Players leaving early

[bshaw28]

The difference between 2nd round and 3rd round is a lot of money.

The average 2nd round pick earns $2M per year for four years including the signing bonus.

The average 3rd round pick earns $1.375M per year for four years including the signing bonus.

The average 4th round pick earns $1.13M per year for four years including the signing bonus.

Yes - you get paid more the higher you're drafted.

Watch the full draft & count how many times when a Senior gets drafted you hear an Analyst say "I liked his Junior/Sophomore tape better"

Your argument/opinion only considers the most positive outcome for Taylor/Kinchens/Williams if they returned for their Senior Year.

Progression is not linear - you don't just automatically get better every year you play. Losing money by coming back is also a potential outcome.

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

Yes - you get paid more the higher you're drafted.

Watch the full draft & count how many times when a Senior gets drafted you hear an Analyst say "I liked his Junior/Sophomore tape better"

Your argument/opinion only considers the most positive outcome for Taylor/Kinchens/Williams if they returned for their Senior Year.

Progression is not linear - you don't just automatically get better every year you play. Losing money by coming back is also a potential outcome.

Considering Williams is being looked at solely at LB in the league, you don't think coming back for a year to play LB for a year wouldn't have helped JW? Your points about "only considers the most positive outcome" and "progression is not linear" are not lost on me. In the case of Williams, I think it's different than Kam and to a lesser degree LT. Kam wasn't going to move up much at all if he came back - safeties don't get drafted as high as they used to - and probably risked sliding a bit. LT is LT at this point and I don't feel like offending his fan club right now. If JW came back and played LB, I believe the upside far outweighs the potential slippage. If I was a GM (I'm not and I know that I'm not qualified to be one), there's no way I would take him higher than 5th round (if at all) because I would be drafting a complete unknown. I can't be in the minority on this thinking either with regard to passing on him.

 

[ssvir]

Yes - you get paid more the higher you're drafted.

Watch the full draft & count how many times when a Senior gets drafted you hear an Analyst say "I liked his Junior/Sophomore tape better"

Your argument/opinion only considers the most positive outcome for Taylor/Kinchens/Williams if they returned for their Senior Year.

Progression is not linear - you don't just automatically get better every year you play. Losing money by coming back is also a potential outcome.

I'm not saying there are any guarantees of getting better but you only get one bite at the apple and if it were me I would want to be as prepared as possible for the one opportunity I was going to get. These aren't RBs that have limited shelf lives.

 

[bshaw28]

I'm not saying there are any guarantees of getting better but you only get one bite at the apple and if it were me I would want to be as prepared as possible for the one opportunity I was going to get. These aren't RBs that have limited shelf lives.

I actually agree with you that coming back might be the better decision - but I don't think that means leaving early is therefore a bad decision. I think it's a very hard, complex decision for these players to make that that should be looked at from a lot of different angles - but most people act like it's a simple decision.

The way I look at it is - last year 20 Juniors & 11 Seniors were drafted in the 1st RD.

The NFL Drafts on potential, and favors younger players.

Taylor & Kitchens were projected 1st RD'ers going into last year. 1st RD is where the big money is.

LAST YEAR was their big chance to make millions, to take a big bite of the apple, and it didn't happen.

Senior year you get another bite at the apple, but that bite is now smaller. So if it didn't happen last year, why would it this year?

In the end - I think a very large majority of players are basically the same from Junior to Senior years, and don't really move their draft stock much. So if they want to go to the NFL now vs later, what's the big deal?

 

[bshaw28]

Considering Williams is being looked at solely at LB in the league, you don't think coming back for a year to play LB for a year wouldn't have helped JW? Your points about "only considers the most positive outcome" and "progression is not linear" are not lost on me. In the case of Williams, I think it's different than Kam and to a lesser degree LT. Kam wasn't going to move up much at all if he came back - safeties don't get drafted as high as they used to - and probably risked sliding a bit. LT is LT at this point and I don't feel like offending his fan club right now. If JW came back and played LB, I believe the upside far outweighs the potential slippage. If I was a GM (I'm not and I know that I'm not qualified to be one), there's no way I would take him higher than 5th round (if at all) because I would be drafting a complete unknown. I can't be in the minority on this thinking either with regard to passing on him.

I agree with you Williams probably has the most to gain by coming back ans changing to LB. But I don't look at it as an easy cut & dry decision.

The key for Williams would be not just have tape of him playing LB, but have GOOD tape of him playing LB.

Right now he's looked at as a Day 3 pick with potential to make the switch to LB - but he's a project.

If he played LB next year but was just OK/inconsistent - then he'd still be a Day 3 pick with that's a project with potential to make the switch to LB.

On top of that - would Mario want to play him at LB? It seems like we have a bigger hole at Safety next year, and it would be best for the team if Williams stayed at Safety. IMO that would be a conversation they'd have to have, but I don't know if Mario agrees to play him at LB based on that being his best NFL position. Would fans feel it's just as good, or better of a decision for him if he came back but transferred where he can be a full-time LB?

