Passing on 1st Down

LuCane · Sep 17, 2020

Hope to see more of it and in a varied way starting this Saturday.

Against UAB, if my notes are correct, we ran:
34 1st down plays (of 78 total plays).
Of those, 19 were runs (debatable on a couple QB runs).
The remaining 15 were passes (one ended up in a King scramble/run TD).

Of the 15 passes, here are the results:

1. Pass Holding on Wiggins +10 yards
2. Pass to Wiggins +11 yards
3. Pass resulted in scramble for +12 yards (TD)
4. Pass incomplete to Harley
5. Pass completed to Wiggins +5 yards
6. Pass incomplete to Harley
7. Pass completed to Harley +6 yards
8. Pass completed to Pope +15 yards
9. Pass incomplete
10. Pass incomplete to Payton
11. Pass completed to Harley +8 yards
12. Pass completed to Jordan +25 yards
13. Pass completed to Payton +13 yards
14. Pass incomplete, UAB Pass Interference +10 yards
15. Pass (Perry) incomplete to Redding

It doesn't take deep analytics to conclude the 1st down passing play success rate is disproportionately positive in comparison to 1st down runs. Lashlee does a good job showing balance. Would love to see us tick up from 44% to over 50% and use underneath throws, rolls and RPOs to make it happen.

supersaiyanshel · Sep 17, 2020

Content I'm here for.

siulrc · Sep 17, 2020

awesome work!

OrangeBowlMagic · Sep 17, 2020

Not to derail too much here, but I'm fairly confident that King was instructed to give on virtually every zone read. Manny and Lashlee's comments back that up too. Both spoke to "making statements" and things of the like. You do that by pounding with your backs, not getting your QB on the edge.

Watching the game back, there were several plays where not only was the correct read to pull, but King really wasn't even selling the fact that he was making a decision. They were just slightly longer in duration handoffs. There was no riding the back and reading. He was just handing the football to the backs on the zone read action. I'd bet money that was a major part of the gameplan and King was instructed what to do.

Me thinks that changes a lot on Saturday.

As far as what you said, it's been proven over and over again that throwing on 1st and 10 is a very high efficiency decision. I know Lashlee wants to establish the run, and the strength of his team is his backs and his QBs legs, but even if they're extensions of the run game, I would like to see AT LEAST 50% passes to runs on 1st and 10. Minimum.

Fluffhead · Sep 17, 2020

Really solid analysis, and admittedly a surprising end result. Watching the game live, it felt like there were very few passes on 1st down to the point that my brother made a comment that it felt like a Richt progression of run, run, pass. Glad to see that was not actually the case,

Cane44 · Sep 17, 2020

feel like we've been running on first down for 15years... and to top that halfback dives up the centers butt.

swampcougar1 · Sep 17, 2020

Big plus on offense is keep the defense guessing no matter down or yardage situation. Seemingly last year fans and opposing defense knew what next play would be before it was even called. Glad to see balance between pass and run on first down

dirtyred786 · Sep 17, 2020

Enos is that you?

Bird4um · Sep 17, 2020

Would love to know how the series ended if we had incomplete on first down.

Rellyrell · Sep 17, 2020

Lu, been saying this for yrs. The reason why it’s so successful is b/c typically 85% of the teams would run it on 1st down, so it catches the defense off guard. Passing on 1st Downs keeps a defense honest, too. With King at QB, there should be no reason why not to exploit this. Now, the defense should have to worry about 3 facets on 1st: The Pass, The Run, The Scramble. Would love to see us be more aggressive and either move the chains or put the defense in no man’s land on a 2nd & short.

Cribby · Sep 17, 2020

I’ll repeat myself “ te’s will have a big day”. Play action game!!

#1cane · Sep 17, 2020

Some percentage of the play falls on the QB. He reads the box and checks from a bad running call to a pass play. All these coaches talk about is numbers and mismatches. Second and 10 is not what you want to be in.

DTP · Sep 17, 2020

Considering we only attempted what, 25 passes? That's a pretty good ratio of first down throws. You're definitely most likely to catch the defense off guard on first downs and I like the philosophy of trying to set up manageable third downs. One of the things that used to frustrate me to no end last year was an insistence on trying to get all ten yards in one play and not just taking what the defense gave them. It's OK to throw a 4 yard pass on first down. It's also OK to run the ball on second down, even if you didn't get a big run on first down. You get three and sometimes four chances to get that ten yards and continue the drive. If it's third and three or four, you've still got your whole playbook to use.

dirtyred786 · Sep 17, 2020

Exactly, a lot of our runs were RPOs. Hand the ball off based on the alignment of the defense.

hydro66 · Sep 17, 2020

ESPN got us winning at 26.5 percentage of winning this game. Why such a low percentage.

The Franchise · Sep 17, 2020

What did they have GT at against FSU?

CANEMC · Sep 17, 2020

It makes the defense play honest and it moves the chains faster.

Deleted member 26015 · Sep 17, 2020

Running on first down is, from an analytics standpoint, the worst thing you can do.

Cribby · Sep 17, 2020

It had to be a lot lower for GT herbs they were close to a two td underdog.

The Franchise · Sep 17, 2020

Lu, if you start chucking it more on 1st, how do you think that affects the level of success we saw against UAB? In other words, the more you do something, the more it is expected, and the less you catch the opponent off guard with it.

Personally, I love the throw game, and I think that our TEs can be a HUGE advantage for us that we almost didn't use at all last week. So many weapons on O that we could truly make it a "pick your poison" type offense if we start mixing it up and spreading it around.

Passing on 1st Down

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