forums

OT: Hurricane warning

Awsi Dooger said:
Let's just hopes the Canes game is played at the scheduled date next weekend. That is the reference point. It will mean the City of Miami escaped Dorian.

As always there is never enough acknowledgement here or elsewhere regarding all the ramifications of these storms. If the area takes a major hit nobody will care about football.

I have been amazed at the lack of a thread here the past few days. I follow this stuff on the Storm2K website. The UKMET model has been ominous for South Florida throughout. That model is right there with Euro for most respected and has actually surpassed Euro many times, notably with Irma in 2017.

Still many ways for the Miami area to avoid a major hit. The models can't agree due to so many contradictory influences like the strength of that High in the Atlantic. Basically weaker means better for Miami but the Europeans models have suggested stronger, pushing Dorian west. There is also a new obscure system in the Gulf that may play a role.

The Euro model will initialized at about 2 AM. That is what everyone on those tracker sites is waiting for. The afternoon Euro model had a completely bizarre path with Dorian slowing dramatically once beyond the Bahamas and later turning the worst-case WSW, then basically stalling before skirting the southeastern Florida coastline. The 2 AM run will reveal whether or not they are sticking with that. UKMET for days has had Dorian dipping WSW as it reaches the coastline, but in the Broward/Palm Beach area for landfall.
Click to expand...
Why are the European models superior?
 
Advertisement
Euro update dropped the funny loop de loop, primarily because it maintained Dorian's speed over the Bahamas instead of the near-stall from this afternoon.

This is the first time that Euro, UKMET and American (GFS) have basically been in consensus, with a westward track aiming basically at Palm Beach.

However, the average NHC error rate at 72+ hours is more than 75 miles. That's why some posters on those tracking sites say they'd almost rather be in the direct forecast at that point, instead of about 50-100 miles on the most logical side of the late shift.
 
Screen Shot 2019-08-30 at 7.31.22 AM.webp


Euro Model da Gawd says: I spare you Coral Gables
 
Advertisement
Awsi Dooger said:
Euro update dropped the funny loop de loop, primarily because it maintained Dorian's speed over the Bahamas instead of the near-stall from this afternoon.

This is the first time that Euro, UKMET and American (GFS) have basically been in consensus, with a westward track aiming basically at Palm Beach.

However, the average NHC error rate at 72+ hours is more than 75 miles. That's why some posters on those tracking sites say they'd almost rather be in the direct forecast at that point, instead of about 50-100 miles on the most logical side of the late shift.
Click to expand...
So should I pleased that its headed directly for my house right now?
 
After riding out Hurricane Mathew last year here in Panama City, you really don't know what you are getting until it is there. We were first told it was going to be a strong three by landfall, and it ended up being a five. Best you can do is keep an eye on it and follow the information that is given. Either way get yourself prepared, because whoever gets it, it looks like its going to be a slow moving CAT 4. Best thing to happen with Micheal was it was fast moving. Been through a lot of hurricanes, and weak or strong, you hope it moves out quick, and that doesn't look like the case with Dorian.
 
PCBcanefan said:
After riding out Hurricane Mathew last year here in Panama City, you really don't know what you are getting until it is there. We were first told it was going to be a strong three by landfall, and it ended up being a five. Best you can do is keep an eye on it and follow the information that is given. Either way get yourself prepared, because whoever gets it, it looks like its going to be a slow moving CAT 4. Best thing to happen with Micheal was it was fast moving. Been through a lot of hurricanes, and weak or strong, you hope it moves out quick, and that doesn't look like the case with Dorian.
Click to expand...

I've noticed they tend to get stronger than predicted. This is not encouraging.......

 
Advertisement
www.ventusky.com
That's probably the most accurate of the bunch typically speaking. Coming from somebody who has to rely on this to make judgement calls based on storms for his company.
 
Back
Top