IMO - athletic testing is the best chance for Williams to improve his draft stock. He'll be looked at as a S/LB hybrid project either this year or next, but how athletic he is will determine how high teams will be willing to draft him/take a risk on that project.

 

[E1k]

Must have been a down year for DTs that year? I don’t remember. But when you saw the absurd crop of DTs this last year (Stone, Scott, Breland etc etc) it was like watching a different type of player altogether

Honestly don’t remember fully but i think jalen carter and a dt tbat went to uf was in that class as well..Jalen carter is gonna be a all pro player, and the other guy is good for the bears.

They just had a better foundation of tools than LT, maybe if someone in hs and early college molded him better be could have been what people thought but he played early and in a scheme that only enforced his bad fundamentals even more.

But either way people talk about him like he wasn’t really good for us, yea he wasn’t an all time great but still a really good player that could have a successful nfl career if he works

 

[orange&green84]

Lee sand Cohen, like many others have stated, made sense to leave. I see Lee sticking in the league and getting that 2nd contract. But the others certainly could’ve improved their positions.

 

[E1k]

He has all the measurables to have been a 1st round pick but by most accounts didn't back it up with his work ethic. That perception is something that could have been changed by showing it on the field for another year and another year of maturity.

I'm not wishing him ill will but his decision was stupid from a business sense AND more importantly for what I care about, hurts UM.

I guess you're allowed to have an opinion but others aren't if it disagrees with you.

You really dont care if players stock improved or not lol, its only a stupid decision to u because they didn’t do what made u feel better.

And u clearly dont know **** about football or the business side of it so yea your opinion is stupid lol.

These aren’t just football players, they have to make decisions for whatever they think is right for their life so yea they shouldn’t care if it hurts um or not because um will be here and keep recruiting kids whether they’re a first round pick or udfa

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

I agree with you Williams probably has the most to gain by coming back ans changing to LB. But I don't look at it as an easy cut & dry decision.

The key for Williams would be not just have tape of him playing LB, but have GOOD tape of him playing LB.

Right now he's looked at as a Day 3 pick with potential to make the switch to LB - but he's a project.

If he played LB next year but was just OK/inconsistent - then he'd still be a Day 3 pick with that's a project with potential to make the switch to LB.

On top of that - would Mario want to play him at LB? It seems like we have a bigger hole at Safety next year, and it would be best for the team if Williams stayed at Safety. IMO that would be a conversation they'd have to have, but I don't know if Mario agrees to play him at LB based on that being his best NFL position. Would fans feel it's just as good, or better of a decision for him if he came back but transferred where he can be a full-time LB?

IMO - athletic testing is the best chance for Williams to improve his draft stock. He'll be looked at as a S/LB hybrid project either this year or next, but how athletic he is will determine how high tems will be willing to draft him/take a risk on that project.

All fair points. I remember Isaiah Simmons being drafted really high as a tweener/hybrid LB/S. Cardinals did not pick up his option and traded him to the Giants. I wouldn’t say he has been a bust, but the 7th rounder that he was traded for says a lot. That certainly does not help James.

 

[ssvir]

You really dont care if players stock improved or not lol, its only a stupid decision to u because they didn’t do what made u feel better.

And u clearly dont know **** about football or the business side of it so yea your opinion is stupid lol.

These aren’t just football players, they have to make decisions for whatever they think is right for their life so yea they shouldn’t care if it hurts um or not because um will be here and keep recruiting kids whether they’re a first round pick or udfa

Congratulations on making a post about literally nothing I posted about and then pulling out the loser lines "you don't know football" and "you don't know business" without having any idea of my background.

It's better to say nothing and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. You should memorize this saying.

 

[bshaw28]

All fair points. I remember Isaiah Simmons being drafted really high as a tweener/hybrid LB/S. Cardinals did not pick up his option and traded him to the Giants. I wouldn’t say he has been a bust, but the 7th rounder that he was traded for says a lot. That certainly does not help James.

Yeah - my first thoughts for comparisons are:

Miami guys - Ray Ray Armstrong & Jamal Carter were hybrid type guys that made the NFL but didn't really play much

Isaiah Simmons & Taylor Mays - There were jumbo athletes where it didn't work out great

Mark Barron & Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah - those are S/LB hybrids that worked great

Kam Chancellor - was a 5th RD pick because he was looked at as a jumbo-size S who would have to convert to LB. Then became a HOF level Safety.

I think depending on how you feel about Williams - there's plenty of positive or negative players you could comp him to.

​

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

Yeah - my first thoughts for comparisons are:

Miami guys - Ray Ray Armstrong & Jamal Carter were hybrid type guys that made the NFL but didn't really play much

Isaiah Simmons & Taylor Mays - There were jumbo athletes where it didn't work out great

Mark Barron & Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah - those are S/LB hybrids that worked great

Kam Chancellor - was a 5th RD pick because he was looked at as a jumbo-size S who would have to convert to LB. Then became a HOF level Safety.

I think depending on how you feel about Williams - there's plenty of positive or negative players you could comp him to.

