No disagreement, that’s correct.
In college, there’s a lot of first look then throw/don’t throw, then run, or sometimes go to a second receiver. There’s very little complex defense reading by the vast majority of the quarterbacks. I agree with that.
I only mentioned experience because the whole concept of reading defenses was brought up, and experience might be a bonus in reading them. That’s something a true freshman won’t even have.
Everything else being equal, assuming two people have the same talent for reading defenses, the redshirt freshman will read a defense better than the true freshman. Again, assuming that they have the same “reading defense talent”, then the experience helps.
But is it something that you see in abundance of in college? You’re absolutely right, **** no. Defenses are being read up in the booth, and on the field by the defensive coaches. Very very few college quarterbacks are scanning the field and reading defenses.
There's emerging science behind this topic around QB cognition. It'll be interesting to see what develops the next half decade.
It's really a path dependent situation. Decision-making skills are two-fold - reading defenses to decide where to throw, yes. But also, and separately, understanding pressure and when to change plans. If you stand too long reading the D, you may eat grass. If you bail too early, different issue. So there's a dual process going on of read and think, and sense and change plans. Humans need to follow a logic thread, so it's extremely hard to simultaneously plan to pass downfield and process the change of plan decision logic. That's the breaking point where a QB has to chose path, not just receiver. It's relevant because fractions of a second matter a lot in this dynamic.
Experience reading D absolutely helps. It can help make that decision quicker, which means you get the throw in before the plan had to change. Or got to your third progression faster, same point. But experience with understanding when to pack it in or stick it out also matters, as well as what to do if you have to change plans. The same half second from knowing better whether the route will work or the DE will get to you, that too helps the outcome probabilities. Once you decide to change plans, it's a whole nother skill set. Feet, legs, then run or throw on the run.
There are QBs who are good at one part of this or another. Their coaches can help by maximizing the opportunities to do the thing they're better at doing. It's not always fixable. Kyle Wright wasn't bad at throwing, and probably not worse than everyone at reading. But he was terrible at what to do when plan changing became an issue. He packed it in fast and couldn't recover.
Coaches traditionally spend time trying to talk and explain as if you think vs. react out there, and if someone didn't learn they'd blame study or learning vs. other factors. Modern virtual reality simulations can run you through real time decision-making in a totally different way, and teach / train QBs to feel and react rather than 'think.' I believe Stanford has been using some of this and probably other schools for a few years now.
If you go back to the Gladwell book Blink, the challenge for QBs is that it's possible to both choke and panic on the same play. The remedies for those failures are totally different.