesses, what now?
  1. These next two classes MUST have bodies. As mentioned in the other thread, I really hope that Manny sees what a mess the 2019 class turned out to be and focuses on bringing in two large classes in 2020 and 2021. Each should go to the full 25, and there's some leeway to add even more than that with the early-enrollee rules the way they are.
  2. Emphasis must be placed on balance. We simply cannot have circumstances when only one LB is taken over the course of two years. We lose all three of our starters next year, and the guys behind them are unproven. Even worse, there is no depth. This is unacceptable; Miami may not be able to pick and choose its players like it was able to in its heyday, but kids still want to play here. Each class needs EVERY position represented; it's a must.
  3. Our position is strong moving forward, if...the next two classes are strong. Look at the 2017 and 2018 cycles - both share many characteristics that are so important for building the foundation of a program that can compete at an elite level. But the 2019 class was a weak follow-up to those two cycles, and it can be an outlier so long as these next two classes are more like 17-18. I can't emphasize how important this is. If Manny brings in a Top 15 class, with 25 kids in each over the next two years, then 2019 won't hurt too bad. But if we follow up 2019 with another weak effort - and there's no indication that's going to happen - we could be in trouble for the next 4-5 years.
TL;DR: We're not in a position of strength, but this is certainly not going to involve a long rebuild, either. Manny has inherited a pretty good situation, but there are roster weaknesses due to unaddressed recruiting efforts that could hurt us for the next season or two.
On a quick glance, looks like youre wrong on parts of the data.

On OL, we took Tre Johnson in ‘16, then in ‘17 we took donaldson, gaynor, herbert, hillery and dykstra. You probably flipped the 5 and 1 between TE and OL.

Not sure whether there are other mistakes, that just stood out to me.
 
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On a quick glance, looks like youre wrong on parts of the data.

On OL, we took Tre Johnson in ‘16, then in ‘17 we took donaldson, gaynor, herbert, hillery and dykstra. You probably flipped the 5 and 1 between TE and OL.

Not sure whether there are other mistakes, that just stood out to me.

Yeah flipped the TE/OL in 2017. Obviously we didn’t take 5 TEs that class.

Rivals classified Tre as a DL, which is why he is where he is in 2016.
 
Great job again, @Katzenboyer! These threads are excellent. This is one of the things that I could not understand about our last few coaching staffs. Being under the scholarship limit without sanctions is the height of stupidity. It’s almost as if we were self-sanctioning.

I’m glad that Manolo looks like he may be trying to follow the Clemson blueprint. I look forward to us finally playing like the Miami Hurricanes in the next 2-3 years. Thanks again, Canes brother!
 
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Yeah flipped the TE/OL in 2017. Obviously we didn’t take 5 TEs that class.

Rivals classified Tre as a DL, which is why he is where he is in 2016.
The thing is, we didn’t take him as a DL. so not sure that using rivals classification is a good way to assess our recruiting hy position.
 
The thing is, we didn’t take him as a DL. so not sure that using rivals classification is a good way to assess our recruiting hy position.

At some point you have to go with a consistent source of info, which is why I chose Rivals. And Johnson isn’t with the program anymore so it’s a moot point.
 
At some point you have to go with a consistent source of info, which is why I chose Rivals. And Johnson isn’t with the program anymore so it’s a moot point.
Rivals representing consistency is a flawed argument if you are trying to judge OUR recruiting. Rivals can say what they want, but WE took him as an OT. That’s clear.

Agreed it’s moot in his case as he is gone and stunk. But you cannot tell me we skipped the spot that year. We underprioritized it, and took a reach. Equally harmful. Just different.
 
Rivals representing consistency is a flawed argument if you are trying to judge OUR recruiting. Rivals can say what they want, but WE took him as an OT. That’s clear.

Agreed it’s moot in his case as he is gone and stunk. But you cannot tell me we skipped the spot that year. We underprioritized it, and took a reach. Equally harmful. Just different.

I'd argue that taking a single offensive lineman -- and one that at least one of the recruiting services had as a DL -- is absolutely skipping the spot that year.

If you can identify other errors, by all means identify them. But at this point it feels like you're arguing semantics. One offensive lineman in a class is still a miss.
 
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