Katzenboyer
Freshman
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- Nov 17, 2015
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I've been meaning to make this thread for awhile, but haven't had time. Now that I've got a moment (and I touched on this briefly in another thread), I wanted to discuss the model Manny needs to pursue in order to return the Canes to dynasty status.
When the topic of South Florida five-stars come up, two common threads emerge: (1) bags; and (2) Clemson, UGA and Bama. There's nothing we can do about #1, and that's a topic for another thread.
A. The Models
"Success Leaves Clues."
When trying to pick a course in terms of building the roster, I think there are three truly elite schools doing it at a level no one else is at the moment: Alabama, UGA, and Clemson. The SEC teams and the ACC team, in my view, have taken different paths to building the rosters they currently possess. I'll refer to those as the "Bama/UGA" model and the "Clemson" model.
Alabama (and, to some extent, UGA) are outliers. There's no situation in which we build the roster the way Saban can on a year-to-year basis. He's going to go down as the greatest coach in NCAA history, and with that comes special benefits (plus, bags). And UGA is certainly a force on the trail right now, but quite a bit of that has been helped by the fact that Kirby has the Bama "shine" on him, and that the last three years have seen the state of Georgia produce an ungodly amount of high school talent that all grew up rooting for the Bulldogs.* That could continue, but again - I don't think Miami's way forward is pursuing the Bama/UGA model.
*in the 2020 class, the state of Georgia has 9 players ranked in the Rivals Top 100. In 2019, that number was 11 and 10 players were so ranked in 2018. (Just as a note for comparison, Florida -- which had 24 players ranked in the Rivals 100 in 2018 -- has 11 million more people living in the state).
So where do we go from here? I give you, the "Clemson" Model.
B. The Clemson Model - Miami's Best Bet
Clemson right now is destroying it on the recruiting trail. In their last three classes (2017-2019) they've signed 11 five-star players. They are set to add the #1 class this year by a gigantic margin -- currently, they have 5 five-stars committed, and some analysts have them adding as many as five more such players. Oh, and they've won 2 out of the last 3 nattys.
But it wasn't always like this. When Dabo became coach in 2008, he inherited a team that had gone 9-4, 8-5, 8-4 and 6-5 in the previous four seasons. Not a juggernaut by any means. And recruiting wise, beginning in 2010 -- Swinney's first full class -- through 2013, he signed classes ranked #19, #8, #14, and #14. Not exactly stellar.
In fact, his next class - signed in February of 2015 - was not exactly the most elite, either. It ranked #14, according to Rivals. But that class became so impactful because it included Deshaun Watson, who I think is the player who really brought Clemson to the next level and allowed it to step into the juggernaut role it currently posses.
I combed through each of the classes leading to Watson's ultimate signing to determine what Clemson did right, and what Miami might replicate. Here's what I found:
Number of Signees by Position
So, what does it all mean? I think, with the list I've outlined above, Manny needs to use these following guidelines in order to rebuild our depth:
It didn't happen overnight, and I think if any of you are expecting such a turnaround, you're in for a rude awakening. We can win immediately starting next season; but if you think that the roster construction problems can simply be wished away, and that all we need is one class to get to Clemson's level, you're in for a rude awakening.
Which brings me to my next point, which I know I will get flamed for...
C. The Clemson Model in Practice
I think there's one team who recently put into practice a lot of the principles outlined above and had success doing it: Notre Dame.
I know, I know. The Domers. We crushed them last time we played, we hate them, blah blah blah. But you can't argue with results: since 2016, when they went 4-8 (yet somehow still managed to beat us in South Bend), they've won 23 games, beat a good LSU team in the Citrus Bowl, and reached the playoffs last season. Hatred aside, I think the Canes would swap places with those two-year results.
Major changes were afoot with the Irish following that dreadful 2016 season. But the foundation had been put in place for their playoff run last year, and their 10-win season in 2018, when they adopted a strategy similar to what Swinney built at the beginning of his Clemson tenure.
Number of Signees by Star Ranking
Number of Signees by Position
Notice anything about those classes?
I know this is been a long-winded post, so I'll wrap it up. But what I think both of these examples show is that Miami has some work to do to get back into the next tier of teams behind Clemson and Alabama; it's not going to just happen over the course of one class. I think Manny understands this and is focused on depth and filling these classes with guys who can win in the trenches.
