Pitt -5.5

[Awsi Dooger]

BTW, check the power ratings to understand why Pittsburgh is favored by that amount. Betting odds are solely related to real-time blend of the most reputable power rating sources, and amended by the home field advantage, if any.

That's all it is. Nothing else. Las Vegas doesn't know a **** thing and doesn't care about a **** thing. They steal power ratings and use them to stick numbers on the board. They do that robotically in every sport all year long. It doesn't have to be precise to the power rating. They might shade a point one way or the other depending on some recent trend or variable. Then the bettors might choose to shift a little bit either way. That is base normalcy. But power ratings are the engine behind everything.

There was one genius in particular here who loved to mock the notion that betting odds were solely related to power ratings. He was making a fool of himself every time. Whenever someone raves about how close Las Vegas came to the outcome, they are raving about Jeff Sagarin and Ken Massey, etc. Their mathematical formulas gauge team strength over time and slowly adjusted by recent results.

Power rankings like first to last are entirely different than power ratings.. Power rankings are subjective garbage and invariably overreact to recent results. That Andrea Adelson creation today was a classic example of fluff subjective power rankings.

 

[Johnson3]

Hardly. There are widespread examples in college football. That is the most blatant one involving the Canes.

I got burned several times in Las Vegas by the same scenario...last second time outs to kick an otherwise meaningless field goal to cover the spread. Most notably was Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin in the mid '90s. I had the game in the middle until that kick.

College coaches want to keep the alumni happy, if possible. Barry Switzer had a sickened look on his face in the Orange Bowl one year when Nebraska scored as time expired to cut the deficit from 14 to 7. The spread was Oklahoma -11. I believe that was the 1978 season. One announcer didn't understand why Switzer didn't look happy. He just won a major bowl game. The other announcer laughed. He knew.

You almost never see it in the pros

If their team loses, no coach is going to feel better because their team covered the spread.

Some coaches might care if their team covers the spread when they win, but even that’s pretty seldom. Look at Nick Saban in last year’s OU game. The spread was about 14 and his team had the ball up 11 at about the OU 5 yard line. He kneed out the game.

Meyer is the rare type of brash coach who might care about covering the spread. And it hasn’t exactly been proven that he kicked the FG in order to cover the spread, although it’s a little hard to figure out why else he kicked the FG. The only alternate explanation I can think of is that Meyer heard about the 1981 (1982?) game where Schellenberger kicked an equally pointless FG as time expired in order to punish obnoxious UF fans, and Meyer wanted to get revenge on UM for that.

 

[coffeecane]

Make kicks win. Miss kicks lose.

 

[CaliFLACane850]

After seeing what Pitt did to Syracuse, our Quarterbacks are in trouble. Perry and Williams might get knocked out the box in the same game. Maybe we will finally see Tate get some burn. **** with how this season has been, he might get knocked out the game too.

 

[AutoCANE]

Make kicks win. Miss kicks lose.

= Lose.

Obviously.

 

[Johnson3]

Agreed. There's no rhyme or reason to anything.

The one thing we can be sure of is we'll look pretty bad most of the time.

The UVA game showed that Diaz will look bad even when he’s beating a top 20 team and it barely goes down to the wire.

I agree that even if we beat Pitt, we’ll look bad in doing so.

 

[Johnson3]

Another easy money line for the canes. If you follow the lines the last few weeks, you know that Vegas is way off on these things. Take the points. Pitt covers by a TD.

Actually Vegas is getting everybody to bet on the wrong side of Canes games. About 75% of bets in the Miami-UVA game were on UVA. A similar % of bets in the GT Miami game were on Miami. Vegas loves the Canes because they’re making bettors broke.

This actually shows that Vegas is good at setting Canes lines.

 

[Cribby]

If I’m following the cane juju correctly we at least cover or win, why? Because they haven’t made any sense all year.

Majority of the folks here had Bronco running a ****ing orgy on manny.

Do the opposite of what makes sense and you’ll make money on these chumps.

 

[Dude]

Yes. It’s a complete rebuild. We have to learn how to lose before we learn how to win. Everyone had a bad training camp. Growing Pains. Etc etc etc

When you type "learn how to lose" please use this face like Manny did as if youre saying something really insightful.

 

[Dude]

we lose by at least two scores.

Oh man!!! Ha! We gonna be set for 2020 after learning to lose () to Pitt by 14. Glory days just around the corner! Too many positive things for this guy to panic!!!

 

[datcaneguy]

we Win it’ll be close. We lose it’ll be a blowout

 

[ThomasM]

Gotta learn to lose a noon game on the road, as we've already learned to lose one at home.

 

[Uom2001]

This is trending to a blowout as the week goes on and more comes out. Feels like it's due...

 

[Canenable]

We will not cover the spread over Pitt:

1) Noon kickoff, we don't wake up until 2 or 3 pm
2) Road game, Manny has not won one yet
3) Pitt's homecoming game
4) Pitt can score, consistently, we can't

 

[swampcougar1]

Very telling. So little respect we are now being picked as home coming foe

 

[AUcane]

Actually Vegas is getting everybody to bet on the wrong side of Canes games. About 75% of bets in the Miami-UVA game were on UVA. A similar % of bets in the GT Miami game were on Miami. Vegas loves the Canes because they’re making bettors broke.

This actually shows that Vegas is good at setting Canes lines.

i was taking it from a different perspective. If you’re looking to make money, the lines against VT and GT were sure fire money makers. This line is a big swing from the GT line but i expect Pitt to cover easy. Like cribby said, though, this team is all over the place

 

[gogeta4]

i will lay a few hundred on pitt. Their dline will run a train on the crew we will trot out. Our offense also plays right into their wheelhouse with the prostyle.

If Gt could run on us..Pitt will with much better backs and a better OL. They may win this by 2 scores honestly

 

[ssvir]

Another easy money line for the canes. If you follow the lines the last few weeks, you know that Vegas is way off on these things. Take the points. Pitt covers by a TD.

If Pitt is covering by a TD in your opinion then you should LAY the 5.5 points.

 

[ssvir]

We will not cover the spread over Pitt:

1) Noon kickoff, we don't wake up until 2 or 3 pm
2) Road game, Manny has not won one yet
3) Pitt's homecoming game
4) Pitt can score, consistently, we can't

#3 Pitt will have 25,000 people in the stands. They have pathetic attendance that makes Hard Rock look like a packed Ohio Stadium.
#4 What? They scored 14 vs UVA, 20 vs Ohio, 10 vs Penn St, 35 vs UCF, 17 vs Delaware, 33 vs Duke, and 27 vs Cuse. Hardly any consistency.

 

[MIA42178]

Will Manny spin losing by 3 as positive sign as we still covered the spread?

Did you see their DL vs Syracuse?
We’ll be lucky to get out of there w our 3rd string QB being ambulatory.