​

Agreed with one point to consider - JW is not good in coverage.
Also, I don't think anyone thought Kam Chancellor was going to be anywhere near as good as he was. I don't disagree with you, simply pointing out that he is definitely an outlier.

 

[bshaw28]

Agreed with one point to consider - JW is not good in coverage.
Also, I don't think anyone thought Kam Chancellor was going to be anywhere near as good as he was. I don't disagree with you, simply pointing out that he is definitely an outlier.

Kam Chancellor is an extreme outlier, no doubt. He also hurt his draft stock by coming back for his Senior year.

My feelings on Williams is - he struggles in coverage compares to most Safeties, but I'm guessing he's better compared to most LB's. I'm assuming he's more athletic than most LB's too - but we'll see at the combine.

He also seems to prefer playing downhill in space, coming up to make big hits. Things that LB's have to do - being more physical in tight spaces, wrap up tackling, getting through the wash, etc. - I feel like that's more where Williams struggles.

I wish him success and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[GojiraCane]

I think they need to worry about their first contract.

It’s not just the money difference in a 5th vs 3rd round contract. Teams are loathe to cut second and third round picks in their first season. Fourth round and below is not a lock to make the roster.

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

Kam Chancellor is an extreme outlier, no doubt. He also hurt his draft stock by coming back for his Senior year.

My feelings on Williams is - he struggles in coverage compares to most Safeties, but I'm guessing he's better compared to most LB's. I'm assuming he's more athletic than most LB's too - but we'll see at the combine.

He also seems to prefer playing downhill in space, coming up to make big hits. Things that LB's have to do - being more physical in tight spaces, wrap up tackling, getting through the wash, etc. - I feel like that's more where Williams struggles.

I wish him success and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Agreed all the way around.

 

[AlexCane]

Kam Chancellor is an extreme outlier, no doubt. He also hurt his draft stock by coming back for his Senior year.

My feelings on Williams is - he struggles in coverage compares to most Safeties, but I'm guessing he's better compared to most LB's. I'm assuming he's more athletic than most LB's too - but we'll see at the combine.

He also seems to prefer playing downhill in space, coming up to make big hits. Things that LB's have to do - being more physical in tight spaces, wrap up tackling, getting through the wash, etc. - I feel like that's more where Williams struggles.

I wish him success and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Agree. I hope for the best for Williams but I think he's a tweener. He's not adept enough at coverage to be a safety but not physical or big enough to play LB.

 

[gogeta4]

4th - 7th round they all make about $1M a year for 4 years (if they last that long) with $500k to $1M guaranteed.

All these guys could have made $500k or more coming back to UM with an opportunity to play a second year in the same defense and expand their skills. LT could have improved his motor (or at least faked it for a year), JW could have played LB, KK could have shown some more coverage skills and how to play within the system, Cohen could have gotten stronger and more technically proficient, and maybe Lee with his back injury maxed out.

Your grad school equivalent is doing one year of grad school and then quitting before graduating b/c you got a $150k a year offer right then when if you just finished your degree you could have gotten $200k a year and earned 2-3x more over your lifetime.

who the **** was paying them 500k lol

jw wouldnt have played lb cause he still would of been our better safeties. **** he may not be playing lb in the league i think he just played it at sr bowl to get tape for scheme fits.

Lee and Cohen came here as 1 year rentals i dont know who was expecting multiple out of them its knd of the reason they came here.

KK already has 1st round production on the field.

 

[gogeta4]

You know this board is hilarious. Half those players listed, many, if not most was complaining the whole time they’ve been here.. and now yall worried about they draft status and how they should have stayed.

same EXACT dudes been clowning James and his tackling are on hee crying about he should of came back here to play...Linebacker. Man i never take these dudes seriously. They are forever butthhurt on the players they supposedly are fans of.

 

[gogeta4]

Considering Williams is being looked at solely at LB in the league, you don't think coming back for a year to play LB for a year wouldn't have helped JW? Your points about "only considers the most positive outcome" and "progression is not linear" are not lost on me. In the case of Williams, I think it's different than Kam and to a lesser degree LT. Kam wasn't going to move up much at all if he came back - safeties don't get drafted as high as they used to - and probably risked sliding a bit. LT is LT at this point and I don't feel like offending his fan club right now. If JW came back and played LB, I believe the upside far outweighs the potential slippage. If I was a GM (I'm not and I know that I'm not qualified to be one), there's no way I would take him higher than 5th round (if at all) because I would be drafting a complete unknown. I can't be in the minority on this thinking either with regard to passing on him.

Who told u the bolded?.

Also a perswon tht has NEVER played LB would e coming back here in the hopes of starting at LB with one of the positions definately gone to Kiko and the other with a ton of guys about to battle Wes for it.

If James came back he would be our starting...SAFETY again.

If hes drafted int he 5th round so be it.

Hes about to live his dream of being a professional player i dont think hes going undrafted so.

 

[RozayCane]

same EXACT dudes been clowning James and his tackling are on hee crying about he should of came back here to play...Linebacker. Man i never take these dudes seriously. They are forever butthhurt on the players they supposedly are fans of.

Brooo facts