That being said, Miami can get back to dynasty-level status as long as it focuses on the BASICS when building the program from the ground up. Fill the classes, prioritize numbers, build depth, and hope some five-star guys like you enough to jump aboard (which is not out of the question, with Cheney, Lingard, Pope, etc. all five-star guys on Rivals). This thing can be a monster within the next few years; the key is not to rush it.
TL;DR: Don't stress about the five stars, and focus on classes that are overall well-balanced in terms of total guys taken and positions represented. It's more important to build the foundation in the first few classes than chase after the Top 25 guys.
When the topic of South Florida five-stars come up, two common threads emerge: (1) bags; and (2) Clemson, UGA and Bama. There's nothing we can do about #1, and that's a topic for another thread.
A. The Models
"Success Leaves Clues."
When trying to pick a course in terms of building the roster, I think there are three truly elite schools doing it at a level no one else is at the moment: Alabama, UGA, and Clemson. The SEC teams and the ACC team, in my view, have taken different paths to building the rosters they currently possess. I'll refer to those as the "Bama/UGA" model and the "Clemson" model.
Alabama (and, to some extent, UGA) are outliers. There's no situation in which we build the roster the way Saban can on a year-to-year basis. He's going to go down as the greatest coach in NCAA history, and with that comes special benefits (plus, bags). And UGA is certainly a force on the trail right now, but quite a bit of that has been helped by the fact that Kirby has the Bama "shine" on him, and that the last three years have seen the state of Georgia produce an ungodly amount of high school talent that all grew up rooting for the Bulldogs.* That could continue, but again - I don't think Miami's way forward is pursuing the Bama/UGA model.
*in the 2020 class, the state of Georgia has 9 players ranked in the Rivals Top 100. In 2019, that number was 11 and 10 players were so ranked in 2018. (Just as a note for comparison, Florida -- which had 24 players ranked in the Rivals 100 in 2018 -- has 11 million more people living in the state).
So where do we go from here? I give you, the "Clemson" Model.
B. The Clemson Model - Miami's Best Bet
Clemson right now is destroying it on the recruiting trail. In their last three classes (2017-2019) they've signed 11 five-star players. They are set to add the #1 class this year by a gigantic margin -- currently, they have 5 five-stars committed, and some analysts have them adding as many as five more such players. Oh, and they've won 2 out of the last 3 nattys.
But it wasn't always like this. When Dabo became coach in 2008, he inherited a team that had gone 9-4, 8-5, 8-4 and 6-5 in the previous four seasons. Not a juggernaut by any means. And recruiting wise, beginning in 2010 -- Swinney's first full class -- through 2013, he signed classes ranked #19, #8, #14, and #14. Not exactly stellar.
In fact, his next class - signed in February of 2015 - was not exactly the most elite, either. It ranked #14, according to Rivals. But that class became so impactful because it included Deshaun Watson, who I think is the player who really brought Clemson to the next level and allowed it to step into the juggernaut role it currently posses.
I combed through each of the classes leading to Watson's ultimate signing to determine what Clemson did right, and what Miami might replicate. Here's what I found:
- Dabo's first two classes were huge. He signed a 24-player class in 2010, and a 29-player class in 2011.
- Depth mattered more than ranking. For every class signed by Clemson 2010 - 2014, players ranked three-stars or lower always made up a majority of the class (see the first chart below).
- Clemson rarely missed on a position. With one exception (see the second chart below), Clemson addressed every position for the first four years of Swinney's tenure.
- Class rankings didn't matter. The classes, as seen below, set the stage for a program that has yet to have less than a double-digit win season since 2011. The depth built in these classes are a big reason why.
- Swinney prioritized the line.
- While Clemson did get its share of five-stars in this time period, they all came in one year - 2011. Out of those four five-star players, only one turned into a true superstar - Sammy Watkins. Out of the other three, one transferred (Mike Bellamy) and two others were solid, albeit unspectacular contributors to their respective teams (Stephone Anthony and Tony Steward).
Star Ranking | 2010 Class | 2011 Class | 2012 Class | 2013 Class |
Three Star or Lower | 15 | 19 | 11 | 13 |
Four Star | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
Five Star | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Number of Signees by Position
Position | 2010 Class | 2011 Class | 2012 Class | 2013 Class |
QB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
HB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
WR | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
TE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
OL | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
DL | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
LB | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
DB | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
ATH | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Total Signees | 24 | 29 | 20 | 23 |
So, what does it all mean? I think, with the list I've outlined above, Manny needs to use these following guidelines in order to rebuild our depth:
- Prioritize Class Size. There should be no excuse; the 2020 and the 2021 class need to have at least 25 players in each. This is even more pressing in light of the fact that we only signed 18 players in the 2019 class.
