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Passing on 1st Down

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#1cane said:
Some percentage of the play falls on the QB. He reads the box and checks from a bad running call to a pass play. All these coaches talk about is numbers and mismatches. Second and 10 is not what you want to be in.
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Nothing in the OP suggests otherwise. We threw and ran the ball out of RPO calls against UAB. The original post's last line advocates for a slight uptick (we're already at 44%) on 1st down passing out of RPOs and short rolls and underneath (flats) throws.
 
LuCane said:
Hope to see more of it and in a varied way starting this Saturday.

Against UAB, if my notes are correct, we ran:
34 1st down plays (of 78 total plays).
Of those, 19 were runs (debatable on a couple QB runs).
The remaining 15 were passes (one ended up in a King scramble/run TD).

Of the 15 passes, here are the results:

1. Pass Holding on Wiggins +10 yards
2. Pass to Wiggins +11 yards
3. Pass resulted in scramble for +12 yards (TD)
4. Pass incomplete to Harley
5. Pass completed to Wiggins +5 yards
6. Pass incomplete to Harley
7. Pass completed to Harley +6 yards
8. Pass completed to Pope +15 yards
9. Pass incomplete
10. Pass incomplete to Payton
11. Pass completed to Harley +8 yards
12. Pass completed to Jordan +25 yards
13. Pass completed to Payton +13 yards
14. Pass incomplete, UAB Pass Interference +10 yards
15. Pass (Perry) incomplete to Redding

It doesn't take deep analytics to conclude the 1st down passing play success rate is disproportionately positive in comparison to 1st down runs. Lashlee does a good job showing balance. Would love to see us tick up from 44% to over 50% and use underneath throws, rolls and RPOs to make it happen.
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We did ALOT of work with RPOs and play action last year.. These same WR had career days










 
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The Franchise said:
Lu, if you start chucking it more on 1st, how do you think that affects the level of success we saw against UAB? In other words, the more you do something, the more it is expected, and the less you catch the opponent off guard with it.

Personally, I love the throw game, and I think that our TEs can be a HUGE advantage for us that we almost didn't use at all last week. So many weapons on O that we could truly make it a "pick your poison" type offense if we start mixing it up and spreading it around.
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1st half
We had 7 first half drives. We went 3 and out twice. We opened with a pass on 5 of those 7. We went 3 and out on only one drive of the 5 we opened up with a pass.

2nd half
We had 6 second half drives. We went 3 and out once (started out with a run). We opened up with a pass on 3 of those 6 drives.

To answer your question, I think it depends on the nature of the 1st down pass call. I like the occasional (especially early) 1st down deep throw. I don't like how we did it under Enos, which entailed a PA deep drop and often got us into absurd down and distance. Other layers of context: (1) are we rolling out King and giving him the easier option to take off for positive yards, (2) are we opening up the screen game to our RBs, (3) are we pulling the ball on the RPOs (we did a couple times successfully against UAB, but that's read dependent).

I'm not asking for us to be 2/3 and 3/4 pass first on 1st down. Like I said in the OP, I liked Lashlee's balance. I just hope it ticks up a tiny bit over 50% (from 44%). In 2019, the Kansas City Chiefs passed 57% of the time on 1st downs. Of course, they have Patrick Mahomes (although they RPO a bunch, too). But, I'm asking for RPOs and rollouts, so that gives King an option to take off or handoff, too.
 
Bird4um said:
Would love to know how the series ended if we had incomplete on first down.
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Check my response above in post #26 for a part of the answer.

In the first half, we started out with an incomplete pass on 1st down once. It ended up with a 9 play drive. We actually got stopped on that drive because we got into a 2nd and 12 out of a -2 yard run. That led to another 2 yard loss on a throw to CHarris and a rough 3rd and 14. On that long 3rd down, we had a misfire to Payton.

In the second half, we had an incomplete pass at the end of the first drive. On 2nd and 10 (from UAB's 11 yard line), King was stopped for -1 yards. On 3rd and 11, there was another incomplete pass. We kicked a 25 yard FG. We had another incomplete pass on 1st down in the 2nd half, but it was a holding penalty on UAB, which resulted in +10 for us.

Overall, pretty successful. Of course, risk/reward with down and distance. Again, not advocating for 2/3 or 3/4 pass on 1st down. We are already pretty well-balanced at 44%. I'm hoping for anywhere from 50-55%.
 
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dirtyred786 said:
PA pass. Enos never committed to the run which is what we need to do this season.
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I've advocated for more establishing the run more on numerous posts. It doesn't contradict what I'm advocating for in the OP. You don't have to "establish" the run by running the ball on first down a disproportionate amount of the time. If Lashlee is already showing a relatively balanced approach on 1st down (44% passing) and I'm hoping for 50-55%, it's not much of an uptick.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Not to derail too much here, but I'm fairly confident that King was instructed to give on virtually every zone read. Manny and Lashlee's comments back that up too. Both spoke to "making statements" and things of the like. You do that by pounding with your backs, not getting your QB on the edge.

