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- Jan 29, 2013
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we've talked about how bad FSU is and what we have to do to win, but what are we struggling in?
saw this posted on FSU board as I was searching for a meltdown thread
"Florida State will be an underdog against Miami this weekend, but the Seminoles will have several areas they can potentially exploit.
The Hurricanes are off to a strong start and are in the top 10 nationally in key statistical categories on offense and defense. But what makes Miami’s performance hard to predict is the lack of quality on the Hurricanes’ schedule so far.
Miami’s highest-ranked opponent based on the S&P+ model is Georgia Tech, which is 55th overall. Whether you’re watching games or sifting through stats, evaluating against the Yellow Jackets, Appalachian State, FAU and FAMU make it nearly impossible to tell what is for real and what isn’t.
(Get*FSU news sent directly to your inbox! Click for*FREE FSU newsletter!)*
But using the information we have at our disposal, here are a few areas where FSU can find success on Saturday.
Power-run game
Miami is allowing only 2.58 yards per carry, which is impressive given that the Hurricanes have faced 44.5 carries per game. That many attempts should theoretically cause Miami’s defense to soften up, but the Hurricanes are only allowing 7.0 points per game in the second half this season.
A few metrics point to some potentially weak parts in Miami’s defense.
The Hurricanes rank first nationally in stuff percentage (runs resulting in a negative gain or 0 yards) but are 77th in Rushing IsoPPP, which measures the explosiveness of runs. Miami has regularly stopped runs, but it ranks in the 60s in runs of 10+ yards allowed, 20+yards allowed and 30+ yards allowed. So the Hurricanes, while stout thus far, can give up some big runs because they play so aggressively.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for 307 yards and 5 TDs in his past two games, and he should be able to find enough room to have a solid stat line.
Pressure Kaaya
Miami QB Brad Kaaya has been extremely efficient on third down this season, completing 16 of 25 passes for 4 touchdowns and 242 yards, giving him a passer rating of 198.11 on third down.
This is a drastic turnaround from last season, when Kaaya had a passer rating of 113.74 on third down.
Now this comes with a caveat. Kaaya has certainly been good when needing to throw the ball (166.32 passer rating on 3rd & 4-6 and a passer rating of 301.77 on 3rd & 6-9), but SBNation’s stats show he has yet to be sacked on passing downs.
Credit Kaaya for developing in this aspect and his offensive line for showing improvement. However, Kaaya hasn’t really been pressured this season. FSU’s sack percentage vs. FBS teams is at 9.76, which is 18th nationally. The Seminoles may have success slowing him if they can generate even a little bit of pressure on passing downs."
Metric match: Finding Miami's weaknesses
I think it's a little skewed, I mean if Jenkins or Jackson make a tackle on that florida atlantic running back then the number is probably a lot better in giving up long runs, we were in the right spot just didn't capitalize
going to be very interesting to see how we handle their rushing game.
It's cool to know we are #1 in the nation in stuff percentage though, that's pretty incredible, especially after playing GT
what do you guys think?
saw this posted on FSU board as I was searching for a meltdown thread
"Florida State will be an underdog against Miami this weekend, but the Seminoles will have several areas they can potentially exploit.
The Hurricanes are off to a strong start and are in the top 10 nationally in key statistical categories on offense and defense. But what makes Miami’s performance hard to predict is the lack of quality on the Hurricanes’ schedule so far.
Miami’s highest-ranked opponent based on the S&P+ model is Georgia Tech, which is 55th overall. Whether you’re watching games or sifting through stats, evaluating against the Yellow Jackets, Appalachian State, FAU and FAMU make it nearly impossible to tell what is for real and what isn’t.
(Get*FSU news sent directly to your inbox! Click for*FREE FSU newsletter!)*
But using the information we have at our disposal, here are a few areas where FSU can find success on Saturday.
Power-run game
Miami is allowing only 2.58 yards per carry, which is impressive given that the Hurricanes have faced 44.5 carries per game. That many attempts should theoretically cause Miami’s defense to soften up, but the Hurricanes are only allowing 7.0 points per game in the second half this season.
A few metrics point to some potentially weak parts in Miami’s defense.
The Hurricanes rank first nationally in stuff percentage (runs resulting in a negative gain or 0 yards) but are 77th in Rushing IsoPPP, which measures the explosiveness of runs. Miami has regularly stopped runs, but it ranks in the 60s in runs of 10+ yards allowed, 20+yards allowed and 30+ yards allowed. So the Hurricanes, while stout thus far, can give up some big runs because they play so aggressively.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for 307 yards and 5 TDs in his past two games, and he should be able to find enough room to have a solid stat line.
Pressure Kaaya
Miami QB Brad Kaaya has been extremely efficient on third down this season, completing 16 of 25 passes for 4 touchdowns and 242 yards, giving him a passer rating of 198.11 on third down.
This is a drastic turnaround from last season, when Kaaya had a passer rating of 113.74 on third down.
Now this comes with a caveat. Kaaya has certainly been good when needing to throw the ball (166.32 passer rating on 3rd & 4-6 and a passer rating of 301.77 on 3rd & 6-9), but SBNation’s stats show he has yet to be sacked on passing downs.
Credit Kaaya for developing in this aspect and his offensive line for showing improvement. However, Kaaya hasn’t really been pressured this season. FSU’s sack percentage vs. FBS teams is at 9.76, which is 18th nationally. The Seminoles may have success slowing him if they can generate even a little bit of pressure on passing downs."
Metric match: Finding Miami's weaknesses
I think it's a little skewed, I mean if Jenkins or Jackson make a tackle on that florida atlantic running back then the number is probably a lot better in giving up long runs, we were in the right spot just didn't capitalize
going to be very interesting to see how we handle their rushing game.
It's cool to know we are #1 in the nation in stuff percentage though, that's pretty incredible, especially after playing GT
what do you guys think?