- Build the Lines. The one thing I pull away from the positional outlay is that Swinney, first and foremost, addressed the offensive and defensive line. He brought big, strong dudes into the program, and the results speak for themselves. Manny should do the same.
- Don't Focus on Class Rankings. Depth and numbers in the trenches matter more than total class ranking. I'm not saying allow for scrubs to commit to the program; I'm saying we need to prioritize based on #4...
- Five Stars are a nice bonus; they are not a necessary condition. Clemson brought in four five-stars in four years (averaging one a season), and three could be considered "misses." It's more important at the early stages to fill the roster; if one of those guys happen to be a five-star, great. But it's not a death blow, at least not at the start.
- Never, ever miss. Each position must be addressed. Even on years where Swinney didn't sign a player at a position, there was usually good reason not to -- the year prior had several players signed at that same position. If Manny wants to start running with the big boys, he can't "skip" a year (like we seem to have tried to do at QB over the past few seasons). Players must be brought in at every position, every signing day, no excuses.
It didn't happen overnight, and I think if any of you are expecting such a turnaround, you're in for a rude awakening. We can win immediately starting next season; but if you think that the roster construction problems can simply be wished away, and that all we need is one class to get to Clemson's level, you're in for a rude awakening.
Which brings me to my next point, which I know I will get flamed for...
C. The Clemson Model in Practice
I think there's one team who recently put into practice a lot of the principles outlined above and had success doing it: Notre Dame.
I know, I know. The Domers. We crushed them last time we played, we hate them, blah blah blah. But you can't argue with results: since 2016, when they went 4-8 (yet somehow still managed to beat us in South Bend), they've won 23 games, beat a good LSU team in the Citrus Bowl, and reached the playoffs last season. Hatred aside, I think the Canes would swap places with those two-year results.
Major changes were afoot with the Irish following that dreadful 2016 season. But the foundation had been put in place for their playoff run last year, and their 10-win season in 2018, when they adopted a strategy similar to what Swinney built at the beginning of his Clemson tenure.
Number of Signees by Star Ranking
| Star Ranking | 2015 Class | 2016 Class | 2017 Class (the 4-8 debacle) | 2018 Class | 2019 Class |
| Three Star or Lower | 11 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 10 |
| Four Star | 13 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| Five Star | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Number of Signees by Position
| Position | 2015 Class | 2016 Class | 2017 Class (the 4-8 year) | 2018 Class | 2019 Class |
| QB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| HB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| WR | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| TE | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| OL | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| DL | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| LB | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| DB | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| ATH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Total Signees | 24 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 22 |
Notice anything about those classes?
- Prioritize Class Size. The Domers' class size was never smaller than 21.
- Build the Lines. ND always took at least 6 guys on the offensive and defensive lines. It was clearly made a priority.
- Don't Focus on Class Rankings. These classes were ranked #11, #13, #13, #11, and #14 respectively. Yet ND has been in the playoff conversation the past two years.
- Five Stars are a nice bonus; they are not a necessary condition. Only one signed.**
- Never, ever miss. Every single class has players at each position, with very few exceptions. And with those exceptions -- on years no players were taken at a respective position -- it either came off a season where a large number of players were signed at the same position the year prior, or the Domers took a large number of players at the position the following year.
I know this is been a long-winded post, so I'll wrap it up. But what I think both of these examples show is that Miami has some work to do to get back into the next tier of teams behind Clemson and Alabama; it's not going to just happen over the course of one class. I think Manny understands this and is focused on depth and filling these classes with guys who can win in the trenches.
That being said, Miami can get back to dynasty-level status as long as it focuses on the BASICS when building the program from the ground up. Fill the classes, prioritize numbers, build depth, and hope some five-star guys like you enough to jump aboard (which is not out of the question, with Cheney, Lingard, Pope, etc. all five-star guys on Rivals). This thing can be a monster within the next few years; the key is not to rush it.
TL;DR: Don't stress about the five stars, and focus on classes that are overall well-balanced in terms of total guys taken and positions represented. It's more important to build the foundation in the first few classes than chase after the Top 25 guys.
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