Watching the game back, there were several plays where not only was the correct read to pull, but King really wasn't even selling the fact that he was making a decision. They were just slightly longer in duration handoffs. There was no riding the back and reading. He was just handing the football to the backs on the zone read action. I'd bet money that was a major part of the gameplan and King was instructed what to do.

Me thinks that changes a lot on Saturday.

As far as what you said, it's been proven over and over again that throwing on 1st and 10 is a very high efficiency decision. I know Lashlee wants to establish the run, and the strength of his team is his backs and his QBs legs, but even if they're extensions of the run game, I would like to see AT LEAST 50% passes to runs on 1st and 10. Minimum.
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Just watching the game it seemed pretty clear, and then Diaz and Lashlee's statements later solidified the fact, that they wanted to put an emphasis on exerting their will and focusing on the running game. That was their game plan and strategy for that game. I don't understand why so many saw that one game, the first game of the season, against a G5 team, and acted like it was evidence that our offense is limited and we won't have a strong passing game.
 
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dk72 said:
Just watching the game it seemed pretty clear, and then Diaz and Lashlee's statements later solidified the fact, that they wanted to put an emphasis on exerting their will and focusing on the running game. That was their game plan and strategy for that game. I don't understand why so many saw that one game, the first game of the season, against a G5 team, and acted like it was evidence that our offense is limited and we won't have a strong passing game.
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Because Canes fans
 
LuCane said:
Hope to see more of it and in a varied way starting this Saturday.

Against UAB, if my notes are correct, we ran:
34 1st down plays (of 78 total plays).
Of those, 19 were runs (debatable on a couple QB runs).
The remaining 15 were passes (one ended up in a King scramble/run TD).

Of the 15 passes, here are the results:

1. Pass Holding on Wiggins +10 yards
2. Pass to Wiggins +11 yards
3. Pass resulted in scramble for +12 yards (TD)
4. Pass incomplete to Harley
5. Pass completed to Wiggins +5 yards
6. Pass incomplete to Harley
7. Pass completed to Harley +6 yards
8. Pass completed to Pope +15 yards
9. Pass incomplete
10. Pass incomplete to Payton
11. Pass completed to Harley +8 yards
12. Pass completed to Jordan +25 yards
13. Pass completed to Payton +13 yards
14. Pass incomplete, UAB Pass Interference +10 yards
15. Pass (Perry) incomplete to Redding

It doesn't take deep analytics to conclude the 1st down passing play success rate is disproportionately positive in comparison to 1st down runs. Lashlee does a good job showing balance. Would love to see us tick up from 44% to over 50% and use underneath throws, rolls and RPOs to make it happen.
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Defense are more predictable on 1st down, especially mid field between the 25 yard markers.1st down passes to stop/hook routes are money, same with, as Louisville and UAB do, PA bootlegs to drag.

This is the 1st OC that I'm quite confident that he knows this. I don't mind being slightly more run heavy on 1st down then 50% is a good percentage and allow you to have bigger windows and separation on the back end and make for the ability to hit the deep shots easier.
 
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dk72 said:
Just watching the game it seemed pretty clear, and then Diaz and Lashlee's statements later solidified the fact, that they wanted to put an emphasis on exerting their will and focusing on the running game. That was their game plan and strategy for that game. I don't understand why so many saw that one game, the first game of the season, against a G5 team, and acted like it was evidence that our offense is limited and we won't have a strong passing game.
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Yeah. I'd go a step further and hope we run the ball just as much regardless of opponent. After all, it's Rhett Lashlee, the Malzahn disciple, as I said in my post-game thread. It's a good thing to run the ball a lot. It's also a good thing Lashlee is already throwing the ball a good amount on 1st down. It'll help King.
 
Arehel said:
RPOs and zone reads are different.

I swear I'm gonna copy and paste this every time I see it now.
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We did run RPO in the first game, though. Not that you're saying otherwise. We actually threw successfully from an RPO call a couple times. Off the top of my head, I think one to Harley. I expect to see it used for the pass game more on Saturday.
 
LuCane said:
We did run RPO in the first game, though. Not that you're saying otherwise. We actually threw successfully from an RPO call a couple times. Off the top of my head, I think one to Harley. I expect to see it used for the pass game more on Saturday.
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Agreed, saw bubble screens on backside of the zone blocking a few times.
TV blocked out more of that.
 
LuCane said:
Yeah. I'd go a step further and hope we run the ball just as much regardless of opponent. After all, it's Rhett Lashlee, the Malzahn disciple, as I said in my post-game thread. It's a good thing to run the ball a lot. It's also a good thing Lashlee is already throwing the ball a good amount on 1st down. It'll help King.
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Same I’m cool with running the rock a ton.

A good balance would be like 2019 OSU and 2019 Oklahoma.
 
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