This is simple. First and foremost IT WILL BE AROUND yearly. Not as much as this year because the immediate eligibility won't be permanent.
The numbers say it will stick around and here's the numbers: About 3 out of 7 households in the US (minority/black/non-Asian) graduate from college.....numbers are similar to those who even make it college in the first place. Why does that matter and how does it impact our transfer thread? Well, think about it, MOST of those kids making up the 30% aren't getting athletic scholarships, so let's just say if half, so 15% (which we know is lower because there's more girls going than guys but even with 15%........how many are coming from poverty stricken situations? If you know like I know because I've been there we can easily say probably 8 out of 10 and that's supported because non-degree households make up the bottom 20% of US wealth scale (btw for perspective the top 1% own over 50% of ALL wealth....let that sink in when thinking about what that bottom 20% looks like in terms of $ and cents).
My point is this: SEC and big bag schools will continue to dominate recruiting, why, because these kids coming out of poverty stricken areas aren't passing up the biggest sum of $$$ that they've likely seen in their lifetime and their parents/handlers/etc are absolutely going to most times tell them to take that $$$ so they're struggle isn't as bad. Once that happens, and a kid is there for 2 maybe 3 years, you have broken promises, money being spread out amongst entire families makes say 200K over 2-3 years not as much as you'd think or big time family problems due to jealousy etc....these kids eventually want to play where they wanted to play to begin with or they now are 2-3 years wiser and don't care AS MUCH about the college bags and want to think about where i'm getting my degree from or I'd like my family to see me play or I badly miss home or I BADLY WANT TO BE AROUND COACHES THAT ACTUALLY GIVE A HOOT ABOUT ME OFF THE FIELD.....the reasons are endless.
Bag game dominates because kids are poor guys, they majority come from families with high school level education/jobs if even that, so when that $$$ is tossed around most of them are taking it no questions asked except "Do I Hear More from you over there?....sold, mom we're going to TX A&M Univ".....couple years in these guys realize they don't want to be there and are ready to make the decision again, but this time without the hardship of watching mom/dad scratch and claw for $12 hour with a househould of 4-5 etc.
Transfer Portal isn't going anywhere and Miami is a program that stands to benefit because our school/booster network just isn't at the same level of your SEC public school programs so that's why if we can keep 2-3 5 star kids home and maybe a dozen 4 star kids along with the 3 star Greg Rousseau gems we will be JUST FINE because once we have about 22-23 HS kids we will supplement our roster with TS types that we should've landed from the get-go but shoot Life Happens and we all get that.
That's why I'm not bashing a kid for going to the SEC etc because this is real life happening out here.....and I been there growing up so I get it. Tough on these kids out here mane....it not always Jamaica level poverty but it's close and really saddening....but that's a diff topic for a diff environment on